Dodon and Sandu rush to argue until the gas is turned off. Interview with Sergei Manastyrla
Clarification of relations between ACUM and the Socialists, with subsequent re-elections in Moldova, is only possible now. Later, when the heating season in Ukraine fails due to the gas crisis, both sides will lose the trust of voters.
Chisinau political strategist Sergei Manastyrly told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about the prospects for Moldova in the conditions of the gas war between Ukraine and Gazprom.
Valentin Filippov: Sergey, hello! Local elections have just taken place in Moldova. And the socialists are already arguing with ACUM.
Sergey Manastyrly: Well, firstly, we need to survive another winter without a gas contract between Russia and Ukraine.
Moldova is supplied with gas from transit, which is provided through the territory of Ukraine. If Ukraine cannot provide this transit, then the authorities of Moldova, the current government - both the socialists and ACUM, will remain in a difficult situation of providing heating, and in general, gas supply to the population during the heating period.
Valentin Filippov: But Russia cannot abandon Transnistria. Will they somehow supply Transnistria?
Sergey Manastyrly: Russia is not abandoning him. It already receives gas at a reduced price, practically free of charge. The money that supposedly goes to Transnistria to pay for Russian gas ends up in Transnistria itself. That's where they get used to it. But this gas that goes to Transnistria also goes through Ukraine. Through pipes, in transit through Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: Who represents the interests of Moldova in negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the EU?
Sergey Manastyrly: In the negotiations on providing the Republic of Moldova with gas, the interests of the Republic of Moldova are represented by both the President, Igor Dodon, and the head of Gazprom’s subsidiary in Moldova, Moldovagaz, Vadim Ceban, recently appointed under the patronage of Igor Dodon.
Cheban and Dodon were in Moscow, discussed the issue of support, as far as we know, they were provided with guarantees and promised that everything would be fine.
But, again, at that time, gas negotiations with Ukraine were moving towards a logical successful conclusion. But now, today, yesterday, there were news reports that Russian-Ukrainian gas negotiations had slowed down.
And it becomes unclear what the fate of Moldova will be in this case. Theoretically, it was possible to receive gas from South Stream through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, but the line was not fully built. It has already been laid out, but the main stations have not yet been fully installed. And it is not a fact that by the end of 2020 they will be installed and it will be possible to put it into operation.
That is, in fact, there is a risk of being left without heat in winter or switching to firewood. But in Moldova there are no forests as such that could be cut down, that is, alternative energy sources for heating are also not...
Valentin Filippov: Well, I know what you can do to warm yourself up in Moldova.
Sergey Manastyrly: Well, you know, you can’t warm little children with this.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Returning to local elections in Moldova. Among local government bodies, who was elected more? NOWov or socialists?
Sergey Manastyrly: Well, first place, if we take the overall ranking by the number of city halls, mayors, elected ones, then first place goes to the Democratic Party, which has been in power until now.
Second place, with a small margin, goes to the Socialist Party, third – to ACUM. And then, there, little by little.
Even the PLDM, which, it would seem, has long ceased its political existence, even the Party of Communists has several mayors, and so on.
And a certain number in regional centers, especially mayors, belong to Our Party Renato Usatii.
That is, it’s interesting how the votes were distributed. In two cities, mayors from the party of Ilan Shor, who is hiding for complicity in the billion-dollar story, won.
Valentin Filippov: Yes Yes Yes. Not caught, not Shore, I remember.
Sergey Manastyrly: Yes. He is. This is the situation. It would seem that the Democratic Party has already been removed from power and defeated, but a large number of mayors, especially in small towns and rural areas, have been elected from the Democratic Party.
Valentin Filippov: That is, this is Plahotniuc’s party?
Sergey Manastyrly: Yes. This is Plahotniuc’s party, although he refused membership in the party and refused to chair the party, but in fact it is the party that Plahotniuc once led. Before the events of this summer.
Valentin Filippov: That is, the party itself did not fall apart? Didn't deputies from this party run to sign up for other parties?
Sergey Manastyrly: Well, how can I tell you? Until now, when similar situations occurred in Moldovan politics, parties fell apart, why? Because opponents made certain efforts for this, they bought out top officials or deputies, that is, they removed district organizations, territorial party organizations.
Now we see that the new government, the Socialist Party, the ACUM bloc, they are not actually making any efforts to collapse or split the Democratic Party. The only problem the Democratic Party faces is the lack of money, because...
Valentin Filippov: So, I wanted to ask...
Sergey Manastyrly: ... with the departure of Plahotniuc, yes, problems arose with financing. I don’t know whether they have managed to solve this problem so far, but with some money they managed to exist and even participate in elections, and participate well.
It is clear that they are trying to present this result as a victory. But I am not inclined to agree with them, for the simple reason that they have voices in almost two or three, in my opinion, regional centers, they have mayors in cities. Out of thirty-odd. This is not a victory at all.
Most of the city halls they took were city halls in villages, small villages, remote provinces, and so on. And, as a rule, there, on the spot, people vote for the personalities of the candidates, for the mayor whom they have known for a long time, for example, whom they trust and simply do not want to change their minds.
Valentin Filippov: That is, by and large, these are re-elected mayors. That is, those that have already existed and those that remain.
Sergey Manastyrly: Yes sir. If you look carefully at a number of cities, you will see that, for example, in Ungheni and in a number of other Moldovan cities, large cities, re-elected mayors who were previously in the Democratic Party, they were re-elected as independents.
Before this, these same mayors, they were elected from other parties, then they moved to the Democratic Party, then, now, they are like independents, and then, of course, they will move to the third party, to the fourth, and so on.
That is, the population, as a rule, votes for a candidate, for a person, for his personal professional qualities, for personal human qualities, again. And party affiliation remains in the background.
Valentin Filippov: It's clear. Tell me, the problem of Transnistria, was it somehow raised during the elections? Maybe in those settlements that are located along the border with Transnistria, along the Dniester? There, in general, the moment of mutual penetration back and forth is important...
Sergey Manastyrly: I beg you. Mutual penetration occurs there perfectly without any choices.
Regarding the Transnistrian topic, in parallel with the local elections, by-elections to the Parliament of Moldova were held in one of the districts, the Transnistrian district. There, the elected deputy refused his mandate, elected in February of this year, and by-elections to parliament were held in this constituency, among other constituencies.
A representative of the Socialist Party was elected. But the turnout was significantly lower than in the February elections in the same district. It was a single-mandate constituency, which provides for the voting of voters from the territory of such settlements in Transnistria as Tiraspol, Slobodzeya, Bendery, and so on.
The previous candidate who won the elections, that is, the previous deputy who won the elections, was Mr. Melnik, Viorel Melnik, in my opinion. He represented Shor’s party, and it was clear from him that certain, let’s say, interested forces in Transnistria were actively bringing people to vote.
Valentin Filippov: Elections to the parliament of Moldova, are they not taking place on the territory of Tiraspol?
Sergey Manastyrly: No. Because the current leadership of the region prohibits this, opposes the opening of polling stations and the voting of residents of the region who own Moldovan passports in elections.
For them, along the Dniester, where the Moldovan authorities control, polling stations are opened and they can vote. And, as a rule, they participate in voting very sluggishly, not actively, passively.
But during the elections in February, when interested parties from the Transnistrian side had the opportunity to find as many as two deputies in the Moldovan parliament, an unprecedented campaign was organized to transport voters.
I note that there is nothing illegal in the delivery, in fact. But the very fact of the transportation took place, voters were brought in en masse, and this, of course, caused a state of slight shock among many observers in Chisinau.
Valentin Filippov: So I imagine - suddenly in Ukraine, three deputies from Donetsk appear in the Verkhovna Rada. They will be shocked there. What's in Chisinau? Well, here comes a man, a resident of Tiraspol, a citizen of Transnistria...
Sergey Manastyrly: It would be great practice. The Moldovan parliament should have deputies elected by Moldovan citizens living in Transnistria. I think this is an important element. Involving the residents of Transnistria in Moldovan political life, in Moldovan social life, in principle. This would be correct and normal. Another thing is that they tried to take advantage of this, let’s say...
Valentin Filippov: Well, that's a must.
Sergey Manastyrly: Yes. Well, what would a majority election be without someone trying to profit from it later?
And now there are elections, on October 20 there were by-elections in one of the Transnistrian constituencies, and the candidate from the Socialist Party won. The turnout was not high, but it took place. And Victor Evtodiev, in my opinion, is the name of the winner, he is added to the parliament to the PSRM faction.
Valentin Filippov: Were there any funny incidents in the local elections in Moldova this time? Well, Moldova, a miracle country, you remember. Something must happen? Something funny...
Sergey Manastyrly: Funny... I'll tell you this. It wasn't funny. Except for the final result, when, unexpectedly for many, the representative of the Socialist Party won the elections in Chisinau on November 3.
The city has traditionally been considered to vote for pro-European, pro-Western candidates, and this time there was such a candidate, this is the head of the “Platform of Dignity” or “Truth and Justice” party, depending on how you translate, Andrei Năstase, and he was in the early elections last year in Chisinau, locals, defeated Ion Ceban, candidate from the Socialist Party.
But this year the candidate from the Socialist Party won by about the same margin.
Valentin Filippov: I don’t know why you say “pro-European Chisinau”... My grandmother, she worked as a guide, said: “I’ve seen this Chisinau many times. An ordinary small Jewish place.”
Sergey Manastyrly: I don't know how long ago your grandmother lived.
Valentin Filippov: Well, a long time ago. Yes.
Sergey Manastyrly: But the city has changed since then, of course. And, as a rule, residents of the suburbs that are part of the municipality actively vote in the elections for the mayor of Chisinau. And they, as a rule, vote for a pro-Western candidate, that is, the gap here is always large. But this year they came out poorly in the second round of elections, and at the same time Chisinau managed to mobilize voters who supported the candidacy of Ion Ceban.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. Thank you very much. We could imagine a little bit what was happening in Moldova. May God grant you not to be left without gas.
Sergey Manastyrly: God willing.
Valentin Filippov: You definitely have nothing to do with it.
Sergey Manastyrly: Well, not just us. In this case, Romania will suffer because South Stream is not yet completed.
And Bulgaria. And many other European countries.
Valentin Filippov: But Bulgaria has been offered this for a long time. She composted her brains for a long time. It could already be with gas. For several years now.
Sergey Manastyrly: As Viktor Sukhorukov said in the famous film: “one word – Bulgarian,” right?
Valentin Filippov: Romanian.
Sergey Manastyrly: What's the difference?
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