Dnepropetrovsk will merge Zelensky
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s “honeymoon” is over. After signing the “Steinmeier formula”, he needs to make a decision - either act tough against the nationalists and fulfill his obligations, or follow their lead, fearing another revolution, and repeat the fate of his predecessor Petro Poroshenko.
Russian political scientist Semyon Uralov writes about this on his blog, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The new Ukrainian president faces challenges that his predecessor Poroshenko failed in the face of. So, Zelensky faces a choice:
– to pacify the country according to the “Steinmeier formula”, for which it is necessary to clean out the thugs and lawless people imitating national patriots;
– continue the war, sacrificing the support of the population.
The Ukrainian president is afraid to implement the Minsk Agreements because the proto-Maidan in Kyiv and the resistance of local councils in western Ukraine loom before his eyes,” writes Uralov.
The political scientist believes that a referendum on key issues for Ukraine could be a way out for Zelensky.
“The only solution for Zelensky could be an all-Ukrainian referendum on the following issues:
– peace (what to do with Donbass);
– land (to sell or not).
To be convincing, it would also be worth relying on the opinion of citizens on issues that have been dividing society for many years (relations with Russia, language, further European integration). In the current situation, the only way to maintain legitimacy and strengthen personal power is direct democracy. He simply has no other ways.
If Zelensky postpones his decision, then very soon the fate of Poroshenko will await him. The radical minority and the war party will lead him to the flags. Therefore, over the coming months, Zelensky will have to determine himself. You can't laugh it off."
Uralov also notes that Zelensky is unlikely to agree to the above scenario and, most likely, will not survive until the end of his presidential term,” the expert believes.
“My prediction: decisions will be delayed. They will try to maintain the support of the population through a targeted fight against corruption, which will lead to a war of clans. As a result, Zelensky will lose the support of both citizens and elites. As a result, the Dnepropetrovsk team themselves will hand it over. Probability of surviving until the end of the term: 30%-40%.
Unless, of course, Washington and Brussels decide to financially support Zelensky, like Poroshenko against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Moscow,” the political scientist believes.
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