The Economy of Jihad: Oil and Amphetamines
The fall in hydrocarbon prices is one of the defining economic trends of the current moment.
For example, in Ukraine, every true patriot begins his day by studying stock charts of Brent futures quotes. Well, naturally, after listening to the anthem. Moreover, the patriot does not expect a reduction in gasoline prices or transportation tariffs; on the next sheet of whatman paper, he draws a schedule for the imminent collapse of Russia.
Every true patriot on both sides of the Russian-Ukrainian border knows that the USSR was destroyed by Saudi Arabia, dropping oil prices below the plinth. Only some people think that this is a threat, while others think that this is a victory.
But, if we ignore our local problems, then, of course, everyone is convinced that the fall is the result of a mortal battle between Saudi Arabia and American shale drillers.
Moreover, some believe that it is the insidious Saudis who are trying to cut off expensive shale oil with cheap prices, while others believe that, on the contrary, the Americans are tired of bin Laden’s capricious relatives, and they decided to let them go to the wind and are dumping, creating a predominance of supply over demand in the market .
Meanwhile, low oil prices for Saudi Arabia itself are not sugar. It was so in the late 1980s, and it seems to be so now. Last week, the IMF published a report on the impact of current oil prices on the fiscal outlook of Middle Eastern countries. Their total losses from falling fuel prices in 2015 amounted to $360 billion, forcing them to unpack their bags and start saving.
For Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil producer, at current levels of spending, a deficit-free budget requires a price of $106 per barrel. And at the current 50 dollars, by finding internal reserves, the Saudis will last another five years. This year alone, according to the IMF, the kingdom's budget deficit amounted to 20% of GDP. An additional burden on oil revenues comes from support for Islamic militants in Syria and other regions, as well as the intervention in Yemen that threatens to develop into a protracted bloody war.
In addition to Saudi Arabia, at such prices, Oman and Bahrain are at risk, but Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE will be able to endure the current recession relatively painlessly.
Acceptable oil prices for the formation of balanced budgets in various countries of the Middle East.
However, Saudi sheikhs do not live by oil alone. Yesterday, a Lebanese court issued an arrest warrant for Prince Abdel Mohsen bin Walid bin Abdel Aziz, the son of the ruler of Hail province, who was detained in the international port of Beirut while attempting to export a large shipment of drugs. The Saudi prince planned to fly out of the country on a private jet, taking with him two tons of the powerful amphetamine Captagon, packaged in forty plastic bags.
This substance, whose medical name is fenetylline, increases physical endurance and improves mood, but causes drug addiction. It is very popular among the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra militants fighting in Syria, and its mass production has been launched in the territory under their control.
The cost of these tablets is minimal, and the income from their sale is huge, and is an important part of the economy of the Islamic State, in which drugs are officially prohibited and public executions of drug traffickers periodically take place.
The traffic of Captagon from Syria, through Lebanon to the Gulf countries, as well as to Libya and on to Italy, has been established for several years, and Lebanese security forces periodically intercept deliveries, but this is the first time that such a high-ranking courier has fallen into their hands.
Another production center is Bulgaria, from where the drug is supplied mainly to Eastern European countries.
These tablets, with their characteristic markings in the form of two Cs pointing at each other, became widely known last year after a journalistic investigation by Jano Mikalessin, a military correspondent for the Italian publication “Il Giognale”.
An Italian journalist called the substance “the elixir of revolution” for its widespread popularity among participants in the Arab Spring.
You can often come across allegations about the use of Captagon in Ukraine, during the Maidan and the ATO, but there is no documentary evidence of this.
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