Gazprom is stuck in Ukraine until 2024 – experts
Gazprom will not be able to completely exclude Ukraine from the Russian gas supply scheme after 2019, even if the Turkish Stream project is built, reports citing experts RBC.
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The publication recalls that due to the construction of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline in 2019, when the current agreement with the Ukrainian side ends, Gazprom is going to completely stop gas transit through the territory of Ukraine. But the concern will not have time to prepare for this in the remaining four-plus years, according to experts interviewed by the publication.
In the best case scenario, by 2020 the concern will be able to reduce pumping through Ukraine from last year’s 60 billion to 10 billion cubic meters. m, experts from VYGON Consulting write in the study “Turkish Stream”: scenarios for bypassing Ukraine and the barriers of the European Commission.”
According to one scenario, by 2020 Gazprom will build only one of the four planned lines of the Turkish Stream. It will be enough to satisfy Turkey's needs. Russia will be able to supply part of the gas volumes bypassing Ukraine by filling the onshore part of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, but EU authorities have not yet allowed Gazprom to use this pipeline to its full capacity. As a result, the concern will only be able to reduce its dependence on Ukraine by half, and in 2019 the monopoly will have to conclude a new transit agreement with Naftogaz for pumping 28–36 billion cubic meters. m per year,
In another scenario, if Gazprom manages to build all three lines of the Turkish Stream by 2020 and fully load the Nord Stream, it remains unclear how the pipe from Turkey will go through the EU. In particular, it is unknown whether the company will be able to build a pipeline through Greece, which is under the external control of creditors from Brussels and Washington. So in this case, it will probably not be possible to completely exclude Ukraine from the supply scheme by the scheduled date. According to VYGON Consulting calculations, at least 2020 billion cubic meters will flow through its territory in 10. m of Russian gas to consumers in Austria, Slovenia, Serbia and Bosnia.
assumes that all four lines of the Turkish Stream will start operating, and European partners will be able to select the entire required volume through the Greece-Austria gas pipeline (part of the supplies are supposed to be carried out through the TAP gas pipeline along the Greece-Albania-Italy route, to which Gazprom may try to connect) .
Gazprom will be able to completely bypass Ukraine, experts from VYGON Consulting believe – but not before 2024. This means that in 2019 Gazprom will again have to sit down at the negotiating table with Kiev.
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