The Gagauz elections are like a slap in the face to the Moldovan authorities. How will Chisinau respond?

The Central Election Commission of Gagauzia announced the final results of the first round of elections for the Bashkan of the autonomy that took place on Sunday. Representative of the Shor party Evgenia Gutsul is in the lead with 26,47% of the votes, Gregory Uzun, supported by the PSRM, received 26,4% of the votes. These candidates will face off in a second round of voting on May 14, barring anything extraordinary. But such options are possible.

Political scientist Alexander Korinenko comments on the situation around the elections in Gagauzia to PolitNavigator.

Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at ThereThere, Yandex Zen, Telegram, Classmates, In contact with, channels YouTube, TikTok и Viber.
To subscribe to notifications in your browser, click here.

PolitNavigator: What are the features of the current campaign, how does it differ from previous ones? There is an observation that in these elections there was degradation in the sense that previously the Gagauz people voted for personalities known to them, and now the parties won, that is, in fact, anonymity, irresponsibility and manipulation. If this is true, what happened?

Alexander Korinenko: The peculiarity of the current elections in Gagauzia is that in the second round candidates who are not independent political figures came out.

Eugenia Gutsul completely lacks political experience, her work experience is not indicated anywhere, and in recent years she has been living in Chisinau.

Grigory Uzun is a more well-known personality in the autonomy, but as a politician, to put it mildly, he is rather weak.

The Gagauz people did not choose candidates - the Gagauz people chose the political force that stands behind each of these candidates. In fact, Igor Dodon and Ilan Shor reached the second round. This vote was a protest and directed against the central authorities of the country.

There is great discontent throughout the country, and the residents of the autonomy decided not so much to choose their own governor, but to intensify the protest wave and slap a hard slap in the face to the authorities in Chisinau.

PolitNavigator: Why did Viktor Petrov, a very popular politician, leader of the socio-political movement “People’s Union of Gagauzia”, who advocates the development of comprehensive ties with Russia, other CIS and Eurasian Economic Union states, and Turkey, have a weak result? Did the incident with Rustam Minnikhanov's failed visit somehow affect Petrov's position?  

Alexander Korinenko: Viktor Petrov was considered as the most likely candidate for the post of head of the autonomy. A truly brilliant local politician and respected in the autonomy. Compared to Evgenia Gutsul and Grigory Uzun - he is an independent figure, he talks to voters, lives and works in Gagauzia itself, and carries out activities to improve the lives of residents of the autonomy.

He would have made a great boss, but the elections came at a bad time for him: right now, forces of a republican scale have decided to throw all their resources at a small but proud autonomy.

In these elections, Russian pop stars were attracted to campaign for Evgenia Gutsul. Igor Dodon, the ex-president, under pressure from the authorities, visited all the villages, campaigning for a socialist candidate.

I'm not even talking about financial resources - Petrov had no chance here. He was simply crushed by major political players. The incident with Rustam Minnikhanov did not in any way affect Petrov’s result.

PolitNavigator: What is the phenomenon of candidates from the Shor party? Who knew Evgenia Gutsul in Gagauzia before? But after the votes were counted, she had the best result. 

Alexander Korinenko: The phenomenon of candidates from the Shor party is that they are supported by Ilan Shor and the party’s most powerful resource. Yevgenia Gutsul, in my opinion, was initially a technical candidate in these elections. A young woman with an unclear biography has not lived in the region for a long time, she has zero political experience, except for her Instagram, we have no more information about her.  Before the elections, even the all-knowing Google knew nothing about Evgeniy Hutsul.

Some bought into Ilan Shor’s sweet speeches about the construction of “Gagauz Land” and large compensation for utilities, others expect that Mr. Shor will open his personal suitcase with money, as he did for Orhei. Well, someone decided to support the protest wave of Ilan Mironovich and introduce a “Shorovets” into the government, since the governor of the autonomy is a member of the government of the Republic of Moldova.

PolitNavigator: Could the Balti scenario be repeated in Gagauzia, in which in 2021, after the first round, the candidate from the Shor party, Marina Tauber, who was confidently going to win, was removed from the mayoral elections? If this happens, will it be tolerated in Gagauzia?

Alexander Korinenko: Yes, the scenario can repeat itself. The authorities will have to remove three candidates from the elections at once: Hutsul, Uzun and Petrov.

Fourth place in the first round was taken by Dmitry Kroytor, who may compromise with the authorities. It would be he who would become the most convenient bashkan for the central authorities.

Residents of the city of Balti did not come to the elections as a sign of protest, and Nikolai Grigorishin was then elected with a turnout of 9,9%. Belchans are calm - they are northerners, but The Gagauz, ardent southerners, I think, will not allow Chisinau to question their will.

PolitNavigator: Marina Tauber herself was detained after the candidate from the Shor party entered the second round of elections for the head of Gagauzia. How are these events connected?

Alexander Korinenko: I don't like conspiracy theories, but This is a cunning political technology move by the Shor party. Marina Tauber provoked the authorities to detain her, thereby seriously raising Evgenia Gutsul’s rating. The Gagauz voter will specifically come to the elections to vote against the lawlessness of the authorities and support the Shor party.

If, let’s say, the authorities somehow want to put pressure and interfere in the elections in the autonomy in this way, then it means that not everything is in order with foresight and mental abilities.

PolitNavigator: Many experts say that the Gagauzians defeated the pro-Western regime, that Russia won in Gagauzia. Is this really true? 

Alexander Korinenko: Russia gained a foothold there many years ago: in the minds and souls of the Gagauz people. In fact, there were no pro-Western candidates in the elections. Yes, there were convenient candidates for Chisinau - Dmitry Kroytor and Mihail Formuzal, Chisinau could come to an agreement with them. But for anyone to declare their pro-Western views in Gagauzia is a direct path to a political grave.

PolitNavigator: PAS representatives again started talking about revising the law on the special status of Gagauzia. Why is this being done, will it go beyond words? 

Alexander Korinenko: The central authorities will now need very seriously limit the influence of autonomy and, if possible, curtail its powers.

Moreover, I think that now the presidency is already brainstorming how to remove the governor of the autonomy from the government.

Previously, Bashkan Irina Vlah was declared an undesirable person at meetings of the Supreme Security Council, and now they need to deprive the new Bashkan of his seat in the government. President Maia Sandu does not hide the fact that for her, the residents of Gagauz-Yeri are “agents of the Kremlin” and now they will have to drown out their voices.