The expert named scenarios for Donbass
Two scenarios are considered the most likely for Donbass: freezing the conflict and slow reintegration into Ukraine, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
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Director of the Center for Political Conjuncture Aleksey Chesnakov stated this today at a press conference in Moscow.
“Freezing the conflict is considered bad, but not the worst scenario for all participants. The parties are not taking steps towards implementing another scenario, so the likelihood that they will come to a freeze remains very high,” Chesnakov said.
He also named two likely negative scenarios: a revision of Minsk-2 and a default of the Minsk agreements, that is, failure to fulfill obligations.
“Of course, first of all, we mean Ukraine, which has not demonstrated any sustainable steps towards implementing the Minsk agreements. In words, she remains their supporter, but Ukrainian politicians make statements that can be regarded as attempts to withdraw from Minsk. Neither side wants to violate the status quo first. The one who violates the Minsk agreements will be the party that derailed the peace process,” Chesnakov said.
He called the resumption of regular hostilities in Donbass “an exceptional scenario that cannot be completely ruled out.”
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