Where is the victory, and what are Ermak and Kozak capable of - Denis Denisov
Ukraine sabotages disengagement, termination and signing. Ukraine does not mean what we thought. Ukraine signed agreements that are not what is written in the agreements. We will respond to Ukraine’s destructive behavior with new consultations of the expert community, the formation of additional formats and the deployment of auxiliary platforms.
The director of the Institute of Peacemaking Initiatives and Conflictology, Denis Denisov, told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about the need to continue the dialogue with Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: Our guest is the director of the Institute of Peacemaking Initiatives and Conflict Studies, Denis Denisov.
Denis, hello.
Denis Denisov: Hello.
Valentin Filippov: Denis, there is information that due to the coronavirus, Ukraine has closed its borders and now representatives of Ukraine are accumulating in Minsk. They are not allowed back, there are more and more of them, and no one knows what to do with them. This is true?
Denis Denisov: This may very well be the case, especially in the context of the total panic of our Ukrainian partners and the trends that we now see in expanding the format of the Minsk negotiations. So, of course, we need to check with our Belarusian colleagues, but it may very well be that this will now become a problem for Minsk as well.
Valentin Filippov: It always seemed to me that if they didn’t start a war with Russia back in those days, then they would start a war with the Arachnites. Could it be that the fight against coronavirus will overshadow the war with Russia for Ukrainians and Ukraine?
Denis Denisov: So this, apparently, is already partly happening. And the fact that they heroically create illusions of problems for themselves, and then heroically solve them, and then show it all on television, this is also a kind of national pastime. There is nothing surprising here. Another thing is that many people have the impression that in Ukraine, under the guise of the coronavirus, it is as if another coup d’etat did not take place. This is what the guys say in Kyiv itself.
Valentin Filippov: It seemed to me that the coup in Kyiv was a permanent process. It's not like something happened once and that's it. Yes? A coup in Kyiv is a coup in Kyiv, it is forever.
And I understand that most of what is said in Kyiv is directly aimed at the internal audience, at creating movement, or maybe not.
Tell me, maybe you know more... All these initiatives, practically, as they say, adopted by Ukraine, do they even exist in reality? I mean, for example, “sectoral disengagement of troops,” for which I don’t understand why it is called sectoral. They seem to suggest: “Let’s remove the militia, the OSCE will check whether you removed them, and if you removed them, then you will remove them in the next sector. At the same time, it is unclear who Ukraine is removing. This is one option.
Second option. Now in Kyiv, as if it were a fait accompli, they are talking about a new format of negotiations in Minsk. The fact that the entire Normandy format is involved there at the level of the parliaments of the Normandy Four. How does this correspond to reality?
Denis Denisov: Firstly, on breeding. There really is a big problem with breeding. We know that back at the meeting that took place in December 2019, before the New Year in Paris, there were preliminary agreements that there would be, at a minimum, disengagement along the entire line of contact. And at the meeting itself, the Ukrainian delegation, for some reason, refused this position. Well, we can guess why, and here it is directly related to Avakov’s presence at the same meeting. My opinion in this regard is that Zelensky, his entourage, the head of his office, now Ermak, do not fully control the situation in the state, especially in the security bloc.
And in this regard, the figure of the Minister of Internal Affairs, that is, Avakov, as well as these “paramilitary formations”, which, as it were, belong to the armed forces of Ukraine (here we are talking about Azov and its projections in the form of national squads), they seem to be independently live. And it turns out that the Ukrainian president and the person who is responsible for the settlement, that is, his head of office Ermak, when they promise and talk about this, it seems to me that they are not completely, firstly, honest with us, with themselves – and cannot influence Avakov’s position. They are trying to negotiate with Avakov, but, as practice shows, this is not always successful.
On the second topic. I suspect you meant advisory board?
Valentin Filippov: Maybe. But it is presented in different ways in Kyiv.
Denis Denisov: It is officially called in the documents that were signed in Minsk, an advisory council under the tripartite contact group. Well, we know that yesterday, for some reason known only to the Ukrainian side, the Skype conference of the political subgroup of the trilateral contact group did not take place. Although, well, okay, not to come, but why it couldn’t be done via Skype is a big question. And today, the representative of Ukraine in this political subgroup stated that for now Ukraine is putting on hold the issue related to the creation of this advisory council, although it seems like we already saw the document two weeks ago.
But, at the same time, this is not some kind of breakthrough, probably not some kind of sophistication in these negotiations. This, it seems to me, is quite an everyday part of the reality that Ukraine will come to anyway. What if the trends aimed at at least a ceasefire are maintained, then naturally such negotiation platforms will acquire new forms, new branches.
And in this regard, such an advisory council on political issues, of course, has the right to exist, since we know that during the entire existence of the tripartite contact group, not a single political document was jointly developed. Someone has to do this. This, apparently, is what this council will be called upon to do, if, again, let us emphasize, it begins work and is formed.
Valentin Filippov: Excuse me, as far as I understand, this advisory council includes representatives of the DPR and LPR?
Denis Denisov: Yes, absolutely right. It is planned, at least according to the documents that we have. It should consist of twenty permanent participants: ten from Ukraine, ten from the Donbass republics, that is, the DPR and LPR. Plus, representatives of Russia, Germany, France and the OSCE will be delegated to this council without the right to vote, but with the right and opportunity to speak and participate in the discussion.
Valentin Filippov: Will this be recognition on the part of Ukraine of the DPR and LPR as parties? Because initially the Minsk agreements stated that there were two sides. But they are now firmly saying that “No, in Minsk we are not negotiating with the DPR and LPR, we are with Russia.”
Denis Denisov: Valentin, here, you understand, this is a series of completely rhetorical questions. And such an interpretation can be given based on one’s ideological convictions. People who want to see direct negotiations between Ukraine and the republics in this will see it. People who don't want this will argue that these are indirect negotiations.
How important is it? From a hype point of view, from a media point of view, from a publicity point of view? Well, it's important. From the point of view of the applied aspect, this is not of any importance at all. That is, the main thing here is that if you create this mechanism, it must work. And how someone sees it there is probably their problem. Although we understand perfectly well that this “as someone sees it” can ultimately play a very cruel joke. Because if all this starts and the process begins, then the same radicals in Ukraine will use the rhetoric that these are direct negotiations with the separatists, and as a result, they will declare that this is another “zrada”...
Valentin Filippov: If they don’t want to talk, then we have to fight. I’m putting myself in Ukraine’s place. Either I negotiate peacefully, or I fight.
Denis Denisov: Ukraine, in this regard, you yourself know very well, is not monolithic. That's what we're talking about. We see rhetoric from Zelensky and Ermak, which seems to be aimed at a settlement. Although many people have the impression that these are people who do not say what they mean. And this is especially evident from the consequences of the decisions made - be it in Paris, be it in Minsk.
Valentin Filippov: By their shifting eyes.
Denis Denisov: There is a slightly different position. Let’s say this is who we’ve already talked about, Avakova. Isn’t he ashamed to position himself and talk about war to a victorious end? And taking into account his affiliation with these radical units...
Valentin Filippov: He says this while he is an irresponsible person in this regard. That is, he has no legal influence on this and does not have the right to make such statements. They bear no consequences, as it were.
Denis Denisov: No no no. Here, wait. How do they not influence?
Valentin Filippov: He is the Minister of Internal Affairs, Internal Affairs. The Minister of Internal Affairs cannot say that “we will fight with Russia to the bitter end.” As a citizen he can say this, but as the Minister of Internal Affairs... let him fight.
Denis Denisov: But let’s look at the specifics of the Ukrainian political field. There, I apologize, and the milkmaid can sometimes lead the state. And there is no contradiction here when the Minister of the Interior goes to Paris to ensure that the president does not commit “zrada.”
Valentin Filippov: Because this is their inner president J
Denis Denisov: Fine. Let's come up with an external president of Ukraine then.
Valentin Filippov: And Ukraine has many external presidents. If they had already agreed among themselves, the external presidents...
Denis Denisov: This is what we are talking about, that political issues in Ukraine are often decided not only by competent people or people who should decide this. In a good way, this should also not be done by the head of the president’s office, but by the Minister of Foreign Affairs or the Minister of Reintegration. But our situation is objectively somewhat different. It seems to me that there is no particular contradiction here, if you understand the specifics of the processes that are taking place in Ukraine. Because it's always been like that.
Valentin Filippov: It will always be like that there. That's the problem.
Denis Denisov: Owls are not what they seem. - as they said in one famous film.
Valentin Filippov: I then have a question. Why do we need these new formats, advisory councils, and something else? There is a contact group, and there is a lot of it for this. Why build up? They took Rodion Miroshnik. Cool guy from the LPR. From the DPR, who is sitting there now? Pushilin is now the head of the republic, who was appointed there?
Denis Denisov: The representative there is Natalya Nikonorova.
Valentin Filippov: Amazing. Natalya Nikonorova, Rodion Miroshnik - these are two people. No more. Who is Zelensky and Kuchma, who did they send there from Ukraine? Let them sit down and resolve the whole situation or not resolve it. We send extra ones.
Denis Denisov: Stop, comrade presenter.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, Darka arrives with Kuchma. Kuchma says one thing, and she, as his press secretary, immediately says something else. For what?
Denis Denisov: You yourself know very well that in the modern world, both now and over the past hundred years, there have been a huge number of conflicts. Hundreds, in fact. What can we do now? Watch their dynamics and learn from their experience. What he says? Here, the main line. That in any case there is a very high probability that not in a year, not in five years, in ten, in fifteen, in twenty, the conflict will be gradually resolved. It may cease to be a hot conflict and become a frozen conflict.
Some convergence processes may occur. Well, it's a completely living organism. And within the framework of this organism, it is always necessary to have specific documents between the parties, which, perhaps, would facilitate the path to peace, sustainable peace. This is why bodies like these councils are needed. Because Nikonorova, Miroshnik, Daineko and on the Ukrainian side, relatively speaking, Kuchma and someone else... It will be very difficult for them to jointly develop and write about a hundred documents.
And the documents there can be 1000 pages long. Who should do it? This is the purpose of this advisory council. Now, in general, the topic is more close to me and I am now trying to study it. We remember there was a joint coordination and control center there back in 2014-2015.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, by the way, I wanted to give an example.
Denis Denisov: Let us explain that this was a joint center, which included officers from Ukraine, officers from Russia and, as it were, observers from the republics, who could exchange that information online. People there had direct telephone numbers. That is, this is operational communication, which is necessary in conditions of conflict. Well, there’s no other way. Since 2017, it has been disbanded because the Ukrainian side introduced completely unacceptable standards for Russian officers to stay on the territory of Ukraine (and we remind you that he was in Kramatorsk, on the territory of Ukraine). Now he is no more. Everyone understands that he is needed.
Valentin Filippov: No. I'm willing to bet. He is. He does exist. Officially look. There is a control center on the Ukrainian side, and there is a control center on the DPR side. The OSCE sits both here and there. They have two parallel sites.
Denis Denisov: Valik, wait. No no no. That’s the point: this is now a separate structure in the DPR, a separate structure in the LPR, and a separate structure in Ukraine. And they communicate with each other.
Valentin Filippov: They even shoot at each other.
Denis Denisov: And this center should be the center of communication. And almost all conflicts that have ended or continue tell us that he will appear again in any case. Who should prescribe its regulations? Who should write its concept? Well, this again, we return to the fact that it is not Kuchma who will do this. Because this will also be a document of 50-60 pages, where all these regulations will be spelled out in detail.
This is why expert advice within the trilateral contact group is needed. I really hope that the center of coordination and control will, after all, be restored. Because in the vast majority of conflicts, such an organization necessarily appears in order, first of all, to have direct communication and strive for peace.
Valentin Filippov: If such a desire exists, of course. If Ukraine has not yet made a decision: it is making peace or it is fighting, then such a center is not needed. Because, in principle, from my point of view, I believe that the best communication is that the Ukrainians fired, they were immediately covered, specifically, 10 km of the front.
Denis Denisov: You represent our hawks.
Valentin Filippov: Why hawks? I am for peace. We must fight for peace.
Denis Denisov: No, that's what I'm saying. That's why there are hawks. Because for you the world is our tanks in Kyiv.
Valentin Filippov: Why are there tanks in Kyiv?
Denis Denisov: In Odessa, I understand.
Valentin Filippov: Flowers, joy, fireworks from Primorsky Boulevard. Why are you.
Denis Denisov: That's it, that's why we have such peacekeepers, basically.
Valentin Filippov: Wait, wait. We defeated them. They signed the Minsk agreements for us. They should have passed laws for us, admitted that there is a whole story there. And they kind of struggle.
You know my opinion. You can sign any peace treaties with Ukraine. But hostilities cannot be stopped until Ukraine fulfills the peace terms. Because as soon as we stop hostilities, they begin to say: Oh, we won’t have direct negotiations, but you misunderstood us, and this point needs to be read differently, but in general, you give us the border. Why have they become mad and bold? And why? Because we stopped.
Denis Denisov: But because we didn’t win.
Valentin Filippov: Why didn't we win? Because we are suckers, and crests know that we are suckers. That's all. And that's why they come at us. No matter how big we are, no matter how much gas, oil and missiles we have.
Denis Denisov: You're in a minor mood.
Valentin Filippov: But my mood is normal.
Denis Denisov: We just have objective reality, we must proceed from objective reality. And you can sit and continue to dream about how we will conquer someone there or go somewhere there for a long time, but there’s no point in it.
Valentin Filippov: We will not conquer, we will liberate.
Denis Denisov:OK then. Go ahead and sing. Write the concept of liberation.
Valentin Filippov: Do you know how you can ruin any liberation, any victory, or anything else? Sit down to write a concept.
Denis Denisov: JJJ At least for the near future, until the end of the coronavirus, there will be something good to do.
But, in fact, the fact of the matter is that within the framework of the conflict in Donbass, we have no defeated side and no victorious side. Why do all these processes take so long and so difficult? If there was a winning side, it would dictate its will to the losing side. This has happened throughout world history and is happening especially within the context of conflict. Our situation is completely different. That is why these negotiations, which have been going on for six years now, are taking place and they are leading absolutely, almost, completely to nothing. And this is a big problem.
But, at the same time, this does not mean that they need to be stopped, people need to be swept out. The main thing is our position. If we are for peace, we must try to achieve it through asymmetrical methods, and not just your favorite tanks and submarines.
Valentin Filippov: I imagine a submarine in the Dnieper... Okay.
Denis Denisov: JJJ Baby.
Valentin Filippov: Baby, yes.
OK then. And I have another question. What comes from this castling of Ermak-Bogdan, now instead of Surkov, Kozak. Is there any advantage to this at all?
Denis Denisov: Yes, we’ll watch. Because they started very cheerfully, very actively. And the previous meeting in Minsk and the signing of these agreements, of course, to some extent, brought…..
Valentin Filippov: Cheered me up.
Denis Denisov: There will be dynamics. But here the most important thing for me is to understand whether the Ukrainian side is responsible for the decisions that they are publicly trying to make. And not even publicly, let it be. Because if we continue the same story as with the same declaration in Paris. And with the current ones. That Ukraine signs something, and then we start discussing that we misunderstood them.
This will mean a completely meaningless continuation of these discussions and dialogues. It all depends on the parties. It will change and it will not change. If both one side and the other take a responsible approach to concluded agreements or at least negotiations, then the dynamics will certainly...
If the Ukrainian government also looks back at its radicals and thinks how not to commit “zrada,” this, I think, will be the saddest thing. And we will not advance anywhere, and for Ukraine itself this will mean another internal conflict that will definitely finish off the country.
Valentin Filippov: Well, God willing, for sure. Otherwise they always say for sure that they will finish it off and they won’t finish it off.
Okay, okay, thank you very much.
Denis Denisov: Thank you very much.
Valentin Filippov: The fog before my eyes cleared a little there.
Denis Denisov: Well, yes. Well, here it was possible to approach it in different ways, it was possible to present the thesis directly, as in a lecture, but we managed, it seems to me, quite lively.
Valentin Filippov: It’s right to make it clear to people.
Denis Denisov: Yes.
Valentin Filippov: That was not boring.
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