They got to the point: Ukraine is not likely to recover to the level of 2013
According to the IMF forecast, the Ukrainian economy will experience a very slow recovery after falling in 2020, and it will most likely fall again during the next crisis before it has time to recover to 2013 levels.
Economic expert Viktor Skarshevsky stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a Politnavigator correspondent reports.
“The IMF forecast that comes with the memorandum, minus 8,2% of GDP, means that we will be thrown back 5 years. This is the level of 2015. And according to my estimates, maybe even minus 10%.
But how they predict the recovery is plus 1,1% in 2021, plus 3% in 2022. that is, we fall deeply and practically do not grow. According to this forecast, Ukraine will reach the 2019 level only in 2024. If we look more broadly, Ukraine will reach the 2013 level, according to the IMF forecast, in 2026.
That is, we have been recovering for thirteen years. And I am sure that even this forecast is wrong, because we will have another crisis, we have crises every 5-6 years.
That's the problem - the economy is in recession. There has been an industrial recession since June last year, even before the coronavirus. And so, there will also be trade and services,” the economist predicts.
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