Erdogan is gradually entering into confrontation with the West
The Turkish leadership is going all in, deciding on an open conflict within NATO and taking an increasingly tough position on the eve of general elections within the country, which are also being moved to an earlier date.
Washington, in turn, is trying in every possible way to put pressure on Ankara, playing the card of persecution of the “democratic opposition.”
In addition to demands from the White House not to comply with the Montreux Straits Agreement and to allow US and British ships into the Black Sea, a confrontation within NATO is also playing out before our eyes on the issue of the final admission of Sweden and Finland to the alliance. After all, Türkiye has so far vetoed their entry.
In turn, the head of the organization, Jens Stoltenberg, complained about Ankara’s demarche, saying that this would only benefit Vladimir Putin. According to the NATO Secretary General, it is necessary to immediately resolve all contradictions and come to a common agreement.
Yes, Turkish edition Indyturk.com quotes Stoltenberg, who, speaking about the processes of membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO, said the following:
“The time has come to complete the process of ratifying Finland and Sweden's NATO membership in their country assemblies. These countries will continue to work closely with Turkey in the future in their fight against terrorism. Finland and Sweden have fulfilled the requirements of the memorandum they signed with Turkey during the NATO accession process. This process must now be completed."
But it is obvious that the Turks do not suffer from the desire to be drawn into a military confrontation in the southern theater with Russia in the Black Sea region and Transcaucasia in the event of American provocations on the Russian-Finnish border. After all, any conflict staged by the Anglo-Saxons between the new NATO members and Moscow is fraught with the expansion of the source of a future war, and the next step the alliance will definitely require Erdogan to observe his allied duty.
Therefore, in response to Washington’s demand, the Minister of Defense of the Turkish Republic, Hulusi Akar, invariably and stoically repeats the following:
"We expect Finland and Sweden to understand Turkey's security concerns and take the steps promised in the Madrid Agreement."
And formally, Ankara is right, since not all hiding militants of the Kurdistan Workers' Party and Gülen supporters were handed over by Stockholm and Helsinki, and the latest action of hanging an effigy of Erdogan in the Swedish capital, carried out by pro-Kurdish activists, generally infuriated the Turkish leadership, which is now being actively used as a reason to delay as long as possible the admission of these countries to NATO.
At the same time, the Swedish prosecutor's office refused, at the request of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, to open an investigation and imprison the instigators, which infuriated Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, who released a whole statement, accusing Sweden of patronizing racism and essentially issuing an ultimatum.
“No one should try to deceive us by saying: 'In Sweden there is freedom of expression, it is not a crime', no one should tell us that. This is a racist act and a hate crime. This is contrary to universal human values and is a crime under international law.
If Sweden thinks it will distract us with word games, I would like to say that it itself will end up being deceived. Either they will become victims of mines planted by terrorists, or we will move forward, fulfilling the agreement, taking into account the safety of all of us,” a well-known Turkish publication quotes the minister Milliyet.com.tr.
That is, either the PKK militants and Gülenites are on a silver platter and all the documentation about the activities of the intelligence services of these countries against Turkey, or there will be no consent from the Turks to accept the Swedes and Finns into the alliance. And it is quite possible that such a formulation of the question may ultimately work.
The president of the Washington Research Center, Dmitry Simes, comes to the same conclusion, who noted:
“Mr Erdogan is used to bargaining to the last minute, and he will certainly use the leverage he now has to extract concessions from his NATO allies, as well as please his nationalist electorate ahead of the scheduled elections.”
The fact that this retaliatory campaign is intensifying is also evidenced by rallies within the republic itself demanding Turkey’s withdrawal from NATO.
Moreover, the last action on January 20 in Ankara was carried out by activists of the Turkish Youth Union (TGB), which is actually the youth branch of the Turkish Homeland Party (Vatan Partisi). This party was formed with the active participation of military retirees and leftist Kemalists, which is very symbolic. After all, it is Many former and current military men, out of patriotic feelings and based on national interests, advocate a military-political break with the West.
Erdogan’s administration also made a very sharp statement regarding Washington’s attempts to put pressure on Ankara on the topic of violation of political and democratic rights related to the upcoming elections.
Thus, Turkish Presidential Press Secretary Ibrahim Kalin commented on the statements of former US National Security Adviser John Bolton as follows.
“Attempting to take charge of the democratic will of the Turkish people is a futile attempt. Gone are the days of playing colonial governor,” Kalin said.
The thing is that the ruling coalition decided to shift the dates for holding presidential and parliamentary elections from June to May, which caused discontent both on the part of the liberal opposition and their overseas patrons. This is to some extent confuses the cards of the six largest opposition parties, which have united to develop a strategy in opposition to Erdogan.
We are talking about the Republican People's Party (CHP), still struggling to unite around its own National Alliance, along with the Happiness Party (SP), also the Good Party (IP), the Future Party (GP), the Democratic Party (DP ) and the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA).
And it all started with the fact that at the beginning of the week, as the publication writes, Liderbursa.com Deputy Chairman of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erkan Candemir, made a statement about early elections, one of the most discussed topics on the agenda.
He was echoed by Devlet Bahçeli, head of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), part of the ruling coalition with the AKP, who said:
“We need to reach an agreement in parliament and hold elections. The election issue must be put to rest in May.”
As a result, this idea was supported by the unified leadership of the ruling coalition, and now the tentative general elections will take place on May 14. At the same time, the main task of Erdogan and the big Turkish business that supports him is to prevent the opposition bloc from coming to power, which has a real chance of achieving this with the support of the West.
Therefore, it is no coincidence that in his speech at the party forum on January 18 in Ankara, as the newspaper writes Daily Sabah, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the so-called opposition bloc a "table of six", "coup sycophants who seek to accept a foreign mandate", referring to the US and EU, adding they do not want people to determine their future through democratic elections.
According to the edition Al-Monitor/Premise, which conducted the survey, Turkey's current liberal opposition, represented by the six-party bloc, is four points ahead of the AKP and its de facto ultranationalist ally.
The opposition alliance receives 36% of the vote, while support for the ruling alliance is 32%. The ruling AKP received 28% of the vote, and the Nationalist Movement Party received 4%.
The poll found support for Turkey's pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) at 4%. And it was the Kurdish vote that was decisive in the 2019 local elections, and many believe that this time it could also be vital.
In turn, Erdogan adopted pronounced anti-Western rhetoric, declaring that he would now protect the country from enslavement. He is trying to rely on conservative Muslims, who make up the majority of rural residents, who have embraced the idea of reviving the former power of the Ottoman Empire.
Recently, the head of the AKP has also been trying to enlist the support of former and current military personnel who are now opposed to NATO, and apparently will receive it.
In order to turn the situation around, the president has already announced a plan to overcome inflation and made unprecedented social concessions to the population, promising to increase the minimum wage by half, pensions by a third, and announced the write-off of interest on loans and student debt. It is planned to increase allocations to the healthcare and education systems.
In such a situation, the victory of the AKP and Recep Erdogan, against whom the opposition has not yet been able to field a consolidated candidate, would be in Russia's interests and would serve to further imbalance NATO.
This is confirmed by the Turkish analytical portal A News International, noting that relations between Ankara and Washington are approaching the point of no return:
“The United States is seriously concerned about the situation when a Turkish ship broke free of its NATO anchors and began to drift in the harbor of the East.”
And in this sense, critical support for Erdogan, despite the fact that Turkey is a regional competitor and has its own imperial ambitions, would be justified, since he becomes an important connecting figure in the new world order, turning the country into a logistics and gas hub, preventing the West from creating a blockade ring around Moscow.
The British publication The Economist accuses Erdogan of establishing a dictatorship.
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