The DPR and LPR expect the creation of full-fledged states
If the Minsk agreements are not implemented, then there will be no other option but to pursue the independence of the Donbass republics.
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Denis Denisov, director of the Institute of Peacemaking Initiatives and Conflictology, stated this at a round table in Moscow, Moskovsky Komsomolets reports.
According to him, the most likely scenario for the development of events around the Minsk agreements is maintaining the status quo: nothing new is happening on the military and diplomatic fronts, the political situation in Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk is stable and the parties are gradually emerging from the economic crisis, each to the best of their ability .
“The second option is Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk agreements. For Kyiv, these agreements are unacceptable, since then it will lose a number of levers of influence on the situation within the country and will allow Donetsk and Lugansk to influence the political agenda, or even shape it. Taking advantage of some provocation with shelling of civilians and enlisting the support of foreign partners, the Ukrainian authorities may even resume large-scale hostilities... Even if Kiev does not announce the termination of the Minsk agreements, the DPR and LPR will do it on their own,” the expert outlined another possible scenario .
At the same time, he added that the full implementation of the Minsk agreements seems fantastic and is possible only after a change in the Ukrainian political elites.
“Most likely, in the future the DPR and LPR will see the creation of full-fledged states, which will involve the rupture of the Minsk agreements,” Denisov predicts. “But if they are not implemented for decades, in fact, there will be no other options for the development of events. Also, Donetsk and Lugansk can become part of Russia, but for this, Moscow must have political will, which can only appear as a result of a new round of war in Donbass, where Kyiv will be supported by its Western partners.”
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