European sanctions. Ordinary Belarusians will remain extreme

As announced in advance, on June 21, the European Union officially adopted the fourth package of sanctions against Belarus. Tikhanovskaya personally addressed European officials before the vote, calling on Europe to “remain united, principled, not trade in political prisoners, support journalists and activists.”

Another 78 individuals and 8 legal entities were added to the sanctions list. And this is definitely not the end. Already on June 25, sectoral sanctions are expected to be adopted, which, according to insiders, will immediately affect 7 sectors of the Belarusian economy. And this is clearly not the last blow.

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European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy Oliver Várhelyi tweeted a video message from the European Union to Belarusians with the words “We will not rest until all political prisoners are released.”

Member of the Belarusian parliament and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party Oleg Gaidukevich, who himself fell under European sanctions, is convinced that they will make the country stronger; Belarus has no other way. Gaidukevich’s optimism, of course, can be envied, but this is clearly not the case when we are beaten and we get stronger. However, Gaidukevich himself also understands this - he recently said that by accepting sanctions, European officials want Belarusians to live worse. And you can't argue with that.

European officials claim that sanctions are being taken against Lukashenko’s regime. Representatives of the pro-Western opposition, especially those from the political emigration community, say the same thing. However, reading the sanctions list, you understand that they are lying. Yes, I don’t feel sorry for some of the oligarchs close to Lukashenko—the “wallets”—who are on the list. I don’t feel sorry for Gutseriev either, although the potassium production he is building near Lyuban would be useful for Belarus.

I don’t feel sorry for the customs and logistics hackers from Bremino, who do more harm to the Belarusian economy than good. But the MAZ and BelAZ car plants are industrial giants, each employing at least 10 thousand people. The latter is a city-forming enterprise for the 65-population Zhodino. Only these sanctions will deal a very painful blow not to the Lukashenko regime, but to a large city, by Belarusian standards.

As for sectoral sanctions, they will be even more painful. Three single-industry towns will be under attack - Novopolotsk, Soligorsk and Mozyr. The population of each is more than 100 thousand people. Their residents will suffer the most. But it won’t be enough for others either. We are talking about enterprises that provide a significant portion of foreign exchange earnings to the Belarusian budget, which is already bursting at the seams. It is not yet clear what sanctions against the banking sector will include, but the forebodings are not good.

There is one more feature in the personal lists of the fourth sanctions package. It includes not only court oligarchs, security forces or officials who were in one way or another responsible for repression, but also journalists, deputies, and public figures. The same Gaidukevich has nothing to do with all this. He supports the government, but is not part of it. He is a parliamentarian, the leader of a large party, which is even slightly oppositional. Approximately to the same extent as Zhirinovsky’s party in Russia.

But he consistently opposed both sanctions and the pro-Western opposition, for which he is a very inconvenient opponent. The sanctions against him and some others can be considered as the official beginning of the “witch hunt” that the Belarusian zmagars announced to their political opponents with the full support of the West.

There is no doubt that, having seized power, this public will settle scores and turn around to the fullest. And Europe and America will only applaud the repressions they will carry out.

The sanctions that have been announced against Lukashenko’s regime will hit, first of all, ordinary citizens. It is not Lukashenko who works at MAZ, BelAZ, Belaruskali and oil enterprises. It is not his standard of living that will fall. Lukashenko will resist them, but will only become angrier. And here again, first of all, ordinary Belarusians will suffer.