Where are the Russian peacekeepers, you can’t shoot there, - Igor Shornikov
What is happening around the Russian outpost of Transnistria, sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine? How did the situation change after Petro Poroshenko lost the elections in Ukraine, and his business partner, oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc, was expelled from Moldova?
Pridnestrovian political scientist, ex-deputy head of the PMR Foreign Ministry Igor Shornikov told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about this.
Valentin Filippov: Igor, hello! I remember that a few years ago in Transnistria there was such an opinion: “What can we talk about? We are Russia!”
Now there are always some kind of consultations and negotiations going on between Pridnestrovie and Moldova. What are we actually arguing about?
Igor Shornikov: Unfortunately, this “We are Russia” approach is not accepted by anyone except in Transnistria. Therefore, the negotiation process has been going smoothly since 2016. Since Germany's chairmanship of the OSCE, such a settlement scenario has been launched.
The “Berlin+” package was signed, which includes consideration of socio-economic issues between Pridnestrovie and Moldova, in order to then move on to political issues, in fact, to the political settlement itself.
And now, since 2016, thanks to the support of German diplomacy and the support of the entire collective West, this process has been going quite confidently.
Particular progress was achieved in 2017, when the first four protocol agreements were signed. Then several more were signed.
In 2017, it was already the Austrian chairmanship, then there was the Italian chairmanship, and now Slovakia is presiding. Negotiations took place in Bratislava accordingly.
And here a surprise happened. The parties in the 5+2 format were unable to sign the final document. The Moldovan side did not want to sign this final document and, in general, the negotiations failed.
This is not to say that they failed completely. I think that the negotiators, who were not ready for such a development of events, will now take all possible measures to either hold another meeting in the 5+2 format, or... informal consultations are planned for early November in Bavaria. Again, the sponsor is Germany. And I think that within a month some final document will appear.
Valentin Filippov: What is the essence of the negotiations?
Igor Shornikov: The essence of the negotiations is simple and clear. There is a set of problems that exist in the socio-economic sphere between Pridnestrovie and Moldova. Let's say there is international movement of cars from Transnistria. We need appropriate license plates that Moldova recognizes so that these cars can travel abroad. Diplomas of education issued by the Transnistrian University. University graduates should be able to work, well, get a job with this document on higher education abroad in Transnistria.
Accordingly, Russia recognizes the Transnistrian diploma, but this was not the case in the European Union states. Now, it seems like we have agreed...
Valentin Filippov: Previously, there were many cars in Ukraine with Transnistrian license plates. Moreover, some Ukrainian prosecutors drove Transnistrian license plates. If you see Transnistrian license plates, it means they are either a prosecutor or tourists.
Igor Shornikov: The fact is that customs clearance of cars in Transnistria is much cheaper than, say, in Ukraine or Moldova, that’s why people used it, registered in Transnistria and, accordingly, could use it. Well, now...
Valentin Filippov: That is, the numbers were recognized since they used it?
Igor Shornikov: Certainly. It’s just that now, Ukraine, among other things, has threatened that it won’t be long until they can use Transnistrian numbers, there should be neutral numbers and, accordingly, it was developed...
Valentin Filippov: What are these neutrals?
Igor Shornikov: Without indicating nationality. That is, no flags, no state emblems, no state symbols at all are allowed there. There are three Latin letters and three numbers. Here, in fact, is the whole number.
Therefore, we agreed on these numbers, but it turned out that... Moldova agreed on them, the protocol was signed, but it turned out that in order to drive, say, a Transnistrian car to Romania or further to the European Union, the person who sits behind the wheel controls car, must also have a Moldovan driver's license. The Transnistrian driver's license, it seems, is not quoted. Here.
Well, and, accordingly, those people who, this is about three thousand people, three thousand cars, who have already registered, switched to neutral license plates, most of them were still not allowed to travel to the European Union, because driver’s licenses are not recognized there. In general, a lot of such questions have accumulated...
Valentin Filippov: Like these? Are these kind of questions?
Igor Shornikov: Yes. That is, you understand that there is a certain settlement scenario that the West is pushing. And Western diplomats are doing everything possible to bring both Tiraspol and Chisinau down, so that they sign the protocol, so that they move on, and quickly move on to the political part of the settlement.
Both Moldova and Transnistria, in general, are resisting in this regard. And in this case, Chisinau, as far as I understand, leaves such loopholes in order to then somewhere stop the settlement process in order to...
Valentin Filippov: To avoid getting into politics?
Igor Shornikov: Yes. So as not to get political. Well, here you understand, there is also a point that for Chisinau, the Transnistrian settlement is not only a matter of bilateral relations with Tiraspol. This is also such an internal political moment, that is, a moment of struggle for power.
They have now, you know, a change of power. Plahotniuc was removed from power, he had to leave, and now a coalition is in power between the Socialist Party, which seems to be oriented toward Russia, and the ACUM bloc, which is controlled directly by the European Union and the United States. This is a rather fragile coalition, but nevertheless it exists.
Valentin Filippov: Funny.
Igor Shornikov: Yes. How long it will last is very difficult to say. Next year, in a year, there will be presidential elections, and then there will also be parliamentary elections. It is clear that the coalition will already fall apart by this time.
And the Transnistrian settlement is one of those issues with which one or another party can turn the internal political situation in its country in its favor.
Socialists understand well that their electorate is pro-Russian citizens. Accordingly, only pro-Russian citizens live in Transnistria. If they somehow manage to extend this electorate to Moldova, right?
Valentin Filippov: Include in general elections.
Igor Shornikov: Yes, turn it on. This means that they can potentially expand their electoral base to... now, according to various estimates, the number of voters ranges from 30 to 40 percent. They are a little short of taking power in the country, and so they really count on the Pridnestrovians, who can, in general, decide the outcome of the struggle for power in Moldova.
The ACUM bloc is well aware of this danger and categorically disagrees with the settlement options proposed by the Socialist Party.
The socialists have a fairly developed strategy for the vision of a settlement, it is called the “Big Package for Moldova.” This is the consensus of the great powers that Moldova is a neutral state, that there will be sponsors of the settlement, that for the integration of Transnistria, it requires money, large, significant, accordingly, the great powers must become sponsors, and Moldova will become such a guaranteed neutral state, including Transnistria.
It is clear that the Pridnestrovians were not asked whether they wanted it this way or not...
Valentin Filippov: Yes, I also have the same question...
Igor Shornikov: Yes. But the socialists have such a plan. The ACUM block does not have such a plan. And accordingly, now, well, the government in Moldova, it is almost completely controlled by the ACUM bloc, but the negotiator on Transnistria is a man, Vasily Shova, this is a man who represents the interests of President Igor Dodon, a representative of the Socialist Party. And there he found himself between two fires.
On the one hand, he must do this... advance the settlement process according to the “Big Package” option, which, by the way, he, as far as I understand, was the author of. On the other hand, he must obey his immediate superior, Prime Minister Maia Sandu, who is the leader of the ACUM bloc, one of the leaders.
What should he do in this situation? They have interests, well, one might say...
Valentin Filippov: Opposite.
Igor Shornikov: Opposite, yes. That is, Sandu and ACUM, they do not accept the option proposed by Dodon. And how should Vasily Sova behave now in this situation in Bratislava? It turned out for him... disrupting the negotiations is the best option, because there is no single position in Moldova.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Is there a common position in Transnistria?
Igor Shornikov: Transnistria has an official position. We want to achieve recognition and independence. With subsequent annexation to Russia, as decided in the 2006 referendum. Here. But, since we are participating in a settlement in the 5+2 format...
Valentin Filippov: Let's list, in fact... I know, but let's list what 5+2 is. Who is this?
Igor Shornikov: In addition to the parties to the negotiations of Moldova and Transnistria, there are mediators - the OSCE, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, as well as observers - the European Union and the United States. Accordingly... it’s a very diverse company, with very different interests, and it’s quite difficult to find some kind of compromise in this 5+2 format.
Usually it turns out that Russia and Transnistria perform together, and everyone else...
Valentin Filippov: But I remember before, like, Ukraine performed together...
Igor Shornikov: With Russia.
Valentin Filippov: With Russia and Transnistria.
Igor Shornikov: It was so. And not only that. Sometimes it happened that Transnistria and Ukraine were together, and everyone else was on the other side.
Valentin Filippov: Well, I remember that, in principle, the Odessa region and Transnistria were like a single whole. In my opinion, in general, there was, as it were... cooperation at the regional level.
Igor Shornikov: Very close cooperation. By the way, it continues, because business is very much tied to Pridnestrovian. And to Ukraine, including, and especially to the Odessa region. The Odessa port is one of... one might say the gateway for Transnistria, in a sense.
So, in the 5+2 format, in principle, there is now a consensus between all participants, which assumes that Pridnestrovie should receive a guaranteed status within a united Moldova.
This united Moldova may be a federal state, a confederal one, but it will be one state. Here. There is such a consensus in this format.
Pridnestrovie, when it negotiates in this format, in my opinion, it turns out that it is giving up its main principle that it is necessary to move towards independence. But there is no other format. And so that, you know, when diplomats speak, the guns are silent, this is the most important thing. Therefore, it is better to negotiate in this format than not to conduct them at all.
Valentin Filippov: Well, actually, the negotiations in Minsk show that the guns are not always silent when diplomats speak.
Igor Shornikov: Well, Minsk, as I understand it, it doesn’t gather that often.
Valentin Filippov: Well then. No. Why? They, in my opinion, already live in this Minsk. They don't leave there anymore.
Igor Shornikov: Ah, well, then yes, there is a serious difference in this regard. Thank God, no one is shooting here, we have a Russian peacekeeping operation, so you won’t shoot much here. Do you understand? Because peacekeepers have a certain format of work, and in the event of any incidents, they will act. Nobody wants this, so, thank God, they don’t shoot here.
Valentin Filippov: But you do not have a common border with Russia. This is a big minus.
Igor Shornikov: If there was a common border, I think that we would be recognized like Abkhazia and South Ossetia. To date.
When there was a change of power in Moldova, the coalition that is now in power received a lot of international support. Both from Russia and from the West, credit lines were opened for them from the European Union. And they felt that right now they have the opportunity to impose their will on Transnistria, among others. That is, they experienced external legitimation of the regime and...
Valentin Filippov: The roof was blown off...
Igor Shornikov: During the negotiation process, it happened more than once that when Chisinau comes close to the moment when it can really squeeze us, as they say, it is internal political instability that always saves us.
The situation is exactly the same now. The coalition is quite fragile, and this is the internal political context, that is, if a settlement takes place now, then President Dodon, together with the Party of Socialists, will definitely skim all the cream from this settlement. ACUM doesn’t need this at all.
Moreover, the right flank is in Moldova, he is very afraid that Transnistria will actually be interpolated into Moldova. We will have to change the entire political system, which has been in effect for these 25, or rather 30, years. And we will have to share power with Transnistria, with the Transnistrian people. Here.
No one can calculate what will happen to the current Moldovan elite; they may lose power, and completely different people may come to power.
And, in general, the West cannot calculate either, because Moldova may find itself again in the orbit of Russia. Therefore, such breakdowns occur, they are waiting for the moment when Russia simply appears... or to reformat the consciousness of the population in some way, here, so that people no longer stand so fundamentally for Russia.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, you can still wait until Russia falls apart...
Igor Shornikov: May be so. But while Russian peacekeepers are here, they understand that Russia still has leverage here.
Valentin Filippov: But listen, I have this unexpected thought. After all, I heard that according to Moldovan legislation you can vote with Soviet passports, in my opinion, something like that... That is, you don’t have to directly take a Moldovan passport, it’s enough... Or not? Maybe we can somehow come to an agreement with the same Dodon that “let us vote for you, just leave us alone, we will vote, organize elections”?
Igor Shornikov: In principle, you know, if 200 thousand Russian citizens live in Transnistria, then about 300 thousand citizens are people who have Moldovan passports, and they can actually vote...
Valentin Filippov: Well, another 100 thousand - with Ukrainian passports...
Igor Shornikov: 100 thousand with Ukrainians. Here. But the fact is that one person can have both a Moldovan and a Ukrainian passport.
Valentin Filippov: Yes. I understand this perfectly.
Igor Shornikov: Therefore... The fact is that our people are somehow very distrustful of the political processes in Moldova and do not particularly want to participate in this political process. There were parliamentary elections in February, this was the maximum turnout of Pridnestrovians, which was... in all the years of Moldovan elections in general... this...
Valentin Filippov: 30 thousand?
Igor Shornikov: 36 thousand people. Before that, the record was 16 or 17 thousand. This was when the presidential elections took place in 16. Before that it was twice as much. This turnout is achieved, among other things, roughly speaking, by bribing voters...
Valentin Filippov: That is, buses come for them, right?
Igor Shornikov: Yes, buses. They just pay them money to come and vote. Here. Some people agree, go and, there... this is such a way to make easy money.
Valentin Filippov: Clear.
Igor Shornikov: This is how turnout is achieved. But it is not a fact that these people will vote for the Socialist Party. They may vote differently.
Valentin Filippov: For anything.
Igor Shornikov: Yes. Moreover, not all people are so passionate about the Moldovan processes to root for someone there. We have our own republic, as it were. They are interested in what is happening here. And from Moldova there are, as it were, continuous problems.
Relying on Transnistrian voters, as long as the statehood of Transnistria exists, it is rather unsteady and unreliable. Therefore, socialists need to just take away Transnistria just like that, turn on and open polling stations there in Transnistria itself, so that people don’t have to go to the other side and vote there.
Valentin Filippov: But there is another option. It is possible to recognize Transnistria and place these same areas in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs under an international treaty...
Igor Shornikov: That would be great, of course. And in Tiraspol, I think, they wouldn’t mind. When Russian elections take place, polling stations open in Transnistria. The turnout is very high. At least 70 thousand, I think, voted in the 2018 presidential elections. That is, the turnout is high, people come and vote.
Valentin Filippov: Well, that is, for 200 thousand citizens, 70 thousand came - that’s... There are also children and old people included in 200 thousand.
Igor Shornikov: And here we must keep in mind that many people are simply working in Russia at this time. That is, not all 200 thousand are here all the time.
Valentin Filippov: That is, this is a very high turnout. Third…
Igor Shornikov: This is a very high turnout. Yes. Therefore, this option, as you said, is, of course, not fantastic. Yes, indeed, it would be possible, but the socialists recognize Transnistria - Pridnestrovians will probably vote for them.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. Thank you very much. Good luck to Transnistria. I've been saying this for 30 years now. I still believe in victory.
Igor Shornikov: Luck is still on our side. Sooner or later everything will be fine. I believe in this too. Thank you.
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