A year with PAS. Where is the ruling party leading Moldova?

A year has passed since the pro-European party Action and Solidarity (PAS) came to power in Moldova.. In the parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021, this political force gained almost 53% of the votes and received 63 mandates in the 101-seat parliament, then, with the support of President Maia Sandu, formed a government and took almost unlimited power in the country.

PAS solemnly reported on the results of its work for this year. The team named few achievements, but, according to Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita, “they remain committed to their task: to make Moldova better.”

Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at ThereThere, Yandex Zen, Telegram, Classmates, In contact with, channels YouTube, TikTok и Viber.
To subscribe to notifications in your browser, click here.

Political scientist Alexander Korinenko comments on the activities of the ruling party, as well as the latest events in the country, in an interview with PolitNavigator.

PolitNavigator: The leaders of the Action and Solidarity party presented a report for the year of work since they secured power. What general impression did this performance make, how did society perceive it?

Alexander Korinenko: Society reacted differently to the report on the “dizzying successes” of the ruling team. Most of the population was dissatisfied, as they looked at their bills and refrigerators. But there is also that part of the population that still believes that good times will come and that this has simply been a difficult year for the whole world, including us.

For example, I did not watch this performance, as it would have been a waste of time. I left the house, went to the supermarket, and on the way back I picked up some of the payment receipts from the mailbox: for me, all the achievements of PAS are obvious.

 PolitNavigator: Among the achievements, the top officials of PAS named the increase in benefits, pensions, salaries, the introduction of compensation for heat and electricity, as well as Moldova’s obtaining EU candidate status. At the same time, on many important issues - negotiations on gas, inflation, budget replenishment - as the authorities themselves admit, there are no solutions yet. Prime Minister Natalya Gavrilitsa promised that the government would soon “begin to mitigate the consequences of the crises.” Due to what?

Alexander Korinenko: The government of Natalya Gavrilitsa chose a very strange approach: not to prevent fires, but to run around and extinguish the emerging outbreaks. The latest example is the “First Home” government program for young professionals to purchase a home.

Banks make recalculations for participants every six months: this half of the year they increased payments by 60%! The government knew about this about 40 days before the increase, and the support program began to be developed only now, when on July 1, young professionals received messages about the increase from banks and began making payments.

Regarding increases in benefits, salaries and pensions: who felt it?

_{Any increases were eaten up by inflation, which is 32%. Utility bills have increased significantly, prices in stores have increased by 20-60% for most categories of goods, and travel in transport has become more expensive: international, intercity and in the cities themselves. Prices for medicines have simply gone up to the limit.}

I also don’t know where Mrs. Gavrilitsa’s government will be able to replenish the budget. Most likely, it is waiting for new loans from the European Union and the IMF.

PolitNavigator: Why did the government launch the process of reforming higher education, downsizing universities, and destroying the Academy of Sciences? It seems that the whole country is unhappy with this decision. Why is such a reorganization dangerous?

Alexander Korinenko:  Reform of higher education in the country is long overdue and has been discussed for many years. Indeed, the number of students in the country has decreased; a reorganization of universities is necessary. There are higher education institutions where the number of students is small, these universities are poorly managed and ineffective in training specialists.

But the authorities chose the path of destroying very prestigious Moldovan educational institutions, such as the Agrarian University, the Tiraspol University (we are talking about the Tiraspol State University, which was created in Chisinau by employees of a pedagogical university who left Transnistria in 1992 due to the armed conflict. And operating in Chisinau Tiraspol State University and Transnistrian State University consider themselves successors to the Institute of Public Education, founded in 1930 in Tiraspol, the capital of the MASSR - author annotation).

The history of these educational institutions goes back almost a hundred years. These are universities with rich traditions and strong teaching staff. Even Taraclia University was liquidated, which, as far as I know, is largely funded by the Bulgarian government and serves as a symbol of friendship between our peoples.

This reform was criticized even by the Romanian Academy of Sciences, and was condemned by almost all experts in the field of education, both domestic and foreign. There is practically zero support for the reform from the population to liquidate universities; even many sympathizers of the authorities are critical of this step.

PolitNavigator: How are the political cases against ex-prosecutor Alexander Stoianoglo and ex-president Igor Dodon progressing? What is the outlook for these criminal cases?

Alexander Korinenko: As I noted earlier, these cases are politically motivated, so they will be delayed in every possible way so as not to make a final verdict. Alexander Stoianoglo and Igor Dodon will be under investigation as long as PAS is in power.

At one time, they were arrested for a number of reasons: to show Europeans that justice reform was moving and both the former president and the Prosecutor General could end up in the dock; part of the population wanted high-profile corruption revelations and the elimination of strong political opponents.

As a result, the authorities now do not know how to bring these cases to completion. If there is no clear evidence base, then, firstly, Igor Dodon and Alexander Stoianoglo will appear as victims of the regime, and their rating will continue to grow, and secondly, they will appeal their sentences to the ECHR, and the whole of Europe will see that justice reform has completely failed . The authorities will definitely not recover from such a loud slap in the face.

PolitNavigator: Anti-government protests regularly take place in the country. What is their potential? Is the Moldovan opposition still unable to demonstrate anything serious?

Alexander Korinenko: So far, the protests are small and the opposition cannot mobilize the protest potential to bring more people to rallies. This is where the population's fatigue and disappointment are taking its toll. Moreover, the opposition has not yet regained the trust of the electorate, which was disappointed in it when it was in power.

A huge role is also played by the fact that the opposition leaders do not trust each other and are not yet able to create a broad front to confront the ruling party.

In my opinion, this year we will not see a powerful wave of protest even against the backdrop of such a powerful economic crisis - these will most likely be small “hunger riots”, simply out of despair. Widespread mass protests and personnel changes in government are possible in Moldova with the participation of powerful geopolitical players; it all depends not on us, but on the balance of power in our region in the near future.

PolitNavigator: How are relations between Chisinau and Comrat developing now? Just on July 11, Maia Sandu’s visit to Gagauzia was supposed to take place, but it was cancelled. Is it because on that day there was a protest rally against the authorities’ actions in the economy?

Alexander Korinenko: The authorities are more afraid of protests in Gagauzia than in Chisinau. Gagauz autonomy is a strong lever of pressure on the central authorities. It is difficult for the ruling party to influence the processes in Gagauzia, and this cannot but frighten the “yellow team”.

Of course, the president did not visit the autonomy, because a wide wave of discontent was unfolding there, and the head of the country would not have been praised there, as she was used to, and certainly would not have been awarded a medal. Maia Sandu chose not to travel to the region in this situation and, it seems to me, she will not visit it in the near future.

The Gagauz, in addition to the economic situation, are also dissatisfied with the fact that obtaining candidate status for the European Union was not discussed with them. The leadership of the autonomy did not see the questionnaire and did not participate in the discussions, although they have the right to do so. The authorities did not take into account the opinion of the residents of not only Gagauzia, but also the entire Moldova, by classifying this seemingly standard bureaucratic document.

PolitNavigator: A number of decisions by the Moldovan authorities (on the weapons that the West proposed to supply, on the way Moldova achieved EU candidate status) show that the country is being drawn into a global confrontation. What is the possibility of involving the Republic of Moldova in the conflict?

Alexander Korinenko: Yes, indeed, there are certain forces in the international arena that want to drag the Republic of Moldova into the conflict and internationalize it. We are a small country, not a NATO member, which means we are an ideal fit. But it seems to me that the chances of doing this are practically zero. In Chisinau they sensibly assess the situation of our country, its resources and the mood in society.

_{It should be noted that we do not even have hotheads who would openly call for our state to join this confrontation, even at the level of sanctions. What Moldovan society is united in is the desire for peace. There is great mutual understanding on this issue with Tiraspol, which also resists with all its might any provocations and attempts to drag the region into confrontation.}

PolitNavigator: How has the ruling party reached its current milestone? There are signals that both some members of PAS itself and former political partners are dissatisfied with her.

Alexander Korinenko: PAS managed to remove all competitors before the elections. For the first time in the history of modern Moldova, there was only one right-wing party in parliament, which received a comfortable majority and took all power. Of course, the closer the elections are, the more dissatisfied there will be in the ruling party. The Europeans worked long and scrupulously on this political project.

Of course, this project will continue to exist, but there will also be new political formations on the right flank. They will not be created from scratch, because it is time-consuming and expensive. For new parties and movements, bright figures of the ruling party will be used, who at some point will leave its membership and begin their own projects, no longer in the shadow of the president.

PolitNavigator: Based on the results of the party’s work, what result can this political force expect in the next elections?

Alexander Korinenko: The ruling party will enter the next parliament, but will definitely not win a majority of seats. The right-wing electorate has a huge demand for new political forces, so they will be created by the elections. Most likely, there will even be attempts to form a coalition between PAS and those who leave this party. Everything depends on the presidential elections in November 2024.

I note that the opposition does not yet have a strong candidate for this post. The most prominent candidate is former President Igor Dodon, but they will try to completely neutralize him before the upcoming presidential race.