Donbass and Ukraine. How could it be
Alexey Blyuminov, political commentator, Kyiv-Lugansk
The topic of Donbass receiving a special status in Ukraine died before it could take shape, at the moment when Poroshenko, clearly counting on an approving reaction from the nationalist electorate, countered Putin in an absentee exchange of positions, saying, as if cutting off - no federalization, no status of the Russian language, only a course towards strict unification of everything and everyone - from economics to the politics of historical memory.
At the same time, it is worth reflecting on what foundations the relations between Donbass and the rest of Ukraine could be based on. It is worth it for the reason that any social process and any situation should be considered not in statics, but in dynamics. Yes, today and under the current regime, Donbass cannot count on any dialogue with Kiev, except through a machine gun sight.
However, who said that it will always be like this? It is quite possible that by spring, having had enough fun to coexist in the apartments left without heating, Ukrainians will begin to look at the situation somewhat differently, and those willing to fight so that Kiev can impose its will on Donbass will greatly diminish. Then the time will come to come to the negotiating table for a meaningful dialogue that is now impossible.
Let's try to outline the approximate framework of such a dialogue? What could we be talking about? Of course, this is only the author’s version, but, nevertheless, it proceeds from the limits of the possible and existing historical precedents.
Actually, there are two options. The first one is minimalist. He proceeds from the fact that the rebels will not be able to go beyond the Donbass, and the two people's republics will have to build relations with the rest of Ukraine as a single whole. In this case, the demarcation line will pass along the administrative borders of the former Lugansk and Donetsk regions.
Obviously, in this situation, a confederation (although it may not be called that) would be a reasonable compromise. The DPR and LPR conclude an agreement with Ukraine in the status of freely acceded territories, maintaining their autonomous administrative and political structure, authorities, their elections and their legislation. The judicial system in this case could function on the basis of delimitation of Donbass and all-Ukrainian jurisdiction.
A separate issue is elections. It is obvious that Donbass should have its own elections, but at the same time all-Ukrainian elections should be held on its territory under a separate quota. In the general quantitative composition of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, in this case, a certain number of deputy mandates are reserved, which are played in the Donbass and represent it in Kyiv with the right of veto on issues affecting the interests of the republics.
The option of a treaty confederation provides for the preservation of a single monetary unit and the hryvnia zone, but at the same time allows Donbass enterprises built into the cooperation chains of the Customs Union to conduct non-cash payments with allies and consumers in Russian rubles. Thus, Donbass would turn out to be a kind of offshore at the junction of two payment systems and emission centers.
Also, an important component of the special status of Donbass could be the right of its residents to dual citizenship – in fact, the people’s republics and Ukraine. An important point is the status of the militia. It, in this scheme, is legalized in the form of the army and police of the LPR and DPR with the simultaneous and unconditional disarmament of the “wild” militias.
The cornerstone of the special status of Donbass should be the provision of the opportunity for this region to economically integrate into a single economic space with Russia and other countries of the Customs Union. This would guarantee the preservation of the existing industrial and scientific potential of the region, jobs and traditional cooperative ties and sales markets.
The second scenario for the development of events when the political situation in Ukraine changes is the dismantling of the current Ukrainian state with its subsequent re-establishment on a new basis (most likely, federal). And in this case, there will be no talk about the special status of Donbass in Ukraine for the reason that Donbass will participate in the process of re-establishing Ukraine on an equal basis with other regions. Within what boundaries and under what conditions this process will take place when a corresponding window of opportunity arises is an open and debatable question.
I fully admit that the existing range of possibilities will not allow us to immediately formalize the legally special status of Donbass, and for some time (possibly for a long time) it will have to exist in such a status not de jure, but de facto. The closest historical analogue is Northern Cyprus, which has partial recognition. If a negotiated federation/confederation takes place, then the future Donbass will resemble the Republika Srpska within Bosnia and Herzegovina in status.
Well, since we’re talking about analogies, we can’t help but touch on the current topic of the Scottish referendum on independence. This, of course, is not our case, but something else is curious. The story with the Scots once again “highlights” the double standards of Europe. After all, no one began to spread rot on the Scots for their desire for self-determination. On the contrary, official London gave them every opportunity to legitimately hold a plebiscite.
At the same time, Donetsk and Luhansk residents, who held their own referendums similar to the Scottish one on May 11, are being bombed and shot at by official Kiev from Grads and Uragans, and civilized Europe is silent and pretends not to notice the actual genocide in the country, with with which she recently signed an association agreement.
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