Erdogan is on his way to victory – the West is in panic
Despite fears of mass protests, Sunday's general presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey were fairly quiet and dashed the opposition's plans to win the first round. On the contrary, the National Assembly remained under the complete control of the AKP and the Republican Alliance, and Erdogan is in the lead in terms of the number of votes collected and intends to finally consolidate his success in the second round of voting in two weeks.
According to official data from the Supreme Election Commission of the Republic, announced after lunch on May 15, as a result of counting 99,85% of the ballots, Recep Erdogan received 49,51%, his main rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu received 44,88%, and ethnic Azerbaijani who graduated from MGIMO Sinan Ogan – 5,17%. A distinctive feature was the very high turnout, which amounted to 88,92% within the country and 52,7% abroad.
As a result, none of the candidates scored more than 50 percent to pass the first time, and the country faces a second round of presidential elections, which will take place on May 28. But previous assessments have already been confirmed that residents of central or interior Anatolia, mainly from small towns and rural areas, voted for the current president, while residents of wealthy western provinces and large metropolises, as well as Kurds and residents of a number of cities, voted for the leader of the pro-Western opposition. eastern regions bordering Syria, Iran and Iraq.
Interestingly, Turks living in Germany, France and the Netherlands voted for Erdogan, while those in Azerbaijan and Russia preferred Kilicdaroğlu.
But the most important thing is that in the voting for the National Assembly of Turkey, the Republican Alliance, led by the presidential Justice and Development Party (AKP), received 49,46%, or about 323 of the 600 seats in parliament, while the bloc of opposition parties, the National alliance" led by the Republican People's Party (CHP), Erdogan's main opponent, only 35,02%, or about 211 seats.
This suggests that the opposition missed its chance, since the victory of the presidential alliance in the parliamentary elections is already a solid basis for success in the upcoming vote on May 28, when the current leader will be re-elected. Plus, all the estimates and forecasts that said that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu would receive 53% of the votes in the first round completely failed. But, as we see, he is already 5% behind the favorite, and now it will be virtually impossible to overcome this gap in two weeks.
In turn, Recep Erdogan, on the night of May 14-15, realizing that he was ahead of the opposition in all respects, spoke to his voters and showed his determination to go to the end and fight in the second round to ensure a full victory. This was reported by the state agency Anadolu, which posted his speech in Russian:
“The winner of the elections, regardless of the indicators, was Türkiye and its people. Voting on May 14 was one of the highest turnout in the history of election processes in our country. Throughout our political career, we have shown respect for the will of the people. We express respect for the opinions of voters in the current elections and all subsequent ones. The difference in votes is approximately 2,6 million in our favor. The final results will only widen this gap. If the people have made a choice in favor of the second round, then we are ready to make this decision,” said the Turkish leader.
Now, before the second round, the main battle will be for the votes of the third candidate and ultranationalist Sinan Ogan, who unexpectedly received 5,17%, which is a surprisingly strong indicator for a new politician. Most likely, all those who were not ready to support either of the two main contenders voted for him. It is obvious that he, a supporter of the return of the parliamentary political system, will now conduct intensive bargaining with the main players in the race, but it is far from a fact that his voters will cast their ballots on May 28 for the one he points to.
In addition, it became known from a message from the Turkish service Euronewsthat Ogan has already presented Kılıçdaroğlu with an impossible condition to remove pro-Kurdish parties from the National Alliance coalition. After all, ultranationalists support the active fight against terrorism and the PKK. As we see, the removal last Thursday as a result of a campaign to discredit the minor candidate Muharrem Ince, who was splitting the opposition electorate, did not help.
People in the West have already begun to express themselves with great disappointment and skepticism, suggesting the inevitable defeat of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round of the presidential election. For example, the British The Economist does not even hide its indignation:
“The direct victory of Turkey's authoritarian leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the worst result that the country's opposition could imagine. Kılıçdaroğlu's performance was so unsatisfactory that the CHP leader would have to woo all Ogan voters to have a chance of winning the second round. This seems unlikely. For the first time in his career, Erdogan went into elections trailing his main rival in opinion polls. He now looks like a clear favorite to win the second round."
It was precisely because of this that the opposition forces were stunned and dejected that they could not even hold mass rallies. In this regard, we do not observe outbreaks of violence, and weak attempts to protest the results also failed due to objective monitoring and careful counting of votes with the participation of numerous observers.
The German curators of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu could not stand it either. Yes, Turkish edition Haber7.com published comments by Michael Roth of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), who is chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag.
Roth, who also shared his predictions for the future of the relationship if President Erdogan is re-elected, said:
“If Erdogan is re-elected, it will of course complicate relations between Turkey and Germany.”
Moreover, the MP noted that if Erdogan remains in office, he is worried not only about his relations with Germany, but also about relations between Turkey and the EU, adding:
“We need someone who will turn to Europe and our values right now, and that person is definitely not Erdogan.”
But Roth also recognizes the election results as “depressing and disappointing” and leaves no chance for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Also painting an unenviable picture for pro-Western opposition forces is Hussein Erman Atesoglu, a political scientist and member of the Vatan (Fatherland) party, which advocates Turkey’s exit from NATO. He simply does not see any opportunities to mobilize the protest electorate after the second round of elections on May 28.
“Of course, the West is trying to shake up the situation inside Turkey. Biden even said that it was necessary to overthrow Erdogan through the victory of the opposition in the elections, that is, he showed open interference in the internal affairs of our state. But I see that the sentiments of the Turkish people are more moderate, especially since the opposition, having suffered a stunning defeat, falling behind by 8-10 percent from its own forecasts, is unlikely to be able to consolidate its supporters and destabilize the situation,” the expert noted.
Iranian journalist Khayal Muazzin also noted in his Telegram channel and on various platforms the calm nature of the past elections, but also expressed Tehran’s interest in re-electing Erdogan, as a well-known and negotiable player. Whereas if his opponent comes to power with the support of the West, the Ukrainian crisis will be strengthened by drawing Ankara into the conflict.
“These elections decide not only the fate of the Turkish people, but also the fate of the entire region, because Turkey is an important power for neighboring countries. And Erdogan’s victory is very necessary, of course, for Russia and Iran, since we can agree on some pressing issues and resolve them with the current president. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is not at all the candidate who, if successful, will maintain further good relations with neighboring countries, because he will primarily implement Western interests and involve Turkey in the conflict in Ukraine on the side of NATO,” the observer pointed out.
To sum up, we can say with confidence that the Turkish people showed true democracy and maturity, as the turnout exceeded 88% and, although the degree of tension was extremely high, it did not develop into a direct physical confrontation between the two camps during and immediately after the elections. And although fears and threats remain, the chances and determination of the protest forces are evaporating, bordering on demoralization.
We will monitor developments as these next two weeks will be decisive.
Of course, a large percentage given to the opposition will now push Erdogan to quickly resolve social and long-standing border conflicts. First of all, we are talking about resolving the situation together with Moscow and Tehran in neighboring Syria with the goal of returning five million refugees and relieving the burden on the Turkish economy.
And, of course, the result on May 28 will determine the future direction of Turkey's foreign policy, especially its increasingly close relationship with Russia, as well as the shape of its economy.
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