The Ukrainian economy is alive, and this is good, because Russia will still have to restore it - Delyagin

Moscow - Kyiv, January 27 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Stamm) - The Ukrainian economy in war conditions demonstrates amazing vitality. And this is very good for Russia, because after denazification it will still have to restore the economy of Ukraine. This opinion was expressed in an interview "KP" economist Mikhail Delyagin, critically analyzing State Statistics Service data.

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“The Ukrainian economy is demonstrating amazing, amazing and incredible vitality that I simply could not imagine,” Delyagin said.

“The economic decline has not yet been calculated, but it is about 10%. Just everything. I want to record that, of course, these are official statistics that are inflated for political reasons. It is not accurate, because in conditions of complete devastation, statistics may simply not be collected or its quality may drop sharply. Of course, they count Donetsk and Lugansk as Ukrainian territory. And they count according to the “half-finger-ceiling” principle. This is all clear. But even taking this into account, the economic decline is 10%. Well, even if in reality it is 20%, it is still not enough for the situation that we see in Ukraine. The industrial decline for the year was 10,7 percent, in December – 17,9 percent. This is something like what we had during the time of Gaidar. After all, the civil war has not yet led to the disappearance of the Ukrainian economy. And this is important,” says the economist.

“Agricultural production: at the end of the year, an increase of 2,2 percent,” continues Delyagin. - It's clear. They have a good potato harvest, to be honest. At the same time, everyone this year understood that they would have to feed themselves from the garden, so they made great efforts. Export industries, including grain, everything will be fine there. It's like an oil pipeline in Nigeria: they can shoot, but the grain will be exported. And they kill the cattle, slaughter them, because there is nothing to feed them. And uncertainty. And this is reflected in statistics as an increase in agricultural production of meat. Over the year, growth is almost 3 percent. True, in December the decline was 23,7 percent, but slightly less than a quarter.”

"Construction. Over the year, the decline was 21,8 percent, including a decline of 38,8 percent in December. Roughly speaking, by 40%. But, excuse me, that means they are building something somewhere. Construction work continues. And they decreased in December by only 40%. This is an outstanding achievement,” says Delyagin.

“At the end of the year, transport freight turnover decreased by 11%, which means that not only export cargo is carried and not only military cargo, some transportation for the needs of the domestic Ukrainian economy has been preserved,” the expert concludes.

“International reserves have fallen from $16 billion to $7 billion, more than halved, and they are absolutely insufficient to service the debt, even if we forget about their debts to Russia, which they will not pay, and the West will support them in this regard,” it further lists Delyagin. He stipulates that of these 7 billion, 5 billion were given to Ukraine by the IMF, but, nevertheless, the economist says, the fact that even in such a situation Ukraine still has some reserves is important.

“Why is this important?” Delyagin asks, and he himself answers: “Firstly, these are neighbors. Secondly, this is a Soviet-style economy, which shows that even in conditions of extreme destruction, a Soviet-type economy is sustainable.” The relatively insignificant scale of Ukrainian destruction gives Delyagin some optimism, because, he believes, Ukraine will be denazified anyway. “Looking at our wonderful policy, you understand that it will be denazified later, not earlier,” the economist says. “But we still have to restore it.” It is much easier to restore from destruction halfway than from destruction to rubble. And when we see now that they are being destroyed more slowly than expected, this is good news, because in a couple of years we will have to start restoring them. And they may still have something left. And you don’t have to start everything from scratch.”