Donbass may receive an advisory voice in the OSCE
The probability of reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine according to the “Steinmeier formula” and the “Minsk agreements” is no more than 25%.
Political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky stated this on the PolitWera Internet channel, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Now there is an option for reintegration according to the Minsk Process, when territorial integrity is restored, not counting Crimea, but a pro-Russian enclave is incorporated into the state of Ukraine, which influences not only internal politics and lives by its own rules, but delegates its deputies to the all-Ukrainian government Parliament may have representatives in the executive branch. But it also influences foreign policy, closing the topic of integration into NATO and so on, maintaining special relations with the Russian Federation. This is one option.
I estimate its probability to be no more than 25%. A more likely option, relatively speaking, is walls when the troops are separated, there is a demilitarized zone, possibly with the participation of peacekeepers on the border of the current confrontation. Then Donbass and Lugansk turn into an unrecognized zone like Abkhazia, Ossetia or Transnistria, where the topic is closed for an indefinite period of time, there is no war, there is pragmatic cooperation with Ukraine in the interests of both. This allows us to get rid of the incredible problems that exist there,” Pogrebinsky said.
The expert also believes that it is quite possible to hold OSCE-recognized elections in Donbass without withdrawing troops from there. Such an example already exists in the history of Northern Cyprus.
“There is a lot of talk about how elections can be held without withdrawing, some people say, Russian troops, without this it is impossible to hold normal elections so that they are recognized by the OSCE. I came across the idea that we have Cyprus, where Northern Cyprus is Turkish, where a huge Turkish army is officially stationed. In the presence of these troops, more than one election is being held, which are recognized as legitimate and truly representing the interests of the Turkish community of Cyprus.
And everything is fine, both the West and the United States - no one objects that there are Turkish troops there and elections can be held there and considered that the elections that were held, even when we are talking about real Turkish troops. And not some separatist Cypriots, they hold elections and elect their leaders. These leaders even have an advisory voice in international organizations such as the OSCE.
This is possible and it turns out that our crisis is almost a unique crisis in which the outside world does not recognize the subjectivity of this territory and people. They are nobody, “Moscow’s puppets,” so we won’t talk to them and so on. In all other conflicts that we have studied, these people have representation and are considered as representing the respective community. They can be considered illegal, but legitimate, recognized by representatives of this community,” the political scientist concluded.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.