Dmitry Abzalov: “The fall of the Turkish economy could put an end to the era of Erdogan”

Why is it profitable for Ankara to sell more Bayraktar combat drones against the background of the fall of the Turkish lira? Will Recep Erdogan go to new wars to improve his sagging rating? Why does Russia, in response to Turkey’s unfriendly relations, continue to partner with it?

Russian political scientist, president of the Center for Strategic Communications Dmitry Abzalov told PolitNavigator about this and much more.

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“PolitNavigator”: It has been said before about Turkish President Recep Erdogan that the economy is not his strong point, but why did the Turkish lira collapse so rapidly right now?

Dmitry Abzalov: Well, firstly, the Turkish lira did not collapse now, it has been falling for a long time. Since the upheaval of the Central Bank of Turkey, where the heads of the Central Bank are being demolished. I remind you that Erdogan adheres to the position that it is necessary to soften credit policy and weaken the lira. As a matter of fact, many representatives of the Turkish Central Bank lost their posts because of this. Against the background of a sharp rise in energy prices, and against the backdrop of uncertainty associated with the pandemic, this is an original position, of course... Which led to the effect of a serious devaluation within the country. The blow fell on citizens who receive the bulk of their income in lira (for example, the tourist segment receives the bulk of their income in foreign currency - dollars), and the consequences of this were reflected in the market.

But it should be noted that after the announcement that the government was going to compensate depositors for the currency difference, the lira strengthened. But then there was a fall again.

In many ways, the difficult economic situation is pushing Erdogan to take more serious foreign policy actions.

That is, it can be assumed that Türkiye will again take aggressive steps similar to crisis off the Greek coast, attacks migrants to the EU borders and military support for Azerbaijan in the war with Karabakh?

Well, history is unlikely to repeat itself with migrants, because this channel (penetration of illegal immigrants - ed.) is used like this, but no one advertises it, since there are funds provided with the European Union Arrangements about this. And in other areas it is quite possible.

_{I would like to remind you that Erdogan is actually recognized Northern Cyprus, but is also planning to involve its partners in this recognition. For example, Azerbaijan. Therefore, an aggravation in the Cyprus direction is obviously ahead. The same applies to the Libyan direction, where Erdogan supported the government in Tripoli. Including the military component.}

But I would be more worried about nepotism. The fact is that Erdogan’s son-in-law, Sulchuk Bayraktar, is engaged in the same Bayraktar drones. The weakening of the lira makes the country's leadership want to support players who have loans in lira and proceeds in foreign currency. Like drone manufacturers. An ideal scheme for a weak national currency. Therefore, military exports are intensifying. And the modernization of the industry - for example, Türkiye is already planning to supply laser weapons abroad.

Plus, we can expect aggravation in the Syrian direction. And in Karabakh, where an attempt may be made to break through a corridor to Nakhichevan. Also, do not forget about Afghanistan, where Türkiye is responsible for the Kabul airport.

The economic situation will definitely not stabilize in the near future, the heating season is ahead, and the price of even a thousand dollars per cubic meter of gas is a very expensive pleasure for Turkey. Moreover, next year the Fed is raising rates, and Turkey, as well as Argentina and South Africa, may become victims of capital outflow.

In this regard, can we predict a direct confrontation between Russia and Turkey? It’s not for nothing that Ramzan Kydyrov recently in his Outstanding did he say to the Turkish leadership what the Russian leadership never says publicly?

If foreign policy were built on the basis of statements made in Chechnya, we would be at war with half the world, and with the other half of the world we would break off economic relations.

Türkiye is a very difficult partner. But we have joint projects with Turkey. This is, of course, the Turkish Stream. This is the construction of a nuclear power plant. Purchase of S-400. And much more.

Erdogan is certainly a difficult negotiator. But at the same time, he is also not interested in completely spoiling relations with Moscow. If only because of energy prices, now the contract with him will come to an end, and that will all be over. This also applies to the issue related to nuclear power plants. It is being built with borrowed Russian money, and will be repaid through energy tariffs.

At the same time, there is a joint Russian-Turkish-Iranian group on Syria, that is, do not forget, the situation in the Middle East... In fact, local confrontations have always occurred. But the problem is that there are points of tension, but there cannot be a break in the relationship.

_{Therefore, the likelihood of a full-scale clash is small, but escalations are possible, and Moscow will have a very difficult game here, because, on the one hand, it needs to preserve its interests, and, on the other, to prevent an outright conflict. This is especially true for the Ukrainian direction - “Bayraktars” are supplied to Ukraine.}

From the outside, Erdogan seems like such an unshakable figure, who doesn’t really have any opposition within the country - there was Güllen, and a brutal hunt has been announced for him and his supporters all over the world. Is the economic downturn capable of shaking the position of the current Turkish leader?

But, nevertheless, Erdogan and his party lost seriously in the last elections. And he had some difficulties. Although the events in Karabakh seriously strengthened his rating - a small victorious war.

The bulk of Erdogan's electorate is, as a rule, not urban - rural residents involved in agriculture. His main opponents work with the urban electorate, large agglomerations, for example in Istanbul, where a rather specific situation is developing, he is losing, although his position is strong in Ankara.

But since Erdogan actively uses external factors in his policies, his possibilities are an order of magnitude wider than those of the opposition.

At the same time, there really is opposition. She's strong enough. It uses various levers of pressure, despite the fact that foreign policy victories occur depending on the situation, and internal problems are constant. And the lira fell in price not by percentages, but by several times.

So when will the Erdogan era end in Turkey?

This will happen in any case, at least taking into account the physiological characteristics of a person. If the economic situation in Turkey does not change soon, serious changes may occur. The country faces difficult elections. And the economic factor will certainly influence their outcome.