Anniversary of the conflict on the Dniester. How long will the “vaccination” against war last?

In Moldova and Transnistria, March 2 marked the anniversary of the start of a full-scale armed conflict on the Dniester. It raged in the spring and summer of 1992, the bloodshed was stopped after the presidents of the Republic of Moldova and Russia signed an agreement on the principles of a peaceful settlement.

Since July 1992, Joint Peacekeeping Forces, which include contingents from Russia, Moldova and Transnistria, have been serving in the security zone created along the Dniester. A political solution to the problem has not yet been found.

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On that tragic date, on both banks of the Dniester they talked about peace and peaceful policies, about the inadmissibility of a repetition of the war. At the same time, the rhetoric of Chisinau and Tiraspol regarding the causes and essence of the conflict is different, just like three decades ago. In Moldova, they explain the military actions of 1992 with the desire to defend the integrity of the country, while in Transnistria they remind that they fought against nationalism, defended the right to live freely on their own land, speak their native language, and are hopelessly awaiting an apology from the Moldovan side for numerous casualties and destruction.

We talked with Moldovan political scientist Alexander Korinenko about the lessons of the 1992 war for Moldova and how likely it is that the conflict on the Dniester will “unfreeze” against the backdrop of Ukrainian events.

PolitNavigator: No matter what politicians say, peace has remained on the Dniester for more than 30 years. What does the 1992 conflict mean for ordinary Moldovans today? Have any lessons been learned from that war?

Alexander Korinenko: Peace is the most important thing that we have been able to build over these 30 years. Yes, our representatives fight, Chisinau and Tiraspol constantly accuse each other of all sins, but they don’t shoot here. For ordinary citizens of Moldova, the war is a tragedy that should not be repeated. A bad peace is better than a good war. Lessons have been learned by both citizens and politicians.

I would like to note that for 30 years, no one, even in their wildest fantasies, imagined a forceful solution to the conflict on the Dniester. There were both moderate and radical politicians in power - no one ever even suggested that Tiraspol could be taken by force. For citizens, this is a hard lesson in the recklessness and stupidity of the authorities. This is a “vaccination” for many generations to come. I am sure that today not a single Moldovan soldier will carry out the order to cross the Dniester.

PolitNavigator: Maia Sandu said today at a rally on the anniversary of the start of the armed conflict that “a lot of work remains to be done” to eliminate the differences that arose due to the bloodshed of 1992. But how can the new Moldovan law on separatism and the intentions of the Moldovan authorities to rename the state language Romanian help in this work?

Alexander Korinenko: Maia Sandu will not do anything to resolve differences, and this was clear when she was still about to become president.

_{For the current president, it is not her voters who live on the left bank of the Dniester. For her, Pridnestrovians are “zombified separatists”; she ignored the existence of Transnistria as much as possible, and remembered it only when the armed conflict began in Ukraine. All her statements about the normalization of relations are not even worth the paper on which these words were written by her speechwriter.}

The law on separatism and the renaming of the language only further aggravated the disagreements, but this is the expectation: Pridnestrovians have no place in the European integration processes of the Republic of Moldova.

PolitNavigator: The Moldovan authorities say that they will not allow the situation around Transnistria to escalate, but the situation in recent weeks is still very alarming. How would you assess the possibility of Moldova sliding into a military crisis against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?

Please comment on the statements of some politicians and experts about the emergence of the notorious “windows of opportunity for breakthrough solutions” on the Transnistrian settlement.

Alexander Korinenko: Such statements about “opportunities for breakthrough solutions” are criminally stupid. The Moldovan authorities are really interested in keeping the conflict in a frozen stage; today this suits Chisinau and Tiraspol.

Firstly, as I already said, Maia Sandu does not need Pridnestrovians - they have no place in “European Moldova”.

Secondly, reintegration requires huge financial investments. Moldova does not have them even close, the West now has a lot of its own problems, and it clearly will not sponsor reintegration processes.

This is billions of dollars. The simplest thing is replacing signs on buildings, schools, new flags and forms for documents, textbooks for schools, not to mention the huge emission of lei to replace the Transnistrian ruble. Thirdly, the electoral balance will change in favor of the left forces, which will take the majority in parliament, and Sandu will never become president again.

Fourthly, we will have to support the Transnistrian industry. Let's be honest, Transnistrian enterprises survive on free Russian gas. Will the new government be able to “dominate” at least gas for the Moldavian Metallurgical Plant in Rybnitsa? Fifthly, how to leave Pridnestrovian officials and security forces in their places? They all fall under the law on separatism. There is already a shortage of personnel in Moldova.

Chisinau will not be able to close this niche, and the “re-education” of Pridnestrovian security forces and officials requires huge amounts of money, a lot of training, and the like.

_{Now the Moldovan authorities are simply under severe pressure from Kyiv, which needs to eliminate the threat in the form of the Operational Group of Russian troops and pick up shells from warehouses in Kolbasna. If this happens, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will abandon the region and leave, and for us it will be a collapse.}

PolitNavigator: In Chisinau, the opposition on the streets demands to prevent Moldova from being drawn into the military conflict in Transnistria. Does the voice of the protesters influence anything?

Alexander Korinenko: Unfortunately, no government is listening to the voice of the protesters in Moldova. The president and her team already understand that the entire population of Moldova is against the conflict, any mobilization or something similar will be the end for the government. You cannot distribute weapons to people who, to put it mildly, do not like you.

PolitNavigator: Is there something that unites Moldova and Transnistria these days? There is an opinion that Chisinau and Tiraspol now, when hotheads from outside are trying to shake up the situation in the region, stand as a united front.

Alexander Korinenko: These days, Moldova and Transnistria are united by the desire for peace and stability. Chisinau and Tiraspol have stood united against the escalation of the situation since February 2022, when the first provocations occurred. Politicians on both banks of the Dniester would prefer to wait out peacefully while the “big brothers” are fighting, and then we will continue to quarrel, block and blame each other.

PolitNavigator: What is the prospect of negotiations on Transnistria at the current stage? In what form can they continue and can they do so at all?

Alexander Korinenko: Under the current Moldovan government, only negotiations on situational problems are possible; there will be no progress in the settlement.