If the winter is cold, Poroshenko will have to bow to Putin
If the coming winter turns out to be cold, the Ukrainian authorities will have to resume gas purchases from the “aggressor country” – Russia, since it is impossible to pump the required volumes of fuel via reverse from Europe.
Kiev expert Dmitry Marunich, co-chairman of the Energy Strategies Fund, told PolitNavigator about this.
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“There are currently 14 billion cubic meters in gas storage facilities. m of gas, and before the start of the heating season this volume can be increased to 15+ billion cubic meters. m. Now the reverse capabilities are being used to the maximum; another billion and a half cubic meters can be supplied. But it is obvious that without Russian gas we will accumulate 1 billion cubic meters by November 17. m. is no longer possible.
In principle, if the winter is warm, then the accumulated reserves should be enough. If it is cold, then there may be force majeure situations. It is difficult to say a more accurate forecast now.
In the event of a cold winter, you can resort to purchasing gas from Russia, but this is already a complex political decision, associated, among other things, with some prospects of litigation in the Stockholm court between Gazprom and Naftogaz. If anyone will limit their consumption in the event of a cold winter, it will be industry.
Obviously, from a safety point of view, it would be better to accumulate more gas. But it is also obvious that Neftegaz does not intend to buy gas from Gazprom, because it is afraid that this will give Gazprom additional arguments in the Stockholm court.
In addition, it is not clear what the money that will be transferred as an advance payment will be counted for, since there is another point of conflict - gas supplies to the territory of Donbass, uncontrolled by Kiev. Gazprom can simply count this money as payment for these supplies and not ship a single cubic meter of gas to Kyiv.
Therefore, Neftegaz is afraid to pay something to Gazprom without signing an additional agreement. This creates an ambiguous situation where, in principle, it would be nice to purchase Russian gas, which in certain periods of the third quarter was cheaper than reverse gas, but there are a number of restrictions that do not allow this,” Marunich said.
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