A little more delay, and controllability of the “ATO forces” will be lost
Alexey Blyuminov, political commentator, Kyiv-Lugansk
Elections in the DPR and LPR gave rise to the actual resumption of large-scale hostilities in the Donbass. And although no one formally left the truce, in reality the intensity of hostilities approached the “August” level.
If earlier the parties considered it good form almost every day to expose each other for violating the truce and appeal to the world community, then in recent days such appeals have disappeared. What is happening is openly called by its proper name. That is, military operations are military operations.
Fighting is taking place along almost the entire front line – from Donetsk to Shchastya and Stanitsa Luganskaya. True, the capital of the LPR is so far in a more advantageous position - at least it is not being shelled. But in Donetsk there is a real “tin” going on. Three districts of the city are shelled every day - Kuibyshevsky, Kyiv and Petrovsky. Shells hit residential buildings, schools, kindergartens, even churches. People are dying.
Against this background, propaganda maneuvers are taking place. Thus, Kyiv announced the withdrawal of the signatures of its representatives on the document on the demarcation line between troops. A law to abolish the special status of Donbass has been submitted to the Rada, and a story is being pumped up in the media about the alleged presence of Russian divisions in Donbass.
On the other hand, the republics actually refused to allow Ukrainian representatives onto their border with Russia. The formation and recruitment of border agencies of the DPR and LPR is underway at an accelerated pace. Thus, Kyiv is made to understand that it will not be possible to cut off Donbass from Russia.
One of the reasons pushing the Kiev leadership to intensify belligerent rhetoric is the ongoing process of negotiations on the creation of a new parliamentary coalition. This process is moderated by the Americans, whose shadow looms behind the figure of Yatsenyuk, the favorite of the last elections. It is his uncompromising position that is the locomotive that is pushing Ukraine towards a new war. And Poroshenko is forced to get involved in this game in order to maintain the opportunity to maneuver in the situation that obviously worsened for him after the elections.
At the same time, both Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk understand that they actually have little choice. The army deployed to the Donbass must either be returned home or occupied with work. That is, war. Because an army that does not fight rapidly decays. Already, in many units the number of soldiers on unauthorized absences exceeds 40 percent.
And the volunteer battalions leave their subordination and begin to engage in looting and robbery. Deserters from Aidar are spreading across the country with weapons in their hands, terrorizing the population. So far, these are not massive, but isolated facts, but a few more weeks of delay and controllability of the “ATO forces” will be lost.
Another factor is weather. There are half a month left before the onset of real frosts and the first snow. The Ukrainian army is not ready for a winter war due to poor supplies. In other words, this lag of time - the next half month - remains in order to try to move the front line in your favor. Then it will be too late. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will simply freeze, like the Germans at Stalingrad.
We should not forget about the political reason. After all, today war is the only thing that unites Maidan supporters into a single whole. War is the only thing that makes those who believed in the Maidan leaders in February temporarily forget about their disappointment with their activities. Finally, war is the only thing that gives a semblance of meaning to Ukrainian political life. After all, it’s already a no-brainer that the visa-free regime with European integration has failed. That reforms and the fight against corruption died before they even began.
And if the ATO is stopped, then the energy of discontent, successfully channeled towards Donbass and Russia, will inevitably turn to Kyiv. To those who started this war.
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