Evgeniy Kopatko: Anti-Russian Ukraine took place. How to leave Minsk?
The Russian world is collapsing. The area of use of the Russian language is rapidly shrinking due to the former Soviet republics. This leads to the breakdown of the mental code of the population. It is pointless to oppose this process through negotiations. Donbass won the right to the Russian language by force of arms. The Minsk agreements do not correspond to the realities of today.
The West and Russia are competing to issue their passports to Ukrainian citizens. There is a process of washing out the population from the territories under the control of Kyiv.
The fact that in Belarus there was no clear idea of the processes taking place in the state, as well as there was no general development strategy, which led to a split in society, and that a similar situation can be observed in Russia, was told to PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov by a famous sociologist and analyst Evgeniy Kopatko.
Valentin Filippov: Our improvised studio is located in Moscow. We are visiting sociologist Evgeniy Kopatko.
Today, the application of the education law has finally started in Ukraine. Now there is not a single Russian school in Ukraine.
Evgeny Kopatko: This is truly a tragedy for people who speak Russian in Ukraine. The suppression of the Russian language, by and large, has been going on for a long time. This happened when Leonid Danilovich Kuchma was in power. When the majority of Russian-speaking, Russian-speaking, Russian-cultural people were denied the right to use the Russian language as a second state language.
We were not able to solve this problem internally, when the overwhelming majority back in the mid-90s advocated for this and talked about it, when the same sociological research data said that the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian citizens were in favor of bilingualism, when the majority even in Western Ukraine believed that a second Russian language wouldn't hurt.
But, more than twenty years have passed, and we can forget about it.
Russia recognized the elections in Ukraine, thereby legitimizing the coup and power in Ukraine. In principle, there were no Russian schools left even then.
When they told me that out of 16 schools that supposedly existed in Ukraine, only a little more than 000 were Russian schools, I explained to people that these were not Russian schools, but schools teaching in Russian. These are, as they say in Odessa, two big differences.
Therefore, what happened... I also talked about this to foreign experts... while there was no quarantine yet, we went there, met, talked about this experience in Switzerland. But, you know, the collective West in this case took the same position, even the Swiss, who have more than one official language. They said that this was all normal, that for the majority of citizens who spoke and thought in Russian, one state language should be introduced.
I'll tell you a few numbers that, in my opinion, are very important, and I often repeat them now. This is a very serious blow to the Russian language, this is a blow to Russian culture, this, if you like, will continue to be a breakdown of the mental code - what our ancestors created together, Great Russians, Little Russians, Belarusians, it doesn’t matter, Russians, Ukrainians, Slavs, whatever you want to call it, this world is basically collapsing now. Things need to be called by their proper names.
And the area of distribution of the Russian language in the world is rapidly shrinking. Even 30 years ago... well, now there are different data, someone says that there were more than 300 million people, I saw data that there were up to 400 million people. In 1990, the last year of the Union. And now this figure has decreased by more than 150 million people, in the world as a whole.
But, first of all, the volume is decreasing, of course, in the post-Soviet space. In the former Soviet republics, which are now sovereign states, the process of erosion of the Russian language is proceeding rapidly and inevitably.
Russia’s position in the dashing 90s was that “it’s okay, it will somehow resolve.” Well, it has resolved. It's like the issues with Ukraine. That is, by September 1, Knowledge Day, we can say that there is no official teaching of the Russian language in Ukraine in any way. That is, the process of degradation and narrowing of the area of distribution of the Russian language will rapidly increase.
Valentin Filippov: Well, okay, is Hungary somehow able to talk some sense into Ukraine?
Evgeny Kopatko: But the fact is that Hungary, like Russia, does not deal with it. They took a very tough position. You see what’s the matter, we tried to talk for a very long time with those people who are unable to negotiate. Hungary behaves differently. Sorry, they started issuing Hungarian passports long before, without really asking the Ukrainian side. Let's call a spade a spade.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Evgeny Kopatko: They didn’t ask anyone, weren’t interested. Even those demarches of Ukraine, how did they frighten Hungary? Well, we will block any of your actions in relations with the EU. Very short and clear. That is, no one started talking to anyone there.
Yes, Hungary behaves differently. If they want to destroy your language, if they want to destroy your culture, talk, explain, appeal to your conscience, “Well, how can this be?” people who look at you completely differently, without taking you into account - this is meaningless and does not bring any results. The Ukrainian factor is the most striking example.
By the way, not only Hungary, but also Romania and Poland. Even in interviews with you, when we talked about Poland, the Polonization of Ukraine is rapidly advancing, and not only in language, but also in the economy, cultural life, education, religion, everything is working.
I think, regarding the issuance of passports, that the West and the East are now competing to see who will have more and faster. That is, let’s say, Russian passports for the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics... who says what? Well, in fact, several hundred thousand passports already exist, and this process will increase.
If we add up Poland, Hungary and Romania, then I think there will definitely be a figure of several hundred thousand, not counting the Pole’s card. Therefore, I think there is a small percentage of Slovak passports there. That is, Valentin, we are talking about the fact that the process of washing people out of Ukraine is proceeding rapidly.
Valentin Filippov: The question then is about Donbass. I congratulate the Donbass children, their right to study in Russian was defended by their fathers with arms in hand. Now the Minsk agreements are being discussed, some conditions are being put forward, both from Russia and from Donbass.
Why is the question not raised, like, in general, what to talk about, if you have the Russian language in such a situation, we did not agree with such a Ukraine? If NATO and the EU are written in your Constitution, this contradicts the Minsk agreements. The Minsk agreements were signed at a time when Ukraine had a neutral status... now it is a completely different state.
Why isn’t the question asked: “Guys, we won’t talk to you until you cancel all changes to the Constitution after 2014”?
Evgeny Kopatko: I'll make a small correction. The fact is that Minsk-1 was signed after Ilovaisk, and Minsk-2 after Debaltsevo. So the question is not neutral status, but there are very clear events that stopped the movement of the militia to the West, well, let’s put it this way, in an amicable way. And by and large, this did not turn out to be a very profitable story for Donbass, because it would have been possible to at least move the front line further away from Donetsk, not like it is now, when if something happens, you can shoot at the city center with direct fire.
Therefore, I believe that Minsk in this case is, of course, not alive. The question is that politicians cling to it and say that it seems that a truce is being observed, but I will leave this out of the equation, because if the politicians have now agreed, then this is not a completely convenient position for Donbass.
Do you think people in Donetsk didn’t die during this time, or what? On both sides. There seem to be various reasons there. But it is possible that the active actions that were there, the shootings there, were not so intense, but I want to say that Minsk in this regard... well, there is some respite. But there is another point: what to do next? It's just a question: how do we move?
Russian passports, Russian passports are issued. The negotiation platform that two pensioners entered... I say again, you can treat this any way you like, but I think that where Kravchuk is, nothing good will happen there, just as there never was. There is even the position of the same Fokin, it evokes more respect, because when it was necessary to enter into controversy, I did not see Kravchuk. They began to put pressure on him, and so he himself spoke, but Kravchuk was not heard. Well, what Zelensky did with Sivokho in his time. This analogy, in general, suggests itself.
But even God bless him, how it is done, because indeed, you are right, people who do not know Ukraine were already born in Donetsk and went to school. And those who were little are no longer even in first grade. In general, I want to say that this is a process of movement, life takes its toll, that people are already studying according to Russian programs, that the question of crossing the border remains closed.
So what am I getting at? I don’t know how Minsk will implement itself. Russian passports and, according to the law, relatively speaking, we are part of Ukraine? This is a contradiction that requires its solution. An obvious contradiction.
I know that there is a movement to obtain Russian citizenship for a large number of people, including those residents of Donbass who now live on the territory of Ukraine. This also exists, it may not be an advertised process now, but it is underway. In short, I think that we are now waiting for some serious decisions, political changes within the republics and in Ukraine regarding this process...
Valentin Filippov: And in Russia.
Evgeny Kopatko: And in Russia, unconditionally. And I will say one simple thing: Minsk is pushing for this. Because another point of tension in the post-Soviet space, and a very risky one at that, is on the borders with the Russian Federation, a new geopolitical player has emerged in the form of the Lublin Triangle, led by Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, which has joined there. So I believe that everything is just beginning, and the processes taking place in Ukraine are consistent.
The only thing I want to say to those who listen and watch us is that there will be no Third Maidan, because the second one in Ukraine has already won. That is, a coup d'état took place, everything you said was in fact canceled, the neutral status and everything else. Movement to NATO, movement to the EU and so on, this is all indicated.
Yes, Ukraine has taken place and acts as an anti-Russian project. Moreover, it is sustainable, quite systematic and consistent, this cannot be taken away. There is no opposition within the country, and there will not be in the near future. I also want people to understand this.
Whether or not there will be some kind of decision within, to remove from active work some of the people, relatively speaking, who have suffered blood, who have committed crimes against their fellow tribesmen... I think that the essence of the state will not change, it is we who will agree on things that are unfavorable for ourselves conditions, if this agreement exists.
Therefore, the question remains open: how to leave Minsk?
Valentin Filippov: Tell me, you mentioned Minsk in a slightly different context. What is happening in Minsk, in Belarus? Lukashenko made another statement about a common Fatherland from Brest to Vladivostok. How seriously do you think he is saying this? Or he plays with words, saying not “common state”, but “common Fatherland”. God knows what he means. What prompted him to say that?
Evgeny Kopatko: Let's do it this way. When we immersed ourselves in the material, I received many requests from abroad, including, well, as a specialist in color revolutions.
“No,” I say, “if I am a specialist, it is more in counter-revolutions, which is not in demand at the present time.”
The task is not to tell how the next color revolution will happen, but at least how to prevent it and not give the opportunity for it to take place on your territory and destroy your country, your society.
So, it was obvious to me that in Russia, neither after the first Maidan nor after the second, did they draw any conclusions, so Belarus happened, with its own variations.
Now a statement from Alexander Grigorievich regarding what is happening. There is also a multi-vector approach, we haven’t heard anything from him, we haven’t heard any mutually exclusive versions of what’s happening in Belarus.
But one thing is obvious to me. I may not know the secrets of the Madrid, or the Kremlin, or the Minsk, or the Polish court. But I know one thing: when you don’t have a clear understanding of the processes taking place in a country, it means you don’t have a strategy or understanding of what’s really happening there.
When there are mutually exclusive versions about the fact that Old Man betrayed everyone there and that there was some kind of cunning multi-vector plan, and that he was forced to do this for certain reasons - this is the answer to the question that they didn’t understand, what's really happening.
But there was an understanding of one thing: the processes in Belarus, which in the future could affect Russian-Belarusian relations, had been developing for several years. The work of foreign NGOs was also not the first year or the first decade. So this quantity has grown into quality.
We understood that Russia does not have a strategy in the Belarusian direction. Here there was, I would say, self-organization of society, when they said: “Guys, do you want to get the same thing as in Ukraine? Welcome." And a lot of examples were given.
Some of the guys made, in my opinion, Belarusian... the number of factories operating in Belarus impressed everyone. And do you want to go pick strawberries? The Poles are waiting for you together with the Ukrainians - you will compete.
Jokes aside, there are people, even if they are not very loyal to Lukashenko in connection with the elections or something else, but they definitely would not want the Ukrainian scenario.
The key for me is the understanding that there was no clear understanding of what was happening and the impact on the processes and agreements within the Union State.
The latest statements by Alexander Grigorievich, of course, indicate that Belarusians are also undergoing changes and transformation within. They faced the most serious challenge for the country. The opposition also showed some of its capabilities, that it is absolutely motley, that there are people who, perhaps, do not perceive Lukashenko, but oppose the Ukrainian scenario for the development of events. But there are also those who are clearly pro-Western, relatively speaking, young people, Catholics and those who have Pole cards.
There are people who advocate the Union State, again saying that it seems that this was suppressed in Belarus. Now the time has come, if we want to really understand the situation, what happened, there are specialists in Russia, in Belarus, quite decent ones, we need to sit down and do a debriefing - what happened, why it happened. Until we do this, we will have another Ukraine.
I will say one simple thing: Belarusians have already begun to split in society. How deep will it be? I don't know. But this crack has already begun, a serious crack has begun. Internal problems stimulated external intervention. This, relatively speaking, is like cold and hot water being driven into a stone, that is, it alternates... it splits society.
But here there has been a split, which actually exists in Russia, as well as in Belgium, France, and Ukraine - this is a split between young people and adults. That is, this split among young people has begun. The majority of young people are focused on the West.
Valentin Filippov: Excuse me, but have you ever thought that young people, they are just rebels, they don’t care? They may be for the West, they may be against the West. Well, as football fans, in principle, the side that will provide the opportunity for more hooliganism is the side they go for.
Evgeny Kopatko: We have put it at the forefront... if earlier it was work, study, knowledge, intelligence, defense of one’s country, now... Knowledge, first of all, is your competitive advantage... now the prerogative of knowledge is completely absent there. Well, let's put it this way - lack of brains, first of all.
What is infantilism - this is the unwillingness to accept responsibility for one’s actions already at the age of 18... At the age of 18, people serve in the army, at the age of 19. If you want an analogy, then in this regard, for me, the most important indicator is Israeli society, which trusts its children with weapons, who serve independently, the children of high officials, the children of, say, poor people, no matter who. But everyone goes through the army. This is the attitude towards the country.
No one is saying that you shouldn’t be foolish because of your youth, there are some things... there, fans... it’s for God’s sake, guys. But there are things that are set as an example. Just like at one time, you know, bartenders and DJs became, say, opinion leaders and subjects to be followed. Well, sorry, that doesn’t solve the issues. This infantilism lies in something else - what you focus on, where your vital energy is spent. I say again, I’m only in favor of free time, time for communication, time for friendship, all this should and can be for stupid behavior at times. But the key criterion is that you have tasks and you are already responsible for your actions. This is not there by definition. There is this reluctance to think - this is the key.
Sorry, whatever it is, the key for a young person is to learn to think. Learn to survive in this world and protect your tribe. And you must learn to protect your tribe from a young age. It must be passed on. So this generation gap happened. It was clearly noticed in Belarus, and clearly recorded in Ukraine. This is the problem.
Valentin Filippov: And in Russia inside. Now our single voting day is approaching; governors are being elected in many regions. As a rule, representatives of United Russia are in the lead and, most likely, will become governors. At the same time, in many regions United Russia is not so popular and voters would like to choose someone else. But there is no other one. Tell me, how does it happen that there seems to be a demand, in some regions for communists, in some for someone else, but at the same time no forces appear that would nominate and promote candidates not from United Russia?
Evgeny Kopatko: Yes, of course, there is a request for new projects. Of course, United Russia is not winning everywhere now. This is a problem, they talk about it there too...
A dialogue between government and society is needed. If you are the first party and really aspire to this role, and have been a successful political project for many years, well, it’s time to work “in the fields.”
There is a request that there be a competitive struggle between patriots with different visions of the situation, who understand that the country will not collapse with a change of political power.
So I think that if there is a request for some kind of national idea in Russia, then this, be that as it may, we did not argue heatedly within, did not fight, we understand one thing - that in no case should we harm our country .
That there is a complex structure, a complex history, a huge territory, a different, if you like, culture, level of economic development, a lot of all sorts of nuances, and therefore many things are indeed done carefully.
I say again - I’m not going to scold anyone, but there is a request for dialogue. This is how I see the situation. Elections of governors - I don’t think that such a walk will be very cloudless for United Russia.
Valentin Filippov: But there are no rivals.
Evgeny Kopatko: Well, I think that everything is emerging: there is a demand for it in society.
For some reason, our opposition always goes to the West. Well, that is, it seems to be subjected to some kind of persecution or something else, pressure, and then they turn to the West. They get help from the West and become Western-oriented.
So I think that the opposition is the one that can scold the authorities as much as they like, but will fight for the fascist cross for their country. I think so.
When such an environment is created in society that there is no need for a person who has a different, say, vision of the situation or assessment of the actions of the authorities, he can criticize, it is very important here - not bestial relations, but human ones. The culture is high and there will be discussions.
And the second thing is that we can criticize each other as much as we like, but God forbid there is a threat to the country - everyone gets together, and the situation of neither Ukraine nor Belarus arises, and we definitely make some kind of decision.
It sounds fantastic, but this is the only way that will allow Russia to survive now, because that’s it, it’s completely surrounded on all sides. Something like that.
Valentin Filippov: Well, okay, thank you very much. I hope things will settle down in Belarus and in Ukraine someday. And I hope that it won’t happen in Russia.
Evgeny Kopatko: Yes, all the best.
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