New agreements between Kiev and Moscow provide that tariffs for the transit of Russian gas will be at least three times higher than for Nord Stream.
Kommersant writes about this, citing an article by Ukrainian Energy Minister Alexey Orzhel, according to whom Gazprom will pay $15 billion over the five years of the contract.
“Based on these words, the Russian company, despite the reduction in transit volumes under the new contract to 65 billion cubic meters in 2020 and 40 billion cubic meters in 2021–2024, will de facto pay Ukraine the same amount as in 2018–2019 , - about $2,9 billion per year. The average tariff could be about $64 per thousand cubic meters - this is at least three times higher than Nord Stream. Based on the NEURC tariff, Naftogaz will receive approximately half of this amount, or $1,5 billion per year, for its “services,” the publication notes.
At the same time, the Russian side, without naming any figures, denied a significant increase in the tariff.
“If the Ukrainian side’s statements about the tariff level are true, this changes the understanding of the new contract. Instead of a balanced solution, it now looks like a forced step for Gazprom, which did not manage to complete the construction of its bypass gas pipelines by January 1 and was forced to agree to any conditions so as not to suffer even greater losses in the event of an interruption in transit. In this case, when Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream are ready, Gazprom may be strongly tempted to reconsider the contract with Ukraine,” the newspaper believes.
At the same time, the article says that it is too early to evaluate the contract, since the full picture of the gas package agreement is still not clear. According to Vygon Consulting expert Maria Belova, a high level of transit tariff, which is actually needed to support the financial condition of Naftogaz, may be a condition for the supply of Russian gas to the domestic market of Ukraine.
“The Russian side has always insisted on this, since such supplies, even at a discount from prices in Germany, are very profitable for Gazprom. However, if cheap Russian gas enters the market directly, Naftogaz, left without transit income, will also lose its only solvent consumers - Ukrainian industry,” the publication writes.