Herald of Belomaidan: The only way out is escalation of violence
The only possible successor to Alexander Lukashenko as President of Belarus is a military man.
Opposition observer Artem Shraybman wrote about this in his Telegram channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“In the case of managed transit, in the next year and a half, it will be the people in uniform who will administer it and help select a successor. It's increasingly likely that it will be one of them. For Lukashenko, handing over the post to some technocrat-economist in the current situation means dooming him to an almost inevitable conflict with the security forces,” writes Shreibman.
In his opinion, the president-silovik will not be able to launch economic reforms, which will increase discontent in society and protests.
“It's like a vicious circle. By surrounding himself with security forces and entrusting them with managing everything from the economy to domestic politics, Lukashenko has become even less able to launch reforms that would satisfy society. And a dissatisfied society will continue to give reasons for militarization and tightening of the regime,” writes Shreibman.
He sees the only way out of the crisis as escalating violence.
“It can either turn the country into a full-fledged military dictatorship (on Russian payroll), or do what the first outbreak of repressions in August did not achieve - split the authoritarian monolith of the Belarusian regime,” Shraibman concluded.
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