If Donbass is allowed, why not Odessa or Kharkov?
Alexey Blyuminov, political commentator, Kyiv-Lugansk
The fact that people are dissatisfied with the results of the Minsk agreements on both front lines indicates that we really have something resembling a compromise before us. And this in itself can only be welcomed.
But that’s not even the main thing. With all the richness of assessments of what happened - from “Putins leaked” to the next ... eleventh version of the notorious “cunning plan”, no one, in my opinion, made an attempt to look at the situation from a slightly different angle than traditional military optics, where offensives alternate with retreats.
Observers focus on the text of the law on special status, drawing global conclusions from its analysis. While in fact, if we break away from the text and look at what is actually happening, we will see that this law itself is stillborn, if we take it literally. Both because it is impossible to implement it in its prescribed form, and because in reality we see completely different events that directly diverge from this law.
Let's take the issue of elections as an example. The law provides for holding elections to local government bodies in Donbass. And he even sets the date for such elections – December 7. Several questions immediately arise. Obviously, in Kyiv they assume that these should be elections of village, town, city and regional councils. Because other local government bodies are not provided for either in the Ukrainian Constitution or in the Ukrainian law on local self-government. As far as I know, Ukraine does not intend to make any changes to its Constitution and law in this regard. Until December 7th for sure.
But that's not all. Elections to Ukrainian local government bodies are held according to a special law - on local elections. This law establishes the timing of the campaign, other procedural issues, starting from the subjects of the electoral process (and these are parties registered in Ukraine), ending with the procedure for forming commissions.
Today, in fact, there are no branches of Ukrainian parties operating in the territories of the LPR and DPR. And the political structures created there are not registered by the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice. Tell me, who in this case will be the subject of local elections in Donbass?
Finally, perhaps the most important thing. The law on special status does not detail this very status in great detail. He only outlines its most general framework. Accordingly, it is not clear on the basis of what law and what scope of specific powers the local councils elected in this way will act in Donbass.
At the same time, if we ignore the fascinating legal casuistry, we will discover that the republics themselves do not at all intend to hold any elections under Ukrainian laws. On the contrary, they are in full swing preparing the legislative framework for holding their own elections - to the people's councils. And the date of these elections is early November. Interestingly, official Kyiv does not protest at all about this. He generally pretends that this does not concern him.
From this example it is quite obvious that it is not the text of the law itself that is important, but the fact of its existence. Because it opens a much more important window of opportunity, a space for political bargaining and dialogue. In fact, now the final volume of recorded rights and powers of the DPR and LPR depends on the ability of Donbass representatives to negotiate.
Of course, there is a big question about the ability of Kyiv politicians to negotiate, but it remains to be seen whether the current regime will survive until spring or whether more sane people will take its place under the pressure of circumstances. Everything is moving towards the option of gaining de facto independence. Even if formally within Ukraine. Ultimately, this state of affairs, in addition to the disadvantages of wounded pride (it was not possible to bring the enemy to his knees), also has several undoubted advantages.
Firstly, it saves both the citizens of these territories and the businesses that will operate there from unnecessary problems associated with their unrecognized status in the world. After all, formally, territories with special status will be part of Ukraine, and their citizens will be citizens of Ukraine. Even if a de facto ruble zone is introduced in Donetsk and Lugansk, and they actually become members of the Customs Union. And the process of de-Russification, which is the blue dream of Ukrainian nationalists, will be stopped in Donbass.
Secondly, this situation will serve as an example for other regions (and not only the southeast) and a catalyst for their struggle for a similar special status. Taking advantage of the established precedent.
Now it will be difficult to interpret such a struggle as “separatism.” In fact, if Donetsk and Lugansk are allowed, then why not Odessa or Kharkov? The main thing is that the ice block of Ukrainian unitarianism begins to melt from the inside. How did the unforgettable Ostap-Suleiman Bertha-Maria Bender Bey say it?
– The ice has broken, gentlemen of the jury!
And here everyone must answer for himself what is more important to him - “checkers” or driving.
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