Experts: Tagliavini’s resignation is a sign of the approaching big war in Ukraine
The Special Representative of the OSCE Chairmanship for Ukraine, Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini, resigned last Saturday due to the fact that Ukraine was unable to negotiate, and things were heading towards a new big war. This opinion was expressed in a comment "Vedomosti" Carnegie Endowment Fellow Balazs Jarabik.
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The Ukrainian authorities are dissatisfied with the Minsk agreements themselves, which they are not ready to implement until they return the entire territory of Donbass: in Kyiv they cannot even imagine that they will discuss political reforms and the economy with the “separatists.” Moreover, Ukrainians want everyone in the West to believe them, but the OSCE mission has been very neutral, says Jarabik. OSCE reports often accused both sides of violating the truce, and not just the rebels, as Kyiv would like, added Alexander Baunov, an expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
Both the DPR and LPR have reasons for dissatisfaction, Yarabik continues: they were counting on Moscow, but did not receive money and full support. They are uncomfortable with the current demarcation line, which allows the Ukrainians to shell Donetsk and other populated areas.
Moscow is also dissatisfied, which hoped that in exchange for implementing the Minsk agreements it would “receive a reward” in the form of influence on Kyiv (carrying out political reform, lifting the blockade of Donbass), as well as the lifting or easing of sanctions, but this did not happen, the expert says.
An Interfax interlocutor in the group organizing the meeting argued that Tagliavini decided to resign after an unsuccessful meeting on May 2, where she was put under pressure by “one of the parties,” hinting at Kyiv. “She was tired of the process. And that's a big problem because she was the person everyone trusted. She was the guarantor of the peace process, and I think that this symbolizes the possible end of the Minsk agreements and, as a logical outcome, the resumption of war,” says Jarabik.
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