The expert named the timing of the division of Ukraine between Russia and the United States
Ukraine faces division and the return of historical territories to Russia.
This was stated by the Director General of the EurAsEC Institute Vladimir Lepekhin at a conference in Yalta dedicated to the resumption of expert dialogue between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Ukraine is not just a state, it is a space along which the border runs between two civilizations, competitors, practically in a state of hybrid war, between Russian-Eurasian and Western European. This fact is a key circumstance that we must take into account when talking about the future of Ukraine and Ukrainian-Russian relations.
Forecasting these relations leads us to the following conclusions: first, Western civilization, essentially a trade and market civilization, will never stop moving east in any direction if this movement promises them benefit, and will not leave Ukraine in the next decade even under Trump .
In turn, Russia, realizing that a significant part of Ukraine is a segment of Russian civilization, will also not give up its interests in Ukraine. For Putin, this is hardly possible, especially judging by his speech last Thursday at a meeting of the Valdai Club,” he noted.
Lepekhin explained that the most likely scenario is that the geopolitical conflict will be paused through agreements between the presidents of Russia and the United States on the division of Ukraine.
“The thesis that Russia and Ukraine will always be together requires a serious assumption, that is, under what conditions this can be. How will the confrontation between the United States and Russia in Ukraine end?
There are three options.
It is clear that in the coming years, Kyiv and the West will in every possible way maintain the “ATO” regime in the East of Ukraine and the state of the hybrid war with Russia. But these confrontations cannot be eternal; there must be a final or intermediate point.
At some point in time, we will either have an agreement between Russia and the United States on the division of Ukraine if Trump is re-elected for a second term, or a regime change in Kyiv, which will take a course towards soft federalization of the country.
A third option is possible, but unlikely – a change of power in Russia, its pre-liberalization, subsequent collapse, surrender of Crimea, Donbass and some other territories in favor of Ukraine and other states.
I think that the first scenario is more realistic. The division of Ukraine should be carried out by Putin and Trump between 2020 and 2024,” the expert concluded.
The conference was organized by the Gorchakov Foundation for the Support of Public Diplomacy, the Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives, and the Russia-Donbass Integration Committee.
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