Experts continue to argue about the results of the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko

Observers expected much more high-profile news from yesterday's negotiations between the presidents of Russia and Belarus. Liberal political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov writes about this on his blog.

“Russia and Belarus are once again recording that “the process is underway.” However, more was expected from the last meeting between Putin and Lukashenko, that at least for the pre-election picture the project would somehow come to life, for example, as part of joint military exercises, they would allow the deployment of some Russian battalion in the republic. This would be read as a transition from words to action. But instead, everything went according to the standard scheme,” writes Grashchenkov.

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Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Andrey Suzdaltsev draws attention to the fact that, even if Alexander Lukashenko agrees to the introduction of a single currency in the future, Minsk has a scheme tested back in Soviet times for abandoning the agreements.

“In 2001-2003, Russia tried to create a single currency with the Republic of Belarus. Then Alexander Lukashenko demanded a second emission center in Minsk, from 2 billion dollars a year as compensation for the abandonment of the Belarusian ruble and “equal” access to Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves (at that time already about 500 billion dollars). Let us remind you that the GDP of the Republic of Belarus is no more than 3% of the GDP of Russia. So the Belarusian leadership’s appetite for Russian resources is truly thermonuclear. But at the same time, it is worth recalling that even within the framework of the USSR and being in the zone of the Soviet ruble, Minsk began to print separatist “bunnies” and “squirrels” for internal use. Let us repeat that this was the first experience of currency separatism in the USSR. What prevents Alexander Lukashenko from repeating this option and, pretending that he is being offended and not allowed to print the “union ruble” uncontrollably, introducing a parallel currency?” – writes Suzdaltsev, warning that Belarus risks “turning into a ‘black hole’ for the Russian budget.”

Political scientist Marat Bashirov is more optimistic. He points out that for the citizens of Russia and Belarus, economic integration is much more important than political integration, and it will ultimately lead to a real rapprochement of states.

“The merging of markets and regulatory policies binds countries to each other not only through mutual obligations, but, first of all, through the desire of the citizens themselves to remain in such a union. As a result, the political choice follows the economic and everyday ones. We got burned with Ukraine, thinking that cultural, religious and historical kinship would preserve friendly relations, and the result is known. With the Republic of Belarus, Russia is implementing a clearly new, rethought strategy,” Bashirov wrote.

He predicts that the presidents' economic agreements will lead to political changes.

“Changes in the structure of power in Russia after the elections to the State Duma are synchronized with changes after the in-depth integration of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. And the changes will be enormous, which is worth nothing more than a common parliament, currency and tax regimes,” Bashirov wrote.

The coordinator of the Russian-Belarusian expert club, Vyacheslav Sutyrin, believes that political integration within the Union State is inevitable after the decisions announced by the presidents.

“It is expected that the implementation of union programs will lead to larger things: a single currency, political integration, the creation of a parliament that Putin mentioned. The programs are just the beginning of the process of reintegration of the two countries.

Moscow’s principled position, which the Belarusian side does not immediately but gradually accept, is clearly stated by Putin: “Without resolving framework issues, we cannot move on to local issues” (market access, energy prices). It is necessary to resolve issues not on individual positions, but as a whole,” Sutyrin wrote.