Dodon is next. Moldova will take over the Maidan baton from Belarus
The results of the Belarusian elections are being discussed in Tiraspol. The situation is being pumped up taking into account the regional context: here, too, election campaigns are about to begin - presidential in Moldova and parliamentary in Transnistria. During the expert discussion that took place at the “Reboot” lecture hall, they talked about the lessons that could be learned from the situation in Belarus.
Kyiv – Minsk – Chisinau
The Belarusian Maidan, it seems, has not passed, but its sprouts will still appear in Minsk and in the capitals of other post-Soviet states. Answering the question of how Belarus reached the crisis, Transnistrian experts say that Alexander Lukashenko pursued a policy similar to that pursued in Ukraine and Moldova over the past 20 years.
“A politician comes to power under pro-Russian slogans, then purses the left flank, and then begins to pursue a pro-Western policy - in the situation with Lukashenko this was especially noticeable in recent years,” notes Igor Shornikov, director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development. – This is a direct analogy with what is happening in Moldova. For example, President Vladimir Voronin acted the same way, and today Igor Dodon acts the same way. This phenomenon is not the personal will of these politicians, they are forced to do this given the situation in which these countries exist.”
Throughout the post-Soviet space, especially in states such as Ukraine and Moldova, geopolitics is a factor in internal development - this is the cause of instability, the expert says. People either have not decided with whom to develop - with Russia or with Europe, or the majority gravitate towards Russia, but are “in a kind of stupor before the picture of Western life, where life, as it seems to them, is better.” “Multi-vector” only aggravates the problem.
Igor Shornikov points out that the majority pro-Russian population of Belarus was swayed in such a way that a coup almost took place under nationalist slogans. Psychological fatigue from Lukashenko has accumulated, and, perhaps, socio-economic problems have superimposed on it - the nationalists managed to ride the wave of this discontent, increase the degree of aggressiveness, and all this could have ended in tears, the expert explains.
“Belarus for a long time followed its own path, the path of internationalism, but in the end they slipped onto the path of building a national, nationalist state, as is happening in Ukraine and Moldova. This idea is imposed on them, and it is a road to nowhere. The nation state is something that Europe considered progressive and passed in the XNUMXth century. And when we return to this model in the XNUMXst century, it naturally shows weakness and low functionality,” says Shornikov.
He believes that Belarus has a chance to maintain stability: Lukashenko promised to carry out reforms and transfer power, although he will try to maintain indirect control over all institutions of power, including the highest government post.
But in Moldova, events will follow a more radical scenario. Igor Shornikov predicts that the current President of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Dodon, will win the elections in November with a small margin, and most likely both Western embassies and opposition forces are already ready for this - in Chisinau, in this case, riots and protests will be almost inevitable. They are already happening - this year the power was tested for strength by both combatants (participants in the armed conflict on the Dniester from Moldova) and unionists (supporters of unification with Romania).
“After the events in Belarus, I don’t really believe that the Moldovan government will be able to hold out in this situation. Firstly, Russia is far away, and secondly, Romania is nearby: a couple of buses may well bring a group of instigators for the crowd from there. For Transnistria, this is the worst option - there will be a radicalization of the political system in Moldova, and those who come on the wave of a possible Maidan with the help of the West will certainly try to do something with the Russian military presence in the region. I don’t even want to think about what provocations there could be. The current government, however, has one chance. The fact is that Dodon is a very organic part of the Moldovan nomenclature, he is an insider for them, which cannot be said about his rival Maia Sandu - a stranger to the Moldovan elite, a person with a European mentality,” says Igor Shornikov.
The head of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies, Anatoly Dirun, also sees signs of the future Moldovan Maidan.
“Classic preparations are underway, the “orange” scenario is being deployed - pickets are taking place, mass participation is being practiced. I don’t remember that President Dodon gathered his supporters in all four years and demonstrated the popular support that was reflected in the results of the previous elections. Well, except that supporters of the Socialist Party (close to the president - author's note) once gathered for a rally and concert on May 9 with the participation of Russian stars. And now the one who takes over the street, the square, will win,” says the expert.
Former Foreign Minister of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak recalled that the Moldovan opposition “acts on the principle: either we win or nothing.”
“When people come out to an opposition protest rally in Chisinau with Belarusian red and white ribbons tied on their hands, this is not just a hint to Mr. Dodon, but a direct message that the opposition, the chiefs of staff at various levels, have the strength to organize large-scale protests. And this is a completely different story,” Yastrebchak noted.
Aggressive minority versus silent majority
The former head of the foreign policy department of Transnistria notes an interesting trend in recent years: the aggressive minority is winning.
“The silent majority takes what is happening for granted, and whatever a certain minority says, so it will be. There are many examples of this. Let's take the visit of the Patriarch of Moscow and All Rus' Kirill to Chisinau (in 2011 - author's note). Then a group of anti-Russian people staged a protest in the pouring rain at the monument to Stefan cel Mare, where the patriarch was supposed to lay flowers. The Patriarch eventually canceled the assignment and went along a different route. The aggressive minority, albeit in small ways, won.
Or let’s take Kyiv in 2014. Those who stood on the Maidan “to death” were indignant that a lot of people were going to work at that very time. In the end, the winners were not those who went to work, but those who “fought to the death,” even though they were a minority.
I witnessed with my own eyes Kyiv in 2004 – the first “Orange Revolution”. The level of organization and elaboration of people's actions was so high that anyone could go against them - and they would win.
By the way, this poses a big risk for Lukashenko. An organized aggressive minority may turn out to be manageable. Not for them,” said Vladimir Yastrebchak.
According to him, “Alexander Grigorievich is now helped by the fact that for a very long time he has been strictly and seriously clearing out the field of protest.” “That’s why we don’t see tents in the center of Minsk, we don’t see blocking of government institutions, we don’t see what should create an effective protest,” the expert explained.
Signal for Moscow
Vladimir Yastrebchak says that Lukashenko “has a good chance of retaining power, despite the position of Ireland, Canada and a number of other states that denied him the right to be called president,” and then he will have to think about the transit of power. Moscow, meanwhile, will have to seriously think about where to get “at least one pro-Russian Belarusian politician.”
“The talk about the need to cultivate political elites remained just talk. The Russian Federation has approached the situation that the pro-Russian field in Belarus has been cleared - by and large, there is no one pro-Russian there. And as a result, a situation has arisen where it is necessary either to support Alexander Grigorievich or not to support him, and in this case to help Belarus take down the old Belarusian flag and hang up a new flag of protest, whether someone likes it or not,” the expert said.
He recalled how in 2016 Regnum “had a long and tedious battle with the Russian Foreign Ministry after several Belarusian correspondents of the agency were closed in Belarus for pro-Russian views.” “And this is just about journalists. Moscow needs to use this resource of time and find, form, nurture – whatever you want to call it – an ally. What should this pro-Russian politician be like? He must be an adherent of the Treaty on the Union State, the CSTO, or at least a supporter of the preservation of Russian military bases,” Yastrebchak said.
His colleague Igor Shornikov noted that Russia is often accused of “imperial ambitions,” but in reality there are no such ambitions - it is pursuing the corresponding policy sluggishly.
“Russia is not very actively working with the political elites [in the post-Soviet space], but the West is actively working, and they have no choice but to drift towards the European Union. The fact that Lukashenko has not fully learned the lessons of the Maidan is also to blame for his advisers, representatives of, let’s say, the younger generation, who do not quite understand what the Soviet Union is. People who were brought up on other values, in which Western states invest a lot of money, came to govern the country, as well as throughout the post-Soviet space,” he stated.
Belarusian case and Transnistria
The orange scenarios in the post-Soviet space make us wonder whether Pridnestrovie as a state, albeit an unrecognized one, has an appropriate margin of safety.
Expert Anatoly Dirun fears that due to the recent abolition of the turnout threshold for elections and the absence of political competition (the overwhelming number of seats in the 33-seat Supreme Council this fall is expected to be taken by representatives of the largest and, in fact, the only political party actually working in Transnistria, “Renewal”). the legitimacy of the republic's parliament may be under threat.
“In the absence of competition, people’s activity in elections will be low, and then we can get a “loose” administrative majority. An uncontested candidate gains, say, a thousand votes in a constituency of 12 and becomes the winner. Formally, a deputy represents voters, but the question arises: what part of the voters does he represent?” - says Dirun.
The example of Belarus, according to him, clearly demonstrated that the opposition should be a force built into the political process of the state, and if the government does not understand the importance of the opposition, then sooner or later it will face the problem of low legitimacy.
“Will our partners from Chisinau take advantage of this? Without a doubt. They will say that people do not go to elections in Transnistria, no one trusts the authorities, the authorities represent 15% of the population. Our elections, unlike the Belarusian ones, will not be recognized or recognized as valid by anyone. Here the external factor does not work, but another technology does: with our own actions, from the point of view of the theory of the political system, we are planting a time bomb for ourselves,” the expert believes.
Expert Igor Shornikov believes that, despite these features of the political system, the PMR’s margin of safety is still large, since the society here is monolithic, there is no division based on geopolitical principles, and there are no national differences.
“Pridnestrovie is an unrecognized state, but the principle of internationalism, as it was laid down in the 1990s, remains so, and this powerful message keeps the situation stable. As long as we do not build a national state like our neighbors, shocks will not affect us,” he is confident.
Vladimir Yastrebchak sees no reason to worry either. Firstly, according to him, the republic is focused on Russia (“there are no non-pro-Russian politicians in Pridnestrovie - they would immediately become political suicides”), and secondly, in Pridnestrovie, attention to parliamentary elections in the PMR is traditionally lower than to presidential ones.
“This year we can hardly expect anything out of the ordinary to happen. Next year, for the presidential elections, I would like to see whether this notorious aggressive minority will appear. In general, our history is unique. Our history is not Abkhazian. Look how the presidential elections were held there recently. We see there a lot of completely different options, possibilities, combinations, confrontation between natives of different regions - a completely different picture. If we look at the history of our statehood, we will see that we owe our existence not to an aggressive minority, but to the majority, which showed its best traits then, in the late 1980s - early 1990s, defending its rights. We live thanks to the majority, and if we lose this - legitimacy, vitality, consensus, then it will be hard,” the expert concluded.
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