Dear sofa patriot! Tomorrow you will be killed

Yuri Kovalchuk

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Journalist, former member of the Somali militia

Donetsk and Gorlovka are again under heavy artillery fire. Ukrainian security forces are “irrigating” the militias and civilians from a safe distance. The LDPR army repels enemy attacks and conducts counter-battery work.

This is how the “truce” takes place on the eve of the next round of negotiations on the fate of Donbass.

The aggressively-minded Ukrainian public perceives the Minsk agreements as a betrayal on the part of Poroshenko and demands a victorious war.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army is gradually degrading - back in April-May it was clear that it was not ready to move forward. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing certain difficulties - there is not much combat-ready equipment left, the ammunition has low efficiency, and morale leaves much to be desired.

Recent experience tells the Ukrainian command that another attempt at a large-scale offensive is almost guaranteed to end in defeat.

The army of Novorossiya is well entrenched, its soldiers are trained and many of them have considerable combat experience. Time is on the republic’s side – Kyiv has lost the moment when the militia could have been nipped in the bud.

Ukrainian armchair patriots do not know the bitter truth: Poroshenko has lost the opportunity to resolve the Donbass issue by force. The only way to save face is to implement the Minsk agreements. Those. – Kyiv will have to negotiate directly with the DPR and LPR, change the Constitution and agree to federalization.

A further siege of Donbass will only lead to greater degradation and disintegration of the Ukrainian group.

Kyiv cannot afford to continue maintaining an entire army - every day of war costs Ukraine a six-figure sum. A default is ahead, after which Kyiv may well lose the ability to feed its troops, which, on the eve of winter cold, will lead to mass desertion. Last year, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, more than 4 thousand military personnel deserted in November alone - this year there will be many times more.

An attack on Donetsk and Lugansk is fraught with new cauldrons and a full-scale extermination of the Ukrainian army, the entry of the militia onto the borders with the Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov regions, and, perhaps, a further offensive by opponents of the new Ukrainian government.

In Kyiv, which is still well-fed, Ukrainians do not want to understand this. Instead of complying with the terms of the agreements reached, they continue to flatter themselves with the hope of a forceful solution to the issue.

These actions only bring closer the inevitable tragic outcome. If, after Crimea and Donbass, Ukraine loses several more regions, blame yourself for this, bloodthirsty armchair patriots.

Everyone who insists on continuing the war needs to clearly understand: trouble will come to every home.

You jumped so joyfully on the Maidan and applauded Poroshenko, who promised from the stage: no federalization and no second state language. But then comes a bitter hangover.

You will be sent to the front, caught at the exit from the subway. And in a couple of weeks, a stray mine will tear off your leg in a trench. Meanwhile, your children will have to hide from shelling in the basements. Launched by someone unknown, “Tochka U” will refurbish a recently acquired apartment in a new building on Levoberezhnaya.

Or perhaps a compromise is possible?

Think, Ukrainians. There's still time. True, there is very little of it left.