Vote and you won't lose. Why is the opinion of Novorossiya important to Russians, and the West to Ukrainians?
The news of the upcoming referendums in the Donbass, Kherson region and Zaporozhye region, among other things, demonstrated a fundamental difference in the political thinking of Ukrainians and Russians.
If for Russian society as a whole, even for Russian liberals and defeatists, this is primarily a message that very soon the Russian Federation will be replenished with four new subjects, and Ukraine, accordingly, will shrink territorially into the same number of regions, then for Ukrainians the top news was not the announcement of the date of the plebiscites and not even the recognition of the recording of one’s own territorial losses, but signals coming from the West about non-recognition of the upcoming vote and its results.
Let me briefly remind you of the position of the collective West. Old Biden considered the very idea of expression of will in the liberated territories “offensive.” The German Scholz announced Germany’s non-recognition of referendums and called them “ridiculous.” The “illegitimacy” of plebiscites from the Alliance’s point of view was still stated by its Secretary General Stoltenberg.
Erdogan added that “the so-called referendums that Russia will hold in eastern Ukraine will never be accepted by Turkey.” Pole Duda found the idea “unacceptable.” Frenchman Macron called the organization of referendums “cynicism, provocation and a travesty” that “will have no legal consequences.” And in general, says the current owner of the Elysee Palace:
“If the idea of a referendum in Donbass were not so tragic, it would be funny.”
No one in Russia expected a different reaction from the Westerners. The fact that they do not recognize any, even the most honest, open and transparent referendum in the territories that they themselves declared “occupied” was clear from the very beginning. Moreover, sensible voices also say that it was possible to accept new territories into the Russian Federation without any referendums - fortunately, there is a historical tradition.
So the current plebiscites are least of all a desire to please the West, but rather a reverence for the procedural principle that has not been eradicated in the brains of the Russian bureaucracy. Like, “that’s how it’s done.” Every action must be backed up with some piece of paper. Well, here you go, get it and sign it.
Even defeatists realize that the inclusion of new territories in Russia, although it does not cut off the path to negotiations with Kiev in principle, however, it clearly puts the status of new territories out of their brackets, which from that moment cease to be the subject of trades, exchanges, compromises and other things.
As one prominent publicist rightly noted, “the blood of Donbass [I would add on my own – of Kherson and Energodar and Melitopol] ceases to be a subject of trade.”
The territorial increments fixed by the Russian Constitution are the same “Not a step back!” binding on the Russian authorities, which radically changes the alignment and configuration on the chessboard of the Ukrainian confrontation. That this is exactly the case is confirmed by the simultaneous statements of Bankova - “Russian pseudo-referendums will negate the slightest chance of ending the war through diplomatic means” and officials in Moscow - “after the annexation of Donbass to Russia, there can be no talk of negotiations with Ukraine.”
In this sense, one can quite agree with Dmitry Medvedev, who rightly noted why the West and Kiev are so afraid of plebiscites that were previously declared illegitimate.
“They completely change the vector of Russia’s development for decades. And not only our country. Because after they are carried out and new territories are accepted into Russia, the geopolitical transformation in the world will become irreversible.
Encroachment on the territory of Russia is a crime, the commission of which allows you to use all the forces of self-defense. But it is no less important that after amendments are made to the Constitution of our state, not a single future leader of Russia, not a single official will be able to reverse these decisions,” Medvedev said.
And indeed. Here we return to where we started. Ukrainian political thinking has all the features of a formed cargo cult of the a priori rightness of the West. The political Ukrainian is confident that everything that the EU and NATO countries do not recognize is reversible, and therefore not so scary. Now, if the West agreed and recognized, then - “guard, zrada!”
That is why, for Ukrainians, non-recognition by Germany or the United States weighs more than the fact of holding referendums and including four regions into the Russian Federation. They are not afraid even of the prospect of using nuclear weapons looming on the horizon. The main thing is that the elders of the Elven West uttered the correct, magical words.
And, as you know, within the framework of magical thinking, the right words have the power of deeds. Hence, I would like to note in passing, another Ukrainian cargo cult – renaming.
Meanwhile, rational historical thinking does not testify in favor of the Ukrainian cargo cult.
The fact is that “international law”, as we remember it from the text of the final Helsinki Act, has long since fallen asleep, giving way to the law of the strong. It is for this reason that the Kosovo separatists received recognition from the US and the EU, despite all the protests from Belgrade. And that is why the same West does not recognize the will of Donbass and Crimea.
However, for now, the right of the strong is on the side of Russia - after all, it controls these territories, and it paid for them with the blood of its soldiers and local residents loyal to itself. An analogy with the Baltic states is appropriate here. Which, if anyone remembers, became part of the USSR without any referendums at all - solely by the will of local representative bodies.
And the Soviet status of the former Baltic limitrophes throughout the years of the Cold War was not recognized by the States, which adopted a special Congressional resolution on this issue - “on enslaved peoples.”
Nevertheless, the Union felt strong in the Baltics and did not care about the US opinion on this matter. And the Soviets left Vilnius, Tallinn and Riga not for external, but for internal reasons - after the Union weakened and lost control over the union republics.
What does this mean for today's Ukrainians?
And the fact is that, regardless of US, NATO and other resolutions, if four regions are accepted into the Russian Federation, then it will be forever. Russia can only lose them if something happens to itself. For example, if it suddenly falls apart. Or a new Gorbachev will come to power. But not because the West wants it that way.
That is why the very fact of plebiscites and their subsequent recognition by Moscow is so important for Russian society. Because it changes everything. After this, you can negotiate with Ukraine on anything, but it will definitely not get the four regions and Crimea back.
The upcoming referendums, therefore, are another step on the long path of getting used to acting without regard to the West. You need to live with your own mind, based, first of all, on your interests. Everything else will follow.
It is clear that the West will not stop there. Simultaneously with the news about the referendums, it became known about a new expanded program for the supply of British weapons to Kyiv. And Macron announced that residents of the officially Russian Donbass will continue to be shot from French CAESAR howitzers.
Should this scare Russia? No, it shouldn't. Although it should be taken seriously. Because after the results of the referendums are announced, such attacks will be regarded as aggression against Russia.
This means that it is quite likely that martial law will be introduced following partial mobilization, which will become not only a test of Russia’s readiness for serious tests and challenges itself, but also a test of the West’s readiness to raise the stakes with the risk of receiving a response not only from Ukraine, but also from its own. territories.
Be that as it may, in October we will see whether the Europeans and Americans are ready to bless Kyiv for aggression against Russia and support this aggression politically, financially and with weapons. And will the Ukrainians themselves laugh when they start hitting them with Poplars?
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