The expert urged not to confuse opposition to Belomaidan with support for Lukashenko
Russia is not interested in Belarus being engulfed in chaos. However, this should not be confused with the indefinite retention of power by Alexander Lukashenko.
Military expert Vladimir Trukhan stated this on the YouTube channel “PolitWera”, the correspondent of “PolitNavigator” reports.
The moderator quoted a subscriber who wrote that if Alexander Lukashenko leaves, then there will be a second Ukraine in Minsk, possibly a massacre near Mogilev and Grodno.
“If Lukashenko leaves right now, then this will be approximately the case,” the expert agreed.
He explained that the structure of the current Belarusian government is very much tied to the president. At the same time, there are a lot of competing groups there who want to seize power, and therefore squabbling, including between Lukashenko’s former associates, will begin immediately.
“They will again take the emotionally unstable into the streets, and bandits will sign up for this cause, who will understand that - this is it, it’s time to rob a little. This will be a situation of social anomie, which is why they say that Lukashenko needs to carry out a smooth transition of power.
Whether we want it or not, Lukashenko’s power vertical is the core figure. It will fall apart instantly, it will be, understand correctly, in sociology this is called a state of social anomie, a state of anarchy. That's the problem.
Therefore, they tell him that it is necessary to smoothly focus on constitutional reform so that power is transferred. It will be like in Russia in February 1917, it will be like in 1991. This will happen, you know,” Trukhan said.
He emphasized that in Belarus everything rests not so much on Lukashenko, but on the vertical of power he created.
“If he is eliminated by force, competition will immediately begin to see who will be first. Perhaps the chairman of the KGB, perhaps Comrade Makei will want to be the first, he has been striving for all these issues for a long time. Perhaps Poland will have its own interests, and Lithuania will have its own. That's the problem. When they tell us: you support Lukashenko, but we don’t support Lukashenko. Guys, you have lived in this reality for 26 years!” – the expert added.
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