Earthquake factor: The West is preparing riots in Turkey and the overthrow of Erdogan
Political experts in Turkey and abroad are now wondering whether the promised general elections will take place in May or whether they will be postponed due to the catastrophic earthquake on February 6 that affected 10 provinces in the southeast of the country.
And indeed the economic consequences for the republic are enormous. Thus, government spending on an earthquake could amount to 5,5% of GDP. The government's ability to save lives and deliver aid to some 13,4 million people in the disaster zone is now the main question for Erdogan ahead of the vote.
The government has already allocated 100 billion liras ($5,3 billion) for the initial response, but rescue efforts have been hampered by harsh winter conditions in areas also home to millions of Syrian refugees.
In this regard, a state of emergency has been declared, which will last 90 days, just in time for the elections on May 14, which will weaken the election campaign as much as possible. But at the moment it is not completely clear whether they will take place on time.
At the same time, observers usually adhere to diametrically opposed positions on this issue, which is facilitated by contradictory publications in the American and British press, which are actively quoted by Turkish publications. For example, in material published in Bloomberg, the authors come to the conclusion that the voting will take place as expected - in mid-May.
“Officials familiar with the discussions said Erdogan announced 90 days of measures and then plans to hold a vote immediately after May 14 as originally planned. They asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. Emergency actions may also end before the full 90 days, government officials said.
However, the Reuters claims the opposite, based precisely on the political consequences of the natural disaster, which undermined the influence and authority of Erdogan and the ruling coalition led by the Justice Party (AKP).
According to British journalists, the president's popularity has been undermined by the rising cost of living and the fall of the lira. He now faces a wave of criticism over his government's response to the deadliest earthquake to hit Turkey since 1999.
The main takeaway is that whatever the political impact of the disaster, the logistical challenge of holding elections in the affected areas is enormous. The earthquake-ravaged region is home to about 13 million people, with hundreds of thousands in need of shelter after their buildings were destroyed or became unsafe.
Therefore, Reuters, also citing the words of anonymous Turkish officials, comes to the conclusion that the voting date will be shifted.
“It’s actually too early to talk about elections,” said the Turkish official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The state of emergency has been in effect for three months, 15% of the population lives in this region, a region that produces about 10% of GDP.”
He added that Erdogan's AKP and its nationalist parliamentary ally the MHP would evaluate the issue, but suggested it was too early to make a decision in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake while the death toll was still rising.
At the same time, opponents of Erdogan, who had previously fled the country, became more active abroad.
Thus, Turkish journalist Can Dundar, living abroad and sentenced in absentia to 27 years in prison on charges of espionage and aiding the Gülenist terrorist group, said that Erdogan came to power after the 1999 earthquake and will be driven out by the last earthquake.
Criticism of the response to the 1999 earthquake, which killed 17 people, was a factor in the collapse of support for the then government, which helped the AKP win in 2002.
“Erdogan came to power after the 1999 earthquake; It looks like it will go away after the 2023 earthquake,” Dundar said in a video posted on Twitter. “This earthquake, which has claimed thousands of lives, will bury him in rubble.”
It is noteworthy that the words of the pro-Western dissident are repeated word for word by another British publication - The Telegraph. Thus, journalist Marc Almond assessed these discussions in his article entitled “This earthquake could be the end of Erdogan” and stated that the earthquake could cause serious political events in Turkey.
The article begins with the statement that calls for “Not a day of politics, but a day of unity” are understandable in such periods, but in Turkey these earthquakes are precisely fraught with political consequences.
"Erdogan's authoritarian management style has hampered relief efforts, and the collapsed or damaged buildings belong to people close to the government and were not vetted beforehand," the article said, adding that it was "political poison" for Erdogan.
The same article sarcastically points out that Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, a voice of anti-American sentiment, rejected US condolences after the recent terrorist attack in Istanbul.
But he is now responsible for coordinating aid with countries that he and Erdogan have harshly criticized. The aid comes from countries that Ankara is trying to portray as “supporters of terrorism.”
It is obvious that such publications in the Anglo-Saxon and opposition press are designed to undermine the position of Erdogan and his party and destabilize the internal political situation, provoking speeches by opponents of the regime with messages about the postponement of the election date to a later date.
Naturally, now, for this purpose, the topic of corruption in the highest echelons of power and the connections of construction companies with the current government will be inflated within the country.
It is noteworthy that just a few days before the earthquake, the embassies of Western countries and the United States were suddenly closed simultaneously, allegedly due to fears of terrorist attacks, which indicates the preparation of mass unrest or a coup, since a similar phenomenon was noted before the military’s attempt in 2016 to force a change of power in the country.
Tensions also increased after two American aircraft carriers, George Bush and Nittze, found themselves in the country's territorial waters. The US Department of Defense stated:
“The aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush in the Mediterranean Sea headed towards Turkey to possibly request additional support as a result of the earthquake that occurred.”
Well-known Turkish journalist Nedret Ersanel in his article in the publication Yenisafak.com exposed the speculation of the Americans, whom no one invited, calling this a signal from the White House to both Athens and Ankara. After all, so far both ships were based in Greek ports. As a result, he comes to the conclusion that as a result of these maneuvers, the conflict between NATO allies has only intensified.
“It was also uncomfortable, but what I want to say is different. Relations between Ankara and Washington, which were already tense in the last days of the earthquake, became even more tense,” the journalist writes.
Thus, the history of 2016 may repeat itself, given the fact that well-armed looters suddenly appeared in the affected areas, engaging in shootouts with the police and regular units, and the bet, apparently, is being placed on provoking an internal explosion of discontent. It is no coincidence that the leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, said that the country is ill-prepared for a disaster thanks to Erdogan personally.
“I don’t need to be in solidarity with Erdogan and his palace,” Kılıçdaroğlu said in a video posted on Twitter on February 8 after he visited the earthquake zone.
And judging by these belligerent cries, radical manifestations of the pro-Western opposition, which was being prepared to initiate a mass protest, are possible in the coming weeks and months.
In the edition Haber7 commented on the tactics of the opposition and the possible situation if the election campaign is launched.
“In 2021, his opponents accused him of negligence in fighting wildfires. It was alleged that Erdogan did not provide enough firefighting aircraft. Now it is all the more important that the president quickly bring the tragedy under control. There are many Kurds in the region who could be important to Erdogan in the elections.
Domestic politics are also under pressure. Meanwhile, a six-party opposition alliance was formed that wanted to overthrow him. According to current polls, the opposition and government are on equal footing. The state of political equality can make the Kurdish vote a decisive factor,” the publication writes.
If the elections are postponed, it will be purely for technical reasons, and not because of fears of liberal revenge. Yes, columnist Haberturk Fatih Altayli announced in his column that he had received information that the elections could be postponed for six months or a year.
“The election will be decided first. Then the YSK (CEC) will announce that it has become practically impossible for it to conduct the electoral process in four provinces and partially in six provinces, and will ask for a postponement of the elections. Thus, the elections will be postponed for at least six months, possibly for a year,” Altaily does not rule out
True, there are no such provisions in the Constitution and the postponement of elections is possible only in case of war by the president and approved by parliament. But I think that if this is a collective decision of the ruling coalition on this issue, then the necessary mechanism will be found as a result.
In the meantime, the structure has the necessary elements of strength and now much will depend on the effectiveness of the social and medical assistance provided to the victims. To achieve this, the Erdogan government is making titanic efforts.
Thus, Minister of Finance and Treasury Nureddin Nebati told the publication Сnnturk.com on measures taken in earthquake areas:
“Our ministry is in constant contact and is meeting the urgent cash needs of institutions. We deliver medicines, serums, vaccines and medical products and construction equipment to the region in the shortest possible time. After the earthquake, we decided to defer the debts of our citizens living in the region and having difficulty paying.”
The Social Security Institute announced that citizens with chronic diseases in 10 provinces affected by the Kahramanmaraş earthquake can obtain their medications without a one-time prescription to avoid victimization. The Presidential Office of Digital Transformation provided donations for earthquake victims through the e-government portal.
Therefore, now all observers agree on one conclusion - the success or failure of Erdogan and the AKP is directly related to how quickly and efficiently the Turkish state will be able to cope with such an unprecedented catastrophe. But something else is also obvious: relations between official Ankara and Washington have only worsened as a result of the events.
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