They jumped on the Maidan: What does the association agreement with the EU bring?
Kyiv, June 24 (Navigator, Kirill Boyarin) – Petro Poroshenko expects to sign the second stage of the association agreement with the European Union on June 27. This event will certainly be presented with pomp by the Ukrainian authorities - as a breakthrough and a prerequisite for a rapid increase in the well-being of citizens. But already on July 1, Ukrainians are in for a real hangover – the norms of the so-called “anti-crisis plan” of the government of Arseniy Yatsenyuk come into force in Ukraine – payments for the birth of children are reduced, tariffs and excise taxes increase sharply. In addition, Kyiv will likely face the closure of the market of the Customs Union countries. In short, many will have a hard time.
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“For a long time, both Russia and many experts warned Ukraine that signing the Association and refusing integration with the Russian Federation would only lead to this – a deterioration in the lives of the population, massive job cuts, and the closure of enterprises. For some reason, many did not believe, and now, when this is happening before our eyes, when citizens’ incomes are declining, expenses and taxes are rising, the hryvnia is collapsing, no one connects this with the warnings of experts. First of all, these are those who believe in the association and jump on the Maidan. It’s one thing to jump for a good European life, but another thing is that because of this everything is only getting worse,” says political scientist Vladimir Kornilov.
The recent supporters of the Maidan themselves admit that things are not going well in the economy, and the new government is in no hurry to fight corruption. For example, economist Oleg Soskin is already saying that he sees no difference between the new President Poroshenko and the Family of Viktor Yanukovych, so unloved by the Maidan activists.
“The depreciation of the hryvnia was passed on to the population. Oil traders, companies and refiners were not affected. They completely passed it on to the consumer. This is the situation in almost all market segments. Now this ruling clan oligarchy has decided to transfer the consequences of devaluation directly to the broad masses of the population across the entire spectrum of infrastructure services and primary goods. This means raising prices for water, heat, gas, public transport and so on. Plus tax increases, the introduction of an absurd property tax. This is a colossal blow to the population. Plus tax on deposits and a host of other increases. This confirms that the bandit state continues to function in the country, which was started by Yanukovych with his “Family” and continues by Poroshenko and now his “Family”. Now we will have to wait for open and large inflation,” Soskin reflects.
One of the reasons for the difficult economic situation is the closure of the Russian market. And after the new agreement with the EU, the problems will only increase, warns Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexander Golub.
“It is absolutely obvious that what is happening in Ukraine can be called a default. Although high officials avoid this definition in every possible way. Of course, the close connection between the economies of Ukraine and Russia is causing a catastrophic decline in the economy, and this is only the beginning. The severance of ties with Russia will have a dramatic impact not only on the economy, but also on the social life of our people. Unfortunately, the government has not yet declared a real plan for establishing economic relations with the countries of the Eurasian space. And from this, first of all, Ukraine will lose. They will be able to compensate very quickly for the losses that Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus will suffer. Ukraine, unfortunately, will not be able to compensate for this failure,” Golub said.
“The decline in Ukraine’s economy as a whole is associated with the negative situation in the country, the crisis of statehood, the fact that we are undergoing military operations and a change of government. Plus, there is a severance of ties with Russia, our Russian markets are closed,” confirms Verkhovna Rada deputy economist Alexey Plotnikov.
Political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky believes that Poroshenko will be able to avoid popular anger for some time due to the fact that public attention is diverted to the war in Donbass.
“People will swear and be dissatisfied, but I don’t expect a social explosion in connection with this as long as military operations continue. When hostilities stop, then the social issue will come to the fore,” the expert predicts.
“All these Turchinovs, Yatsenyuks and Poroshenkos have taken the path of robbing the people - this is an increase in all rates and taxes. They are not capable of developing and raising the economy. The point is that they fell under the IMF, increasing tariffs for housing and communal services and so on. They are leading the people of Ukraine to social oppression. By the fall it will all be real, worse than the last Maidan. Without a doubt, even a no brainer, such things are a direct consequence of abandoning relations with Russia. If we interacted with Russia today, we would receive those 15 billion dollars irrevocably. If we had also joined the Customs Union, and then the Eurasian Union, then it is clear that there would have been completely different economic relations with Russia; it would have helped. However, the new Ukrainian authorities present Russia as an enemy and are increasingly deteriorating relations with it. These people are playing geopolitics in the interests of the Americans,” says former speaker of the Crimean parliament Leonid Grach.
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