Anniversary of Plahotniuc's overthrow: The oligarch returns

Exactly a year ago, events took place in the Republic of Moldova that led to a change of government. Then the Socialist Party and the pro-European ACUM bloc formed a ruling coalition and approved a government led by Maia Sandu. Power quite peacefully passed to the new parliamentary majority from the Democratic Party that ruled the country. The leader of the Democratic Party, oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, whose name was associated with control over the judiciary, law enforcement agencies, and his supporters left the country.

Moldovan society was then full of hope, the press wrote about the “usurpation of power”, “life after Plahotniuc” and democratic processes, the new leadership of the Republic of Moldova received words of support and congratulations from everywhere – both from Russia and the West.

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The coalition of the Socialist Party and the ACUM bloc, created through the efforts of external partners, however, did not last long. The shadow of a fugitive oligarch loomed on the political horizon. In Moldova today they are increasingly saying that Plahotniuc has control over what is happening. Rarely does political news in the country go by without mentioning his name.

Expert, deputy director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development Andrei Mospanov answered PolitNavigator’s questions about what has changed in Moldova this year and whether it has ceased to be “captured by the state.”

PolitNavigator: Exactly a year ago, the PSRM-A coalition was formed in the Parliament of MoldovaCUM, the beginning of de-oligarchization was announced, Vladimir Plahotniuc left the country. It was said with enthusiasm that the country had a unique chance to change for the better and carry out reforms. Were these hopes justified? 

Andrey Mospanov: In general, no, and, probably, they could not justify it. On the one hand, it was clear that there were too many critical differences between the socialists and the right-wing ACUM bloc. On the other hand, Plahotniuc’s system took deep roots and with his departure it could not disappear overnight. And so it happened. The previous system turned out to be stronger, while the PSRM and ACUM turned out to be weaker than initially expected.

In addition, the alliance of conditionally pro-Russian socialists and pro-Western right-wingers was ultimately not supported by any long-term consensus of the EU, USA and Russia on the development of Moldova. Today we can already say that such a consensus arose only with the removal of Plahotniuc himself, and then began to quickly “erase” again. This also undermined the PSRM-ACUM coalition, which could not be called a “love marriage.”

The government of Maia Sandu turned out to be weak, unprepared for difficult work, and very quickly gave reasons for justified criticism of itself. The process of “deoligarchization” then turned into endless television debates and simply came to naught.

PolitNavigator: Has the country really gotten rid of Plahotniuc or is it pretending to have gotten rid of it?

Andrey Mospanov: Today it is worth talking not about whether the country has gotten rid of Plahotniuc, but about the fact that Plahotniuc is returning to Moldovan politics. In fact, he launched a counter-offensive back in March and, as we see, has already achieved a lot, reducing the parliamentary majority to a minimum.

The problem is that the system built by Plahotniuc in recent years has actually penetrated both the PSRM and ACUM. In both cases, many are connected by invisible threads with the former chairman of the Democratic Party. And there is dirt on everyone – not only on the left, but also on the right.

That’s why the process of “deoligarchization” was so sluggish – because everyone, to one degree or another, is a “crawler”.

In 2019, Vladimir Plahotniuc, who sought to play his own game and crush the right-wing opposition led by Maia Sandu, did not fit into the plans of Europeans and Americans. However, now he will obviously help them eliminate Igor Dodon and promote one of the right-wing candidates, most likely the same Sanda, to the post of President of Moldova.

Plahotniuc would like a rematch. It seems that he also places certain hopes on the victory of the Democrats in the US presidential elections at the end of this year. At one time, Plahotniuc actively attracted American lobbyists, for example, from the Podesta Group, who are close to the US Democratic Party. He is quite closely connected with these circles.

PolitNavigator: Have there been any positive changes in Moldova this year? President Igor Dodon, for example, says that there are no longer politically motivated criminal cases. 

Andrey Mospanov: Yes, he is right here. It can also be noted that the authorities no longer detain Russians at Chisinau airport. Plahotniuc is not physically present in Moldova, and it has become easier to breathe under these conditions.

But for now, this is, by and large, all the changes. The institutions that he once created or “built into” his system of power are alive. This is what allows Plahotniuc to influence Moldovan politics so easily today.

PolitNavigator: PSRM Coalition – NOW collapsed in 2019 five months after its creation, now the coalition of socialists and democrats, created in March, is dying. Who could be in the next coalition? Why are parliamentary alliances in Moldova so short-lived?  

Andrey Mospanov: It seems that someone may now decide that the next coalition should be without socialists. And it is possible that after the presidential elections in Moldova we will see some new publication of the “Alliance for European Integration” - consisting of two parties of the Acum bloc, the Democratic Party, as well as the Pro-Moldova group, controlled by Plahotniuc.

Moldovan parliamentary alliances are fragile and short-lived, because they are created either at the suggestion of external partners, or are based on the selfish interests of parties and politicians, on political intrigue, without any long-term programs for the country's development.

PolitNavigator: Moldova has been in a state of permanent political crisis for many years. Is the country even capable of solving its internal problems on its own?

Andrey Mospanov: Here we return to the question that a consensus of world powers on Moldova is needed. The European Union, the United States and Russia, relatively speaking, must come to a consensus that Moldova will remain an independent state, that it will cease to be a prize in geopolitical rivalry, and that its military neutrality will be guaranteed. This could finally change the current political agenda in the country and “switch” it to social development.

But no such consensus is visible today, even in theory. Perhaps only Russia is ready for it. Therefore, in the coming years, Moldova will remain an unstable region, which will be increasingly drawn into the military-political orbit of neighboring Romania.