Euro rally in Chisinau: Western curators should like the picture
Last Sunday in Chisinau, on the Great National Assembly Square, a mass rally “European Moldova” organized by the authorities took place. The purpose of the event was to show the desire of the country's citizens to integrate into the European Union, to which Moldova, along with Ukraine, became a candidate for membership in 2022.
Residents of Moldova, who were brought to the rally from all over the country, demonstrated their agreement with the pro-European course by holding flags of the Republic of Moldova and the European Union in their hands and chanting “Moldova is Europe!”
The President of Moldova, Maia Sandu, and the Head of the European Parliament, Robert Metsola, addressed the citizens. The resolution of the meeting confirmed Moldova's desire to become a full member of the EU. On the same day, protests and public meetings took place in Moldova with a completely different agenda than in Chisinau.
We talk about the rally, designed to talk about the European dream of the Moldovan people, and related events with the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, Igor Shornikov.
PolitNavigator: A rally was held in Chisinau in support of Moldova’s entry into the European Union. It took a long time to prepare for the rally; it was announced a lot. According to the authorities, it was possible to gather 75–80 thousand people in the square. The final resolution of the meeting calls for the inclusion of a provision on European integration in the Constitution of Moldova. How serious are the rally itself and its results? Isn't it part of the Potemkin village that is being built in Moldova for the June Eurosummit?
Igor Shornikov: The Moldovan authorities achieved their goals, they managed to gather an impressive crowd, and Western curators should like the picture. But if we talk about the scale of the event, experts say that the main square of Chisinau cannot accommodate more than 54 thousand people, therefore, judging by the photographs, about 22 thousand people gathered at the rally. In addition, it is no secret to anyone that the majority of people did not arrive there of their own free will - these are state employees who were obliged by their bosses to spend their day off in this way.
Of course, this National Assembly is being held on the eve of the summit of the European Political Community. This is an unprecedented event for Chisinau; the attention of the entire Western audience will be focused on Moldova. Therefore, it is necessary to show that Moldova is part of European civilization, as they say, flesh and blood.
The rally is not aimed at a domestic audience; it is unlikely that a beautiful picture will be able to deceive anyone in Moldova itself. All this is being done for the Western media, so that the reports that will appear, including on the results of the upcoming summit, are provided with convincing content.
PolitNavigator: President Maia Sandu told the audience that Moldova will fulfill all the conditions of the European Commission for joining the EU this year. Is it too fast? Or did you just have to talk about something at the rally?
Igor Shornikov: The fact is that the European Commission itself will decide whether Moldova has fulfilled certain conditions or not fully fulfilled them. Chisinau just needs to draw up a nice report for officials in Brussels. The European Commission is a heavy and clumsy bureaucratic mechanism that works strictly according to its regulations.
If the European Union has made a decision regarding Moldova, it must comply with all technical procedures. Therefore, what Maia Sandu says should be taken seriously. It cannot be ruled out that the West decided to tear Moldova out of the space of Russian civilization, within the framework of which it developed throughout most of its history.
PolitNavigator: At the rally it was proposed to expand the international context of negotiations on the Transnistrian settlement. How much and how can it be expanded?
Igor Shornikov: Quite recently, we heard initiatives from the Moldovan side to raise the status of the EU and the US in the “5+2” format to the level of full-fledged settlement mediators. Currently, Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE have this status. Formally, the EU and the US do not have the right to vote in this format; they can only observe. The status of a mediator will allow American and European diplomats to put forward their own initiatives to resolve the conflict.
If we project the experience of European and American diplomacy onto the instruments of influence of the EU and the United States in our region, including economic ones, there is no doubt that the Transnistrian issue will be resolved quite quickly, but not in the interests of the peoples of Moldova and Transnistria, but in the interests of Western “partners” .
By the way, recently Vlad Kulminsky [who served as Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration and Moldova’s political representative in negotiations with Transnistria in 2021] admitted that a settlement could take place before the end of 2023. This is a very bold assumption, which cannot but have some basis.
PolitNavigator: The rally participants spoke about the unity with which the Moldovan people are moving to Europe. Against the background of the rally for European integration in Comrat, Orhei, Balti, there were other rallies - anti-government, for a referendum on determining the external vector of Moldova. Will things go beyond words here?
Igor Shornikov: So far, we see that the regional elites do not want a conflict with the central authorities, they want to smooth out the growing tension in society, and maintain relations with Chisinau on a legal level. They are certainly right about this. Strength is on the side of the state, and the people who now govern this state are not entirely predictable.
The opposition and regional elites hope to survive until the elections and quietly, in a civilized way, send the current authorities into political oblivion. They don't want shocks. But there is a possibility that it will not be possible to live peacefully until the elections. The Gagauz have already shown a high level of self-organization and consolidation, and that they are ready to defend their autonomy if it is treated without respect. But in other cities of Moldova, society remains divided.
A referendum on the geopolitical choice for the people of Moldova is certainly overdue. Transnistria held a referendum of this kind back in 2006 and, as we know, there are still no discussions in society on this topic. Moldova should also rely on the wisdom of the people, hold a referendum and consistently implement its decisions, and not speculate with geopolitical slogans during election campaigns or arrogate to itself the right to decide for the people how to manage their own state.
PolitNavigator: Maia Sandu tried to speak Gagauz at the rally, and at the same time in Gagauzia they were chanting that the central authorities were leading the country in the wrong direction. The autonomy is now under particular strain - Chisinau intends to cancel the results of the Bashkan elections that took place a week ago. There is a pause on this issue; a decision has not yet been made. What could be the fate of this expression of will?
Igor Shornikov: If Chisinau tries to cancel the election results, this will mean disrespect for the Gagauz voter and interference in the internal affairs of the autonomy. Residents of Gagauzia decide for themselves who to elect to the highest post in the autonomy, and they are ready to defend this right. It is important that Eugenia Hutsul’s victory was immediately recognized by her main rival, Grigory Uzun, and the legitimacy of the elected Bashkan was confirmed by the People’s Council of Gagauzia.
The most prudent thing for the Moldovan authorities would be to let the situation go and let it develop in accordance with current legislation. All attempts by Chisinau to influence the past elections are perceived both in Gagauzia and beyond its borders as the suppression of democracy.
But impunity for power, even temporary, is a dangerous thing. Now Chisinau is playing with fire and, it seems, does not even understand it. It is easy to destabilize the situation, but it will be difficult to deal with the consequences later.
It would seem that the example of Transnistria should have taught respect for the rights of national communities, but in Chisinau all these years they have been trying to build not a state for its residents, but a “second Romanian state.” Hence the unsettled relations with Transnistria, the problems of dialogue with Comrat, and the difficulties in understanding the problems of national minorities.
PolitNavigator: The topic of relations with Russia was not ignored at the rally. Slogans were heard that “Chisinau does not bend to the Kremlin’s blackmail,” continues to “condemn the aggressor,” and so on. A few days ago, Speaker Igor Grosu announced that Moldova was initiating withdrawal from the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly, and resolutions had been adopted to denounce several agreements with the CIS. Is Moldova's exit from the CIS a reality or just political rhetoric on the eve of the summit?
Igor Shornikov: No, the decision to leave the CIS is a mandatory program of the current government, which it is consistently implementing. This is another signal that the West could have made some kind of decision regarding Moldova, and as long as the current team is in power, the West has the opportunity to implement this decision.
What is this solution? European integration, “unira” with Romania or some other Anglo-Saxon project like Intermarium, it’s hard for us to say, we can only be sure that this project will be aimed at using Moldova’s resources against Russia.
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