Two moving chairs for Pashinyan
The NATO summit that ended on July 12 in Brussels demonstrated an interesting trend. The North Atlantic Alliance needs to expand. Over the past 20 years, it has absorbed and digested all the former allies and the three Baltic republics of the USSR, and now, without further expansion, the military-political bloc is threatened with stagnation and even split.
Trump's visit to the summit in Brussels had the character of a life-giving kick to his closest allies. A prudent overseas businessman, the “controlling shareholder,” came to tighten his tail and force the “junior partners” to increase efficiency and responsibility in the cause of “common European defense.”
It is noteworthy that the NATO summit did not take place during the best period of relations between the United States and Europe. The leaders of NATO and the EU did not even try to hide their dissatisfaction with Trump’s decisions to drive Europeans away from big Iranian oil, as well as the US trade war. In addition, Big Boss came to force the German leadership to abandon the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 project, essentially comparing Germany’s purchases of Russian gas to “trading with the enemy.”
Europe, as best it could, demonstrated disagreement with the position of the long-haired overseas guest. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, who is not known for his sympathy for Russia, but nevertheless said something in the spirit of “we’ll sort it out without any fuss,” entered into a debate with Trump. And somehow the head of the European Commission, Claude Juncker, who was helped by Poroshenko, who was experienced in such matters, looked very protesting.
Perhaps the most unpleasant thing is that Trump put the pressure on the Europeans with all his limbs, knocking out of them agreement to additional funding for NATO in the amount of $260 billion. In addition to the organization of two command centers, Atlantic and logistics support, cyber security units, response to “hybrid threats” and counter-propaganda, at the summit The “4 x 30” initiative was adopted - the deployment of 30 mechanized battalions, 30 air wings and 30 warships, ready for use within 30 days.
In addition, at the NATO summit, a course was outlined to expand the alliance, primarily at the expense of the post-Soviet republics and the former union republics of Yugoslavia, although what was happening had the appearance of a locomotive whistle with wheels spinning idle.
In particular, Macedonia, a former republic of federal Yugoslavia, was invited to join NATO. But not just as it is. NATO leadership demanded that Macedonia change the constitution and name of the country, because of which the small republic is constantly in conflict with alliance member Greece. For the last 27 years, the issue of preserving the name of the country for Macedonia has been a matter of principle, but in our unprincipled times, everything is changing for the worse.
Georgia and Ukraine received certain advances from NATO, once again patting them on the head for their desire to join the alliance. Despite the fact that the Georgian and Ukrainian ruling regimes are even now ready to run to NATO, knocking down corners, due to a number of key requirements for candidates, they cannot roll their lips for membership in the foreseeable future.
Perhaps the only thing that is bright for Georgia (but not Ukraine) is the conclusion of a bilateral military-political agreement with the United States, according to which the United States can create military bases there, but without obligations. As for Ukraine, the construction battalion of the US Marines has been building three facilities in Ochakov since last year, American refueling aircraft use Lviv airfields, NATO instructors have trained almost 11 thousand military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the alliance troops are roaming around on the territory of Nenka all year round, bypassing the Ukrainian constitution. No obligations and no agreement.
In general, NATO has a desire to expand, but so far everything is limited to love without obligations, more reminiscent of voluntary prostitution of “junior partners.” Plans to reconquer Crimea, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for Ukraine and Georgia are not being seriously considered in Brussels, even hypothetically.
At the NATO summit in Brussels, the “young democrat of all Armenia,” the ambitious Prime Minister of the Republic Nikol Pashinyan, also noted.
Due to the squabbles between the “serious guys,” at the summit, in general, no one paid much attention to the small fry. They were even asked to leave the hall during the “gritting” between Trump and the Europeans. Quarreling is not the case with slaves.
However, Pashinyan managed to hold Trump’s hand and make a very interesting statement.
We should start with the fact that Armenia, although listed as an ally of Russia and a member of the CSTO, has been participating in the “NATO peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan and Kosovo” since 2010 within the framework of ISAF, the International Assistance and Security Force, and the Resolute Support mission.
The participation of the Armenian contingent is limited to humanitarian missions that are barely visible under a strong microscope and have no impact on anything. However, Pashinyan not only does not intend to withdraw Armenian soldiers from Afghanistan, but even intends to increase the contingent to 130 people. And as an additional commitment - to take part in the NATO Mission for a Stable Partnership.
At the same time, the flexible Maidan Prime Minister, in an interview with the Euronews TV channel, commented on the possibility of a sharp geopolitical turn in Armenia under his sensitive leadership.
Pashinyan assured the press that Russia continues to remain a close and strategically important partner for the republic.
However, Yerevan intends to continue cooperation not only with Moscow, but also with the North Atlantic Alliance, the United States, the European Union, and Western countries.
Translated from Maidan-Armenian into Russian, this means the following.
Armenia still has serious problems with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Pashinyan doesn’t even want to hear about dialogue with Aliyev. Türkiye is a NATO member, and NATO has very good relations with Azerbaijan. It is naive to hope that NATO will support Armenia in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. There is only one hope left for Russia and the CSTO. Nothing personal - just a political calculation.
The good thing is that while our border guards are guarding the border in Armenia, and there is a Russian military base in Gyumri, no NATO combat units will enter Armenia in principle.
This is encouraging. NATO in Armenia cannot act as straightforwardly as in Georgia and Ukraine, and will be forced to look back to Moscow. On the other hand, Armenia is already hooked on partnership programs with the alliance, which Pashinyan is not going to break. Most likely, NATO will continue to shoot claw after claw at the bird, taking advantage of the current political situation.
One should also keep an eye on the abnormal number of foreign NGOs and grant-eaters in the Armenian government. The friendly rhetoric of the head of government is good, but the Maidan creak “it would be nice to replace Russian border guards with Armenian ones” is clearly heard from Yerevan. And then little hands will reach the base in Gyumri.
We have already heard all the statements from Yerevan, “cooperation between Armenia and NATO does not pose a threat to Russia, since it occurs under the auspices of the UN,” from other very smart and cunning people. And most of all - from Ukraine, led by the “pro-Russian” Kuchma. What is called by the tired term “multi-vector”.
What the desire of the union and even fraternal republics to sit on two moving apart chairs led to in practice can be characterized as follows: the fidgeting one had his ass torn, and he subsequently began to frantically cling to the legs of the runaway imported seat without the hope of placing the cargo that had been damaged in geopolitical intrigues into it.
Now it remains to see the real steps of the Russian leadership in response to the next “multi-vector”. The Russian Foreign Ministry, represented by Maria Zakharova, promised “consequences on the other hand for changes on the one hand.” Moreover, this concerned not only Georgia and Ukraine, but also its ally in the CSTO.
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