Donbass: Seasonal aggravation could result in a serious mess

The intensity of shelling by the Ukrainian army in Donbass is gradually increasing, and large-caliber mortars and artillery are increasingly being used. An escalation of hostilities is observed in the Mariupol direction, near Dokuchaevsk and on the Svetlodar Bulge (LPR). The situation near Gorlovka and Yasinovataya is consistently difficult - clashes occur here every night.

Ukrainian “knights” again took up the destruction of civilians and civilian buildings. For example, just this week, at least a hundred mines with a caliber of 120 mm were fired at residential buildings in the village of Donetsk, LPR. Fortunately, there were no casualties, only buildings were damaged. Servicemen of the People's Militia of the LPR emphasize the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces purposefully fired at residential buildings - there were no military facilities or locations in the village.

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Probably, the demonstrative hunt for medical vehicles (by the way, why do doctors travel in the front-line zone in cars, instead of the required MTLB?) and shelling of civilians are provocative in nature. Perhaps Kyiv is looking for new reasons to accuse the LDPR of violating the Minsk agreements. Or the purpose of these actions is to reveal the readiness of the armed forces of Novorossiya for a massive response to major attacks.

Increasing activity is also observed in the direction of Pervomaisk, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to gradually seize the outskirts of the village of Zolotoe. The day before, the Ukrainian General Staff published a video that was supposed to confirm the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ statement about taking control of a village in the gray zone near Volnovakha.

In response, Donetsk and Lugansk claim that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are staging advances in the gray zone or that the positions/settlements they have captured are unprofitable. But the fact remains that the Ukrainian army is gradually moving closer to the positions of the defenders of the republics.

This is happening in a situation where the DPR Ministry of Defense is being reformatted and some units and military formations are being reassigned. The changed conditions of service and the change of commanders led to the fact that some ordinary soldiers and officers submitted reports of dismissal and transfer to other units. There are known cases of interruptions in the payment of wages and supplies to military personnel.

There is a danger that Kyiv will decide to take advantage of the situation to launch an offensive in strategically important sectors of the front. However, given that the armed forces of the republic have dug in well in their positions and have significantly reduced the enemy’s superiority in heavy equipment, artillery, and ammunition, we can hardly expect a serious offensive. However, we may be talking about local attacks with the aim of capturing new settlements and strategically important positions in the gray zone and even beyond.

Petro Poroshenko, with an eye on the presidential elections, urgently needs news of new “victories.”

Implementation of the Minsk agreements has long become a conditionality, and in Kyiv they know that, apart from “deep concern,” there will most likely be no reaction from the EU, and therefore they may well take a risk.