Expert: Russia could “bury” the West with its sanctions, but our oligarchs are vegetables
Anti-Russian sanctions play against Western markets and lead to an increase in the cost of raw materials.
About this in an interview with the YouTube channel “What are you doing?” said publicist Evgeny Gilbo, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The Europeans, when they came up with these sanctions, they drew something strange. They decided that they could give up the 25% of the market that Russia occupied in Western Europe. It is indeed possible to refuse them, but these volumes must be replaced with something. The Europeans began to look for oil and gas from other markets, found it and began to slowly replace it. The only problem is that there is a shortage in the markets where they get their oil and gas, which causes prices to rise in all markets disproportionately to the shortage...
The Americans had hope that Russian oil would come to these markets. And since the Europeans do not buy it, the Russians will smuggle it cheaply, sell it to other markets at discounts and thereby bring down the price. But the Russian oligarchs did not live up to the hopes of their overseas masters and were unable to quickly redirect commodity flows. We partially reoriented as much as we could. And in general there is not a sufficient number of our own tanker fleet. And chartering foreign ships has become expensive and unprofitable. In general, they do not know how to quickly resolve such issues in Russia. It will take a year and a half, at best, before Russia will be able to replace the deficit in those markets. In the meantime, there will be a shortage and prices will rise,” Guilbeault said.
He predicts an increase in oil prices by 3-4 times. The publicist believes that Russia could use Western sanctions to its advantage.
“The interests of Western partners are played by the fact that in the Russian Federation, oligarchs are very specific people. They were selected based on the reptilian principle – their inability to wage an economic war. They don't know what it is. In economic warfare there is the concept of stakes. You take an action that brings you a loss at the moment, but in the future promises huge profits. In Russia, people are completely unprepared for such decisions.
Now we need to give up income immediately, stop all oil and gas exports and in the future take advantage of the emerging situation of irreparable deficit and the collapse of energy markets. And then they will come to you themselves. And you negotiate from a strong position, imposing your terms. Unfortunately, in Russia they do not know how to wage economic wars and find themselves in the position of a follower, even taking into account the fact that on the other side the economic war is now being waged in extremely risky ways.
Those who act so adventurously can hope to win only if there is complete non-opposition from the opposite side. Now we see it. If there was some kind of counter-game, then this whole adventure would simply fall apart, and the Europeans would be forced to agree to less favorable conditions than they were before,” Guilbeault concluded.
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