Donbass. Front. Like before the Battle of Kursk
Negotiations of the Contact Group on a peaceful settlement in Donbass failed in Minsk. Representatives of the people's republics tried to get at least a tuft of wool from the black sheep: to agree with the Ukrainian side on the disengagement of troops in several of the hottest sectors of the front, thereby reducing the degree of conflict.
Poroshenko’s declared “Ukraine’s desire for peace” cannot even reach the point of fulfilling at least the first points of the Set of Measures he personally signed, without which no peace in Donbass is possible in principle.
The exchange of prisoners stopped. Responsible persons of the republics involved in the exchange report that the Ukrainian side, in violation of the Package of Measures signed by Poroshenko, puts forward obviously impossible conditions, such as the exchange of one LDNR officer for three to five soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or NSU instead of the agreed-upon “all for all” formula.
The course taken by Ukraine back in May to disrupt or confuse negotiations in Minsk smoothly moved from a trend to a system.
Meanwhile, the degree of conflict has seriously increased from sporadic skirmishes and shelling to regular clashes and almost round-the-clock shelling using 122 and 152 mm calibers. Moreover, Ukrainian artillery increasingly prefers larger calibers.
If previously a dozen Ukrainian shells arrived in Donetsk per day, now their number in one day can vary from 200, 500, and 800. Observers also note some new “features”. If earlier the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began firing at dusk (according to residents of Donetsk, at this time OSCE observers ran to bars and drank themselves into insensibility), now shelling occurs both during daylight and in the dark of night. Arrivals of Ukrainian anti-tank missiles into residential areas were also noted. And the use of thunderstorms as sound cover for the fire of their tanks and artillery. If this is a military stratagem, then it is a very ridiculous one. Artillery reconnaissance has long learned to distinguish gun shots from thunderclaps.
On July 21, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, apparently, launched a self-made FAU from Avdeevka towards Donetsk, which was recorded in the operational log of usually insensitive observers from the OSCE. Presumably, it was the “unparalleled” 300 mm Alder, advertised by Turchinov. It is impossible to say more precisely, since the DPR air defense systems blew the “wunderwaffle” into the air without waiting for possible consequences.
All this is more than eloquent evidence of attacks on areas. And not just in terms of area, but not having military expediency. According to representatives of the armed forces of the republics, dill shoot little specifically at military targets and most of all try to harm the civilian population.
This pattern looks strange only at first glance. Judging by Ukrainian sources, in June and, especially, in July, “no losses” among the Ukrainian Armed Forces reached record results over the past year and a half. And, as is usual with the fascists and all other Banderas, they splash out the accumulated anger and hatred on civilians. Residential areas and the population of Donetsk, Gorlovka, Dokuchaevsk, Yasinovataya and villages in close proximity to the front line suffer the most from fascist shelling.
The intelligence agencies of the republics did not ignore the preparations directly at the front and in the near rear of the enemy. There is a rotation among units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Novosibirsk State University with the replacement of the Ukrainian military with penal prisoners from criminals, as well as mercenaries from PMCs. The positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are constantly being reinforced by a significant amount of towed and self-propelled artillery. Tank fists of 50-90 vehicles each were discovered on several sections of the front. Ukrainian Air Force helicopters began patrolling at a decent distance from the front line. NATO officers frequented operationally important strongholds. The rhetoric of Ukrainian media and officials has undergone changes.
Worth mentioning are Poroshenko’s promises to “test” his “gunpowder robots” with each visit to any military unit and the demands of Turchynov’s National Security and Defense Council to introduce martial law in the Donbass and adjacent areas.
At the moment, the situation at the front is somewhat reminiscent of the balance of power before the Battle of Kursk in early July 1943. Each side had its own advantages and disadvantages, but none had a decisive advantage over the enemy to launch an offensive. The side that launched the attack first had a greater chance of being defeated than winning.
That is why then Headquarters constantly restrained Vatutin, who was eager to fight. The Germans were the first to go on the offensive. Yes, they had no choice: having suffered a series of crushing defeats and having lost their best units during two years of war, they tried at any cost to make up for lost initiative.
Starting the offensive, the German command relied heavily on the Teutonic spirit, coupled with new tanks. On the southern front of the Kursk Bulge, they even managed to break through the powerful defense of our troops, which they had been preparing for four months, to its entire depth. But the Nazis were unable to develop their success. The Germans' advantage in new tanks was completely offset by the work of sappers and masterful anti-tank artillery fire.
So on the Donbass front, neither side has a decisive advantage over the other, and the start of the offensive carries with it a lot of threats not only of a military, but also of a political nature.
And this forces Poroshenko to increase the intensity of positional battles, provoking the Republicans to more active retaliatory measures. The offensive of the VSN would greatly help Poroshenko strengthen his precarious position, receive foreign assistance under the guise of “new aggression from Russia” and even to some extent influence the result of the presidential elections in the United States.
Not long ago, former KGB officer, former chief “izbushnik” and security adviser to almost all Ukrainian presidents, Yevgeny Marchuk, spoke very interestingly on this matter.
Describing the situation at the front, Marchuk greatly lamented that the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have a three-fold statutory superiority in forces against the republican troops, who “have more tanks than the Bundeswehr.” Otherwise, Marchuk warns, “the offensive could result in a real massacre.”
Making a forecast for the future is a thankless task. Ukraine and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have long been mired in inadequacy and complete idiocy in terms of organization and operational planning. It is always dangerous to deal with a fool - he is unpredictable. Ukraine may be prompted to take active action by political expediency and a certain temptation that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now better prepared and equipped than during the battles for Saur-Mogila and Debaltsevo.
In addition, Ukrainian “hawks”, calling for an immediate war to a victorious end, convince that Russia is now not interested in the LDPR, and all its attention is focused on Syria, where events at the front are developing rapidly. This would be a good time to hit him.
This probability will always be different from zero.
In any case, the end of summer and the beginning of autumn in Donbass seems hot in a military sense. Ukraine, led by criminals and adventurers, has once again proven that lies and inadequacy have become constant operating factors in its policy, and Donbass should not expect any peace from the Poroshenko regime.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.