The Lukashenko factor. Hockey may fall victim to politics
Yesterday the Belarusian officialdom received a rare reason for rejoicing. The head of the International Hockey Federation, Rene Fasel, visited Minsk and, in a rather warm and friendly atmosphere, discussed with Lukashenko the possibility of holding the 2021 world hockey championship in Belarus.
Hockey for Lukashenko is more than a sport. His passion for hockey is well known, and his services to this sport are undeniable. During his reign, Lukashenko was able to create an excellent hockey infrastructure in Belarus, increasing the number of ice arenas from 4 to 33.
It was planned to build up more or less large regional centers with them, increasing the number to 50, but in the mid-10s the money for hockey construction ran out. However, the existing infrastructure is quite sufficient to host the World Cup. Belarus already held such a championship in 2014 and did it well.
In 2014, Lukashenko held his championship, relying on the same Fasel and contrary to the opinion of the Belarusian opposition. At that time, Belarus was also under Western sanctions, and oppositionists traveled all over Europe and used all means, from official meetings to street protests, to seek the cancellation of the championship. We didn't achieve it. And within the country, despite the menacing statements, they were unable to take advantage of the abundance of foreign guests and organize something resonant during the event to attract attention.
At the end of last year, Fasel promised that he would do everything possible to ensure that the competition was held in Belarus, but will he succeed? If you don’t take politics into account, Lukashenko has all the trump cards in his hands. Fasel is his old friend; they met during the Olympics in Nagano. There is no clear anti-Belarusian majority in the IIHF Council, which will make a decision at the end of January. There are only two open opponents of the Minsk championship. The main part either adheres to neutrality, insisting that sport is outside of politics, or does not disclose their point of view.
As for Vladislav Tretyak and Sergei Goncharov, also members of the Council, there is no doubt about their support for the championship in Belarus. There is also a financial factor in favor of Minsk. The world championship is not a cheap pleasure, and the chances that it will be held in empty stands due to coronavirus restrictions are high. Under these conditions, there may not be anyone willing to bear losses because of their hockey ambitions. The main non-political complaint against Lukashenko is the situation with the coronavirus, the statistics for which many consider to be underestimated.
But Fasel himself admits that the situation this year is slightly different from 2014. At the same time, he is clearly being modest, the difference is cardinal - and it is, first of all, political. 7 years ago, Belarus was already under sanctions after the next elections, which ended in clashes, but then Ukraine was already in full swing and the Western “partners” were very interested in pulling Belarus to their side, and in the republic itself, supporters of a turn to the West began to set the tone. And the hockey championship was successfully used for this turnaround.
Now everything is different. International pressure on Lukashenko is only growing, new packages of sanctions are being adopted, Tikhanovskaya is received at the highest level and listened to.
A number of national teams, primarily Scandinavian ones, have already refused to go to Belarus. In addition to the boycott, there is another political danger - despite Lukashenko’s words that the situation in the country is completely normal for a developing democracy, its normalization is still far away. The protests, of course, have subsided and do not pose any particular danger in the current state, but the protest sentiments themselves have not gone away. Holding the championship in Minsk could provoke a new wave of protests, and the holiday would be ruined.
The main problem of the championship is the pressure on Lukashenko, which now extends to the International Hockey Federation. After Fasel’s visit to Minsk, everyone attacked him, from Belarusian oppositionists to European journalists and politicians.
The natural desire of a sports functionary to save the championship could cost Fasel dearly. Already middle-aged, the 70-year-old IIHF President is not afraid of resignation. He, like Lukashenko, has already held his post for 26 years and, unlike him, is not going to be re-elected in the fall. But these are tough times in sports and politicians are setting the tone. They can also be punished for obstinacy, as they were punished in 2015 by FIFA for the championship in Moscow.
Hockey itself may be the victim of this political squabble. If the championship is not allowed to be brought to Minsk, and no one can be found willing to host it, it may be canceled altogether or postponed for a year, as was the case last year with numerous championships and even the Olympics. You won’t even have to come up with a new excuse for cancellation.
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