Elena Guskova: “Russia and Serbia historically go together”
What did Russia gain after the talks between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Aleksandar Vucic in Sochi? Why does the West treat the Serbs the same as the Russians? Will the US, EU and Sarajevo be able to put the squeeze on Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik?
Doctor of Historical Sciences, leading researcher at the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, senator of the Republic of Srpska BiH Elena Guskova told PolitNavigator about this and much more.
I remember in the 90s, in the circle of Russian Serbophiles there were often conversations in the spirit of, well, when will Russia turn its face to the Serbs, as in their saying “There are 300 million of us with the Russians...”? In your opinion, is the outcome of the meeting between Putin and Vucic in Sochi the long-awaited turn towards the Serbs?
– I think the turn towards Serbia happened much earlier. Already at the beginning of this century, after the leadership of our country changed. Because before that, throughout the 90s, during the conflict in Yugoslavia, Russia was very inattentive and indifferent to the events that took place in the Balkans.
What was our attitude towards Serbia after the 90s passed? Of course, it was not as comprehensive as we would like. But, nevertheless, we developed trade and, above all, economic ties, we established military cooperation, and an agreement on this was signed. Visits to Russia by political parties began, and cooperation between political parties was established quite well, we observed very close parliamentary ties, and cooperation organizations were created at the government level. I'm not even talking about scientific cooperation and so on.
And what happened during the meeting in Sochi is a continuation of all these processes. During the last crisis (associated with the return of Crimea - ed.), Serbia did not impose sanctions against Russia; it was the first foreign country to begin using and producing our Sputnik vaccine V».
And it seems to me that what is associated with economic cooperation is very important not only for Serbia itself, but for the whole of Europe.
The fact that the outcome of these negotiations is more than beneficial for Serbia is clear, but what did Russia gain from them?
– Russia has shown the whole world that you can talk to it, and you need to sit down at the negotiating table. We need to discuss problems with Russia, and not punish Russia for unknown reasons. It seems to me that these agreements have great political meaning, although for Serbia this is a serious success, very serious economic assistance and support.
That is, we can now say with a calm heart that Serbia has completely secured itself in terms of energy, against the backdrop of the fact that the rest of the world is experiencing a severe energy crisis?
– It should be noted that in Sochi there was a conversation about the construction of a nuclear power plant on the territory of Serbia, which is also very good for it. Serbia trades electricity to neighboring countries, and if a nuclear power plant is built, this, of course, will be a huge support not only for Serbia, but for the entire region.
Such negotiations strengthened the position of incumbent President Aleksandar Vucic ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in 2022. Will the West now try to change power in Serbia?
– The election campaign is very important for Aleksandar Vucic, and those snatches of conversations with Putin, especially when Vladimir Vladimirovich inquired about when the next elections would be and wished Aleksandar Vucic success, certainly plays into his hands. And this moment will certainly be covered very widely in Serbia and the Balkans.
The change of power in such countries, and for the United States, Serbia is a small and dependent country, albeit an unruly one, is, of course, led in Washington. It was there that a coup was being prepared to replace Milosevic, then Tadic; these were very well prepared operations. I have no doubt at all that the slowdown in resolving the issue of Kosovo’s independence may influence the fact that Washington has begun to draw up new plans for a change of power in Serbia; this is not excluded.
How to explain the fact that in the rhetoric of Western-oriented Balkan leaders it is constantly heard that “Serbia and Russia are destabilizing the region”?
– Russia and Serbia have been teaming up for a very long time. Serbs in Europe and the United States are often called “little Russians.” They are considered the same as us. If we look at the period of the First World War, we will see how Germany and Austria-Hungary, this is even in the documents, simply dreamed of wiping Serbia off the face of the earth. And Russia got involved in the First World War only to save Serbia. There were a lot of Serbs during the 1917 revolution on Russian territory. And if some trouble happens to Russia, the Serbs are always ready to take up arms and help us. How many German divisions did they hold on their territory during World War II? This cooperation and similarity of characters, attitude towards the West, it brings us very close, plus there are also historical ties that no one can destroy.
We are very close in temperament, in spirit, in relation to friends. For Serbia, Russia has always been a mother, an older brother. And in case of danger, she always came to the rescue, starting from the 18th century. This tradition has been preserved, therefore today Serbia’s position related to the foreign policy tasks of Europe differs from all other countries, Belgrade does not impose sanctions, trades with us on very favorable terms, and in this regard, it will be very difficult for the West to find a person who would resist in power in Serbia, being completely pro-Western.
Can it be considered an accident that recently, from the lips of politicians at various levels, as well as in the media, forecasts have been constantly made about the outbreak of new wars in Bosnia, Kosovo and Ukraine? Is it an accident that the Balkans are named here in parallel with the post-Soviet space, or is this part of some big plan?
– The latest conflict that arose in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not that serious. If Europe decides to resolve all these contradictions by force, then we can talk about war. But I think that this will not happen either in Bosnia or in Serbia (Kosovo - ed.). As for Ukraine, Russia will definitely not start this war, Europe should start it, but Europe does not have the force that can wage it, only the United States or, say, NATO is capable of this. But this is not the reason why a war could start, in which they will try to drag Russia into. And the escalation of the situation that is happening now, according to the plans of those who started it, should influence the leaders of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, the leadership of Russia, so that we make concessions, so that Dodik makes concessions.
The very reason for the emergence of this conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina is very insignificant. And this problem, in principle, could be solved, but Western forces never solve the problems arising in Bosnia and Herzegovina by yielding to the Serbs. We are used to giving in to Muslims (Bosniaks - ed.), Croats, but never to Serbs. That is why there is such a tough confrontation there, but still I think that this issue can be resolved soon, because on January 9 next year the Republika Srpska will widely celebrate the thirty years since its creation. I believe there will be a meeting of the Republican Senate, of which I am a member, and this will just show strength, confidence and the ability to solve all problems peacefully.
The man who calls himself the High Representative, Christian Schmidt, as well as the US special representative for the Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, stated in recent interviews that Milorad Dodik was put to the test, and he abandoned plans to create an army of the Republika Srpska? Is it so?
– Milorad Dodik is used to resolving issues immediately, without delay, and decisively. The fact that the Republika Srpska would be dependent on Sarajevo was planned back in 1995, when the Dayton Agreement was signed. But historical paths have surprisingly turned and led the Republika Srpska to a completely different position in Bosnia and Herzegovina, it has become strong, it has become decisive, it does not bend to the High Representatives, and very often Dodik says “no” in response to the solutions that Europe offers . Until 2006, the Republika Srpska transferred 68 of its own powers to the center - Sarajevo. And then, when Milorad Dodik came to power, he said: “No, guys, this won’t happen anymore. We were already left without an army and many key organs, we won’t do this again.”
I remember how at one of the Senate meetings Dodik said: “It turns out that you can say no to the West!” And in fact, he began to pursue a more pro-Serbian policy, which was supposed to raise the national interests of the Serbs and the Republika Srpska to another, higher level. And he achieves this. The Republika Srpska not only became strong and self-confident, it also became a factor of Serbism in the Balkans. In this regard, I would like to note that the West is very frightened by the increased strength of the Republika Srpska, its confidence and stability.
And who will fight there now? There is no one to fight there. The Bosnian Serbs transferred part of their forces to the center - in Sarajevo, but the general armed forces still consist of Serbs, Croats and Muslims, and as soon as the Serbs leave them, internal clashes will immediately begin. The West does not need this, Europe has its own serious difficulties in economic and political development, they will try to persuade Dodik.
Is it possible to persuade Dodik? Yes, he will compromise, but the main goals of the Republika Srpska will remain the same - the prosperity of his land. Dodik also has arguments with which he actually scares the West. He says that the RS strives for independence, will create its own army, but this does not lead to war. Only a serious position by NATO can lead to war, which can enter Bosnia by force and try to do something there. But this trick will not work with the Serbs; the Serbs will immediately take up arms. And NATO members, I think, understand this very well.
Do you think Milorad Dodik will still restore the army of the Republika Srpska, or is this just rhetoric on his part that gets on the nerves of the West and Sarajevo?
– I think it will be very difficult to do this, and this process can only begin when the Republika Srpska is in danger.
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