If election turnout is low, unexpected forces may enter parliament - forecast
There are political forces that are interested in holding parliamentary elections as soon as possible because they expect to gain enough votes against the backdrop of a generally low turnout in the summer.
This forecast was made at a press conference in Kyiv by the director of the Agency for Social Communications, Sergei Belashko, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“On the one hand, there are oligarchs who are interested in getting a reprieve and rebuilding their political project, or two or three projects, and in these columns going to the elections in the fall. And there are people, other oligarchs, who, on the contrary, want to enter with a low turnout.
To make it clear what we are talking about - with a turnout of 50 and a kopeck (52 percent was in the presidential elections), to get one percent you need about 160 thousand votes (even a little less, at 52; there were 157 thousand). Accordingly, in order to overcome the barrier, the party must gain 800 thousand votes. This is not so much in principle if you mobilize in one given region. Remember, there was an indicative story in 98, when “Hromada” passed at the expense of the Dnepropetrovsk region, progressive socialists - at the expense of Sumy, SDPU (o) at the expense of Transcarpathia, and so on?
Yes, four parties are guaranteed to pass, but up to four more parties may enter this mobilization. They don't work with everyone. We may not even see this company somewhere on TV, but they mobilized their people and brought them to the polling stations, controlled the voting, and recruited these 800-850 thousand and crawled over the barrier,” he predicts.
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