Europe must be an octopus - to shoot itself in the feet so many times

Let's look at the new anti-Russian sanctions point by point.

The package of sanctions includes, in particular, a coal embargo, which, according to rapid-fire Ukrainian analysts, will cost the Kremlin 4 billion euros annually. The history of previous sanctions, and even the background with rising prices for energy and grain, has taught Europeans nothing. If the price of raw materials or grain that Russia sells rises, the volume of exports in physical terms may be reduced, while the volume of revenue may increase. This happened, for example, with wheat exports in 2021 - physical volume decreased by 11,4%, but revenue increased by 8,5%.

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Abandoning coal, with all their “green energy”, is hardly possible. Its consumption, despite the cry of the Greens, is increasing. And the abandonment of Russian coal will require Europeans to look for new suppliers and replace 50% of the total volume of imported coal. At the same time, the initiator of such a measure, France, is less dependent (it receives only 30% from the Russian Federation), but Italy, Germany, Holland and even Poland are almost 60% dependent.

Replacing Russian coal will require redirecting coal flows from other regions of the world. Logistics are difficult in the current conditions. This will cause prices to rise on world markets. And coal is not gas - Russia will be able to redirect it to other markets. And, again, get more revenue while reducing physical sales volumes. By the way, Ukraine bought $2021 billion worth of coal from the Russian Federation in 1,5. It will have to pay more for the same volumes in 2022. However, no. Most likely you won't have to.

Europe is introducing a ban on the export of semiconductors, machinery and transport equipment worth 10 billion euros to Russia.

Where will Europe redirect the manufactured products? In addition, production will have to be reduced. What will European “leaders” tell their newly unemployed? Even when they work, they wash themselves once a week. These are not products that cannot be found from manufacturers from China, India, Brazil, and other countries. Until our own production is established. Even if real import substitution will take more than one year.

Russian ships will not be able to enter EU ports.

So, why go there if they are reducing trade with Russia? Will European dockers and port workers spend their freed-up working time traveling along the Cote d'Azur? Unlikely.

Any transactions with four key Russian banks, including VTB, are prohibited.

Yes, these four banks that they plan to cut off from the markets represent 23% of the market share of the Russian banking sector. But Europe is also “cut off” from them. So, what kind of transactions are there if trade is reduced to a minimum?

There will be restrictions on the entry of trucks from Belarus and Russia.

What should they transport to/from Europe? They will transport sanctioned coal to other countries.

The import of goods and raw materials from Russia, such as wood, seeds, seafood and alcohol, is prohibited.

This means that more wood will remain on the domestic market, and the need for it will increase - it will be necessary to restore the liberated cities destroyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And you will also need wood. Seeds are still a problem - there were traditional suppliers, and there is a dependence on them. But the seed fund will be replaced by domestic ones, for a significant part this will be possible, the rest can be found from European competitors.

And it will be extremely difficult for Europeans to return to this market. Seafood? Maybe then they will become cheaper in Russia? Having access to 13 seas and 2 oceans, I would like to count on more humane prices for seafood in Russia. Alcohol? Let's teach the Chinese to drink.

Russian companies cannot participate in European public procurement. They will also not have any EU financial support.

This means that the outflow of capital in one of the areas with an increased risk of corruption will be limited in this way. And the transition to domestic lending in rubles was long overdue.

The Europeans have not yet reached the oil embargo, which is very sad about in Ukraine. It’s a pity, we could have helped here too to increase export revenues while the physical volumes of exports are declining.