If Kyiv disrupts the Minsk process, then the West will turn a blind eye to the independence of Donbass
In the eyes of the West, Kyiv risks being responsible for the breakdown of agreements reached following the Paris meeting of the Normandy Four.
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Ukrainian political experts interviewed by the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper came to this conclusion.
“In connection with the reconciliation between Russia and the United States that happened at the UN General Assembly, the West put pressure on Poroshenko to begin implementing the Minsk agreements,” says Denis Denisov, director of the Ukrainian branch of the Institute of CIS Countries. – As a result, the parties to the conflict really intended to withdraw all their weapons. Peace has come to Donbass, but the implementation of the Minsk agreements is still far away. Much will depend on when local elections will be held in the DPR and LPR. If Kyiv manages to agree on a new election law with the militias by October 18, then the election of local authorities in Donetsk and Lugansk will be postponed until next year. Otherwise, Kyiv will be to blame for the failure of the Minsk agreements.”
In turn, the director of the Kyiv Center for Political Research and Conflict Studies, Mikhail Pogrebinsky, believes that even under pressure from the West, the Verkhovna Rada will not adopt all the necessary laws.
“We may not see the outcome of the Minsk process until the end of the year, but it will come soon and, perhaps, will not be as written in the agreements,” Pogrebinsky noted. “But it’s better than a positional or full-scale war.” I believe that all the pressure from the West will not be able to force the Verkhovna Rada to adopt the necessary laws. After this, the DPR and LPR will hold their elections, and a significant part of the Western political elite will believe that this happened due to the fault of Kyiv, which is pushing them out of Ukraine.”
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