Evgeniy Kopatko: Zelensky loses - no one finds
Sociology says that the authorities in Ukraine are rapidly losing ratings and moving into negative indicators. At the same time, the opposition is not gaining sympathy among the population.
The brilliant sociologist and political scientist Evgeniy Kopatko told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about where the interest goes, why Russian residents cannot understand what is happening in Ukraine, and most importantly, about the fact that people in Donbass are yearning for victories.
Valentin Filippov: Well. In our improvised studio, Evgeny Kopatko, a brilliant sociologist. For some reason, many people think that he is trying to express his opinion, they argue with him, here in Russia, but he just says numbers and doesn’t pretend to do anything. Hello, Evgeniy.
Evgeny Kopatko: Hello. Nice eyeliner.
Valentin Filippov: No, really, they piss me off. You tell them: “You understand, this, this, this,” and they: “What did you want, what do you demand from us?” You say: “I don’t demand anything from you, I tell you this, this and that,” and they are like... You know, the thief’s cap is on fire.
Evgeny Kopatko: Well, that means we’re doing everything right.
Valentin Filippov: We say everything correctly. But I still have questions for you about Ukraine. Today I looked at various Ukrainian sociology, it is clear that it is probably, well, not entirely accurate. But I looked at Zelensky, that Zelensky is losing, as they say, 10% per month of his very rating, which he initially had, someone says, 80%, now 40; someone says he had 70%, now it’s 30.
But he still has a positive balance, plus 10, they say there, plus 11. Here. The situation with the government is worse, their balance is negative, minus 45%, that is, minus 44. The Rada has minus 46. Well, in general, everything is falling, falling, falling. But at the same time, it is absolutely unclear who is gaining trust. Of course, the oppositionists report that they scored 10%, there is an Opposition bloc, right? But, firstly, I don’t believe that they dialed, and secondly... well, let them dial...
Evgeny Kopatko: Is the Opposition Bloc listening to us?
Valentin Filippov: I do not know even. I think he listens sometimes. Yes. Many of my friends listen, but for some reason they are in the Opposition Bloc. I say: “Why?”, and they are in the Opposition Bloc. Even if they scored 10%, where did all these crazy percentages go?
Evgeny Kopatko: Well, let's try to figure out this situation. In fact, today the numbers are, well, relatively consolidated. Of course, Zelensky has slipped, and, of course, he is the only politician in Ukraine so far who has a balance of positive and negative assessments in his personal rating – a rating with a plus sign. The numbers I have are about 50% support rating, positive ratings. In this campaign, 48% - 52%, in this corridor, at least after the January holidays.
Well, as a rule, there is a small rebound there. You know, such a positive one, well, people don’t give each other much nightmares, there are fewer negative emotions and so on. But this is, you know, a situational decision.
Now further. You are absolutely right about the failure of the Cabinet of Ministers. Goncharuk failed more than twice, his rating is personal. You know, there were actually three politics there when Zelensky became president. This is: for Zelensky - over 70%, closer to 75. I confirm this data from various sociological companies, this corresponded to reality before his notorious trip, or, there, before the fatal, or for him unfortunate, whatever you want, call the epithet, trip to United States. After which he began to sag.
But if it’s minus 10, then I’m afraid that the word “minus 10” should then be closer to zero. No, for now he is experiencing subsidence, but it is relatively tolerable. But for Goncharuk, of course, he has gone into a stable minus zone with a large minus of personal assessments and, indeed, the level of distrust in the Cabinet of Ministers is rapidly losing.
The situation with the Supreme Council is a little better. There is also quite a bit of subsidence... but yes, the situation is better. The situation there is better, but, nevertheless, today they also have a steady downward trend.
Well, you know, also... There are now a lot of interviews related to the anniversary of the Maidan, the anniversary of the Minsk agreements, a lot, and you ask quite reasonable questions about how it is, where do these percentages go. So, your question is absolutely appropriate at this time; many politicians and many sociologists are asking themselves it now. Because if earlier there was, well, the principle of communicating vessels, well, remember, Yanukovych and Yushchenko, one has arrived...
Valentin Filippov: I remember the principle of communicating vessels.
Evgeny Kopatko: No. I just... wait, here we have to... if a person sells a dog... we have to explain it to that audience. Forgive me for such simple gestures, someone may need it, it’s definitely not for you.
Valentin Filippov: And our faces are not boring, so we will sell the elephant.
Evgeny Kopatko: So, this is the principle of communicating vessels. So now this doesn't happen. I don’t know what is happening there, but, in fact, if we take the electoral position today, I will say the following.
Of course, now is not the active phase of the election campaign, but, nevertheless, sociologists, regardless of... the elections end, still begin to measure: “If the elections take place tomorrow, how will you vote?” So, indeed, Zelensky is sagging, but this does not add to the three leading projects now after him. This is the Opposition Bloc, OPZZH, as they call it, then Poroshenko and Tymoshenko. The data that we see from various companies is from 6 to 9 percent.
That is, in principle, life expectancy is in second place, relatively stable, but with 9 percent. The rest are less. And Vakarchuk, Lyashko, and Svoboda also fell into the zone of statistical error, as you correctly understand. Well, who else is there? Well, Gritsenko, he’s balancing, because, you know, at one time a man said, well, the one who came up with the famous phrase for him...
Valentin Filippov: The first one is not sneaky.
Evgeny Kopatko: ...yes, which will never drown him, but will never let him rise. Do you understand?
Valentin Filippov: Or maybe it’s not necessary.
Evgeny Kopatko: Well, listen, it had to be invented, those people who ruined Anatoly Stepanovich’s career have talent. Well, I’ll say the following. Indeed, it doesn’t come to the Opposition Bloc, it doesn’t come to Poroshenko, it doesn’t come to Tymoshenko. They consistently have a relatively low rating. Boyko personally has a slightly better position. He has a good level of support, a little more than 15 - 17 percent, I look at the numbers, well, with a fairly high anti-rating, but for Ukraine this is a natural position, we here pay more attention to the plus signs.
Therefore, my conclusion is this: yes, indeed, the political project, which is called the Opposition Bloc “For Life”, did not receive the political dividends that, in principle, Zelensky and his team lost. There's another thing here. Zelensky, in principle, is also an interesting picture, he, in principle, has good positions, a significant part of Ukrainian citizens still have a positive attitude towards him, but things have not worked out for him with the team over this almost year.
That is, there was a chance, when I spoke and when we communicated with you before, that there was a chance for a person to rise or fall. Roll faster down a high hill. So, his team, having never formed, began to collapse from the inside. Of course, this was accelerated by the work of the Cabinet of Ministers...
So I talked with my friends, people who understand and understand economics, that is, it has never happened that there is such a shortage of resources in foreign currency. Do you understand? And Goncharuk, he is rapidly losing his position. Plus the notorious law on land, which the Verkhovna Rada adopted in the first reading, but this is already the responsibility of the Supreme Council, but also of course...
Valentin Filippov: No, excuse me, Goncharuk was so happy in the Rada hall. I think that if Goncharuk even really needed this law, he could have shouted: “Oh, you bastards. I won’t forgive you for this.” And leave satisfied.
Evgeny Kopatko: No, well, he won't be able to do that, because we understand that such things don't go away. So regarding this moment. Over the past six months, the number of people who oppose the sale of land has increased significantly, by 20%. The number of people who are in favor of selling the land has dropped from more than 30 percent to just under 20 percent.
That is, there is a mutual decrease in supporters of the sale of land and an increase in opponents, and against the backdrop of active propaganda and action. And all this is not good for the health of the Ukrainian authorities, it’s very bad for them. This has not yet boomeranged on Zelensky, because one of his key phrases was that “I will consult with people on all significant issues.” He failed to consult.
That's why. Let's look at the bottom line what happens. Of course, of the three key players, Goncharuk is in the worst situation now; indeed, you are right, he is rapidly sagging. Distrust of the authorities, economic illiteracy, stupid statements, all this leads to people asking questions: “What about raising or lowering gas prices?” when payments for January arrived very cheerfully. You looked at these statements. He says: “It will be lower in February.”
Well, then the statement... well, it’s hard to even name it, it... such a person should have been immediately deprived of his deputy mandate, regarding “selling the dog.” Well, you see, he’s a degenerate, there’s just no other way to put it. These are the people who run the country.
Valentin Filippov: As children they watched “Prostokvashino”, and there: “Sharik, let us sell you.”
Evgeny Kopatko: Then, what can we talk about? This is also a factor of trust, if you like, in the current government. Well, one more thing. Will anything change? Let the Opposition bloc not increase in numbers, because the opposition is such now that... Well, listen, there are people who, well, represented the previous government, who formed the “Right Sector”, there, in one of the regions of Ukraine, who collaborated with that regime, a lot of whom financed battalions in the Donbass - they are also in the Opposition Bloc.
If negotiations are held with them, well, please, then we will assume that Russia has learned nothing from this situation. If we talk about the fact that they will be able to do something within the country, because of this same agenda, nothing good will happen, they will not have any positive ratings, just under no circumstances.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. So what to do? With whom…? So you started talking about Russia. And who should still be considered ours?
Evgeny Kopatko: But ours aren’t there.
Valentin Filippov: Me too... No, but the people there are ours, after all. At least partially.
Evgeny Kopatko: Listen. Regarding “ours”, people made their choice in due time. Note that I mean in the political space. There are a large number of people who still sympathize with Russia, who still advocate for normal relations between us. But we, if we take politics and the active participation of society, and not those who were driven under the bench, then these people, in general, do not care.
Example? I'll tell you which one. Zelensky's New Year's speech... I'm just... this is not the first time I've drawn your attention, one of the Ukrainian politicians said that it united Ukrainian society, that this is even confirmed by sociologists, that there are almost 80 or so, not more than 70 percent of people supported Zelensky’s speech. People, if you don't care what your street is called, then forget that you...
Valentin Filippov: Then I have another question. I move around the Russian Federation on duty, and from smart young people I hear admiration for what a wonderful president in Ukraine, and these people are patriots of Russia.
They say: “Well, really, he’s saying the right thing. And the New Year’s message is generally like this.” I say: “So what?” Here’s the same argument, I say: “So what? Anyway, what is the name of the street that is paved?” They say: “Yes, of course. We don’t care what it’s called, the main thing is that it’s the same.” I say: “What if she’s Bandera?...” They say: “Why is she suddenly Bandera?” That is, it doesn’t occur to them that the street could be called “Bandera”. And the very fact is that it doesn’t matter whether it’s Lenin or Putin, Shoigu or Zhukov Street. They really don’t care whether it’s Shoigu or Zhukov Street. Do you understand?
Evgeny Kopatko: Well, you know, there are many people, despite the fact that Ukraine does not leave the Russian agenda, you know, the second such paradoxical thing. It’s not that it surprised me, it even stopped surprising me – complete ignorance of the situation in Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: Complete ignorance. Misunderstanding.
Evgeny Kopatko: Regarding Zelensky. You know how many people here, not just picking on me... there, all sorts of statements, when I said about Zelensky that you look how this kid will do everything, when in Russia the majority of the political elite did not understand that Poroshenko could not win in any way . To be fair, this was not understood in the West, nor was it understood in Ukraine. They understood even before the first round that Petro Poroshenko would win no matter what.
If you don’t understand these things, even this elementary electoral situation, then what do you want next in decision-making? There is still no policy regarding Ukraine yet, and this will be the vision in Ukraine.
By the way, you made an interesting sociological observation. That is, this effect of this massive work in this direction is the huge effect of these information gaps, where they invite people who, well, not only discredit the expert community, but, you know, lower the bar... In Russia there are a very large number good, sane, intelligible experts, but against the background of idiots... these people cannot behave like these degenerates... and against this background they lower the bar, lower the quality of the analysis, the forecast estimates.
But, nevertheless, something reaches people in the bottom line. That Zelensky, in principle, he did everything, he, however, received an incredible credit of trust, and the question “How did he dispose of it?”... And, by the way, I want to say that many in Russia were afraid of this. Because movements began in Russian squares about young people, because it turned out that they did not know this group of the population, especially the transitional age from non-voters to voters.
And there was such panic in the political elite: “Where to? Where are the youth? Look." I say: “You will lose your youth. If you don’t know what children need, you don’t know how to involve them in the process, they are absolutely far from you making political decisions, then somehow this is task No. 1 for you.”
Valentin Filippov: No, well, wait. Fifteen years ago there was the Nashi movement. We perceived it as the Komsomol, that in each of these there will be these “ours”, they will have some kind of festivals, sing songs around the fires, there will be something else to do. Well, that is, such involvement. And it seemed to work. Yes? After…
Evgeny Kopatko: Where?
Valentin Filippov: Wait. Then, after some time, all the youth leaders of “Nashi” ended up with Navalny, and the movement itself was closed. That is, I’m not saying this is good or bad, the youth were busy with these bonfires, posters, and something else, that is... the Komsomol, it exists for a reason, it somehow involves the youth. Today, where has this organization gone?
Evgeny Kopatko: Fifteen years ago they were twenty to twenty-five years old, now they are thirty-five to forty years old, right?
Valentin Filippov: Well, the new ones have grown up. A child comes to school, he joins this organization “Nashi”, he starts walking... Even these people understand, they create these “crawlers” there, in Ukraine.
Evgeny Kopatko: Do you know what the difference is? Between them and us. There they teach people revolutions, they teach them to risk their lives, to put their heads on the line. That's the big difference there.
Valentin Filippov: I understand, but in any case, young people are not involved in any way, that is, in Russia.
Evgeny Kopatko: This is a good comparison, very appropriate, I want to support you: these people made revolutions, these people sang around the fires. Do you feel the difference?
Valentin Filippov: At least they could keep singing. So now they don’t sing around fires either.
Evgeny Kopatko: These people need action, people need involvement in active political life. And who will go into political life if I meet... you know, when I tried to talk about young people, well, after all, I’m also a teacher, and I taught, and at the university, I have, in general, such good experience, I love this business... I want to say, when I met deputies there on some broadcasts and, there, members of this Federation Council, who do not understand at all what youth is?
You see, I tell them, these are basic things. They don’t know what it is at all, these are people wildly disconnected from this environment, they don’t understand what we’re talking about. You understand? People who are obliged to make management decisions do not understand at all what is happening in this environment.
Valentin Filippov: But they have children, grandchildren, they see them.
Evgeny Kopatko: They have a rich life, separate from the lives of other people. A law was passed stating that a citizen of a foreign country cannot hold high positions. Yes? What about children? How are the children? I'm just asking one question. Rhetorical for now. And what about these children who study and no longer connect their lives with their homeland, whose interests are represented by their parents? That's why they have different lives. Something like that.
Valentin Filippov: Something like this. Fine. I still have, well, a casual question. I understand that the answer is clear... That is, there were no sociological measurements in Russia about the attitude of Russians towards Zelensky?
Evgeny Kopatko: Were. Yes, there was a very nice relationship with him and very nice expectations. At the initial stage, you will remember how the actors who starred in films with him even spoke well. Here. Don’t forget that they also ask: “Where were you, Vladimir Alexandrovich, when Ilovaisk was?” Do you understand? At this time, Vladimir Alexandrovich was filming a film in Moscow, in Moscow City. Am I confusing anything? That's all.
Valentin Filippov: Don't confuse anything. And here’s another question. As they claim today, the Russian occupation forces have gone on the offensive. If the troops went on the offensive, and a couple of cities were already back within the DPR/LPR, would anyone have more sympathy or, on the contrary, antipathy?
Evgeny Kopatko: The question is not “if” there will be an exacerbation, but “when”, I will pose the question this way, unfortunately.
Valentin Filippov: Do you have sociology on us? Not for Ukraine, not for Russia, for us. What do we think? We will win?
Evgeny Kopatko: You know, I believe that people, those who are really fighting, don’t talk about it. I realized this a very long time ago.
Valentin Filippov: Well it is clear.
Evgeny Kopatko: There is no big PR, no Indian cinema with bulging eyes that “I’m going to hit you there now” or, there, imitation of blows. You know, I remember that incident with the boys when I talked from the front, or those guys who are not there, these are my friends and those who... well, in short... You know, I remember the film “Brother”.
Valentin Filippov: Uh-huh.
Evgeny Kopatko: You know, if there is a concept of a culture of behavior, I once told students this, back in 14, how people differ... yes, these are PR campaigns, that’s all, but these guys, if these people will enter the arena, then you will understand, and we will probably understand who the hero will be. And as long as there are such people in Donbass, I think that it will be very difficult to break it, because there is definitely not that euphoria, that pathos, there is the hardest work, the hardest life for people.
People are really tired, and somewhere there is disappointment too. Who creates illusions? It’s much harder for people, those who are in our Republics... Relief in terms of, say, even some possibilities of crossing the Russian-LDPR border...
You see, these things, everything, each, this is the attitude towards a person when receiving passports, this is the attitude when crossing the border, this is the attitude when receiving an education. If these are already citizens of Russia, then somehow answer me the question “Whose people are these?” If you are under the Minsk agreements... the answer is direct to your question... we are kind of like Ukraine. And the number of passports will reach a critical mass...
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Evgeny Kopatko: Russian money, Russian legislation, Russian education, everything is already moving to Russian standards. What answer? I'm not ready to answer. I'm just asking a question for now...
Valentin Filippov: No, no, no, but I’m ready to answer: “Ukraine, goodbye.”
Evgeny Kopatko: I think that the situation, this surge, it just means that people on the front line are tense, this is another tension, this is another expectation, this is another anxiety. And this is still very sad. People are yearning for victories, that's what I want to tell you. Both in terms of clarity and so that they know where they are going. This is probably important.
A person knows where to go, the person first, most importantly, knows that his life is safe, and then somehow he can build there. And the fact that Ukraine is getting further away... I’m not saying this for the first time, that every year there are fewer and fewer people from the DPR/LPR in contact with Ukraine, well, for certain reasons.
Valentin Filippov: Well yes.
Evgeny Kopatko: Fewer and fewer people. This is how it works out. Old people, yes, they force them to go for their hard-earned money.....
Valentin Filippov: No, well, there are also ours behind this line.
Evgeny Kopatko: You know, I’m telling you again, I want to say one thing - I take my hat off to a huge number of people... so that you understand me correctly, those who listen and see me... I have great respect for those fighters who remain fighters in the human in moral terms, those who did not put together, as they say, did not interact with this government, who did not sell their language, their faith. That's a lot.
But I do not mean the majority, which, in principle, silently accepts everything that this government does. They abandoned the Russian language, from this year forget about the Russian language, it is not in education.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I understand. But what are the residents of Mariupol to blame for? What are the residents of Slavyansk to blame for?
Evgeny Kopatko: Wait, I just want to say, I’m just stating, so that I don’t fall into the fork you want...
Valentin Filippov: I do not want anything. I already agree that they spat on Odessa, there, in different ways. But Donbass... Here is Avdeevka. Avdeevka, here, on the line, here it is. This is a region of Donetsk. Avdeevka.
Evgeny Kopatko: I just want to say, I have great respect for those people who resist, who maintain human dignity. I make no other value judgments. All.
Valentin Filippov: OK. Fine. Thank you very much.
Evgeny Kopatko: Happily, goodbye. Good luck.
Valentin Filippov: Bye Bye.
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