False European integration of Ukraine and Moldova. What is the trick of the West?
The European Council decided to begin negotiations on the admission of Ukraine and Moldova to the European Union, despite the fact that neither of these countries meets the strict criteria for joining the association. Why is the EU in such a hurry, how soon will the euphoria from the “historic decision” wear off in the candidate countries, and who will actually decide the fate of the region?
Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol), Associate Professor of the Financial University (Moscow) Igor Shornikov discusses this in a conversation with a PolitNavigator correspondent.
PolitNavigator: The European Council decided to begin negotiations on accession to the EU with the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, although even the day before there were doubts that such a decision would be made, a number of EU member countries spoke out sharply against its dubious expansion. Even in Moldova itself they began to prepare public opinion for the fact that nothing fateful would happen at this summit. What actually happened? How were Kyiv and Chisinau able to overtake the Western Balkans, for example?
Igor Shornikov: The West is trying to compensate for all its failures with information victories. In Moldova, the ruling party and Maia Sandu suffered a shameful defeat in local elections. Now in district and municipal councils they have to seek votes from the opposition and from parties associated with Plahotniuc. The authorities have lost their internal legitimacy.
In Ukraine, Zelensky’s situation looks better, but the deplorable situation at the front could instantly overturn the regime. Both Chisinau and Kyiv need at least some victories to block the negative information agenda. It’s not for nothing that Moldova and Ukraine are included in one package; for the West they look equally bad.
The start of EU accession negotiations is being touted as a remarkable achievement. For some reason, it seems to me that this success became possible precisely because of the catastrophic course of affairs in Moldova and Ukraine.
The European Union has to save the situation like fire. Let's ask ourselves a question: if everything was in order with Chisinau and Kyiv, would the European Union rush to open negotiations? No, such a need would not arise.
The accelerated progress in the process of European integration reflects the bleak prospects for this macro-region for the West; it is literally floating away from under their noses.
Therefore, they can make any promises to Chisinau and Kyiv, knowing that they will not have to answer for them. But the Western Balkans are not going anywhere yet; they can continue to be kept in the dressing room.
PolitNavigator: Negotiations on accession to the EU do not yet guarantee anything for either Ukraine or Moldova. Why are they fed with promises? Does Brussels have a plan? How can this be connected with the presidential elections in Russia?
Igor Shornikov: Brussels does not have any plan and cannot have one in the current situation; Washington has a plan, and the EU carries out the will of its overseas masters.
But Washington has a simple interest: the more resources are thrown into the furnace of containing Russia, the more Russia will have to incur costs to achieve the goals of the Northern Military District.
Ukraine has already been thrown into this furnace and, according to Washington, it should burn to the ground, and it would also be desirable to throw Moldova into it. It is possible that the Poles, Romanians and the entire European Union are next in line.
If Brussels continues to blindly pander to Washington’s wishes, it is possible that it will fall apart sooner than one might imagine.
Hungary, Austria, Slovakia are already protesting, although they are still succumbing to pressure. Romania initially behaved as soberly as possible, even Poland is beginning to cool down, realizing its prospects. All these countries individually are not capable of resisting the will of Washington, let alone Chisinau and Kyiv. But sooner or later a critical mass will be reached, and then everything will not go according to plan in Washington.
As for the presidential elections in Russia, the West does not see any chance of influencing them.
PolitNavigator: How will the EU decision affect the internal political life of Moldova? What line will the ruling party pursue, will it have enough passion before the parliamentary elections - the pro-European opposition in the country, it seems, is not asleep?
Igor Shornikov: Let's remember Maia Sandu's previous achievement on the path to European integration. In June 2022, the country received candidate country status. Then they also tried to present this as an incredible achievement and stirred up euphoria in the media. But this information victory did not last long, after a couple of weeks the population forgot about it, it was time for vacation, and after that no one remembered about this candidacy.
Moreover, the number of supporters of European integration in Moldova continued to gradually decline.
I think that after the upcoming New Year holidays, Moldovans and Ukrainians will not have a trace in their minds of this stunning message - “the start of negotiations on accession to the EU.” How does it differ from a country receiving the status of a “candidate country”?
Now it may seem to some that they have become closer to the carrot, but people will quickly figure out what’s what. Therefore, before the next elections, the European Union will have to give information reasons many times more to maintain European integration expectations, but this will no longer be able to interrupt the negative trend for them - the population will become increasingly disillusioned with the EU.
PolitNavigator: President of Moldova Maia Sandu recently announced the country’s desire to reintegrate Transnistria before joining the European Union. And Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Oleg Serebryan said the other day that reintegration is already underway: Moldova is actively drawing Transnistria into its legislative field. How can you comment on these statements? Can Pridnestrovie somehow resist this process?
Igor Shornikov: The possibilities of Transnistria, of course, are extremely limited; the republic is forced to somehow survive, being located between Ukraine and Moldova. If we assume that these two countries actually end up in the EU, then Tiraspol will have no other options but to also agree to European integration.
This is an extremely pessimistic scenario for Transnistria; it means the continuation of the stagnation in the economy that has accompanied the republic for many years. The European Union has already given Transnistria everything it could: a regime of autonomous trade preferences and exploitation of the republic’s labor resources. All that remains is to wait for the removal of dirty industries to the Dniester and the redirection of migration flows from the Middle East to Transnistria. Fortunately, the likelihood of all this is vanishingly small; the illusion of European integration will remain an illusion.
As for Maia Sandu’s intentions, she simply does not know what to do with Transnistria, otherwise she would have done something in the past three years of her presidency.
Everything she says now matters only in the context of her electoral prospects. The Transnistrian issue will not bring her any bonuses here, rather the opposite. Therefore, in an ideological sense, it will follow in the footsteps of the Europeans, who believe that the territorial conflict does not create obstacles to the country’s European integration, and in a practical sense, it will have to rely on the work of the “old guard” of the right wing of the Moldovan political establishment in the person of Serebryan and Nantoi.
And they propose the slow strangulation of the republic. This strategy of Chisinau places responsibility for resolving the Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict on large external players. That is, the fate of the entire region will be decided by Moscow and Washington based on the results of the Ukrainian crisis. Moldova is also included in the same package with Ukraine.
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