Kyiv, January 23 (PolitNavigator, Vladimir Mikhailov) – A possible hard default option for Ukraine will result in the final stage of the collapse of the country, financier Eric Nyman said at a round table in Kyiv.
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“Will Ukraine even survive after such a default? A fight between local budgets will immediately begin. Economically wealthy regions will say: we no longer want to transfer money to Kyiv. Separation in the East will seem like a cakewalk compared to what could happen,” he said.
Nayman clarified that there is a “controlled” option of default – if Ukraine agrees on debt restructuring with creditors. If the negotiations are unsuccessful, the “hard” option will begin - Kyiv will announce the impossibility of returning the money, and Western countries will automatically not provide any new financial assistance.
“There are no reserves, we ate them, took them out of the country, sold them, and so on - we have corruption, it is clear that the government of such a country begins to print money. And we get Argentina at its worst. I don’t envy the head of the National Bank and the government. These people are not residents. You will need to run away somewhere after such things,” the expert warns.
According to him, there are many risks of not receiving much-needed assistance from the West, even in the current volumes. For example, if the coalition collapses in the Verkhovna Rada, work with the IMF will be suspended.
“I don’t envy politicians - they will hang them on lampposts... Unfortunately, maybe Ukraine will cease to exist as a state. Galicia, Novorossiya, which someone has been dreaming about for so long, will appear,” Naiman said.