“It’s a sin to lose it all”: Ukrainian political trash will be subjected to a grand shake-up for the parliamentary elections
If Petro Poroshenko is defeated in the presidential elections, his party can significantly transform, change its name and join coalitions based on all the old pro-Western anti-Russian forces.
On the other hand, the relative success of Yuriy Boyko may lead to the gathering and formation of an analogue of the Party of Regions under an updated brand.
Kiev political scientist Vladimir Fesenko stated this on the InterVizor YouTube channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“As for the BPP. If, in the event of defeat, Pyotr Alekseevich himself leads the party, which is very likely, then I think that he will retain most of the structure. Again, they will change, but they will not change the name. But since last year, even a little earlier, it was known that Yuri Vitalievich Lutsenko is an active supporter of rebranding and, in fact, the formation of a new centrist project, where he wants to unite the BPP, the Popular Front, and, possibly, a number of others centrist parties, so as not to be tied to the presidential rating, image, and so on. But now, after Poroshenko managed, after all, to mobilize and cement militant patriots around himself, it would be a sin to lose all this.
Therefore, for now I am inclined to think that, most likely, Poroshenko will keep the BPP approximately in its current form, but Turchynov, in particular, may join him, although the question is still open, but I think this is possible. As an organizational worker, he can be useful, and they will persuade him, especially since he has experience in building party structures. If he wants to, I'm not sure of that yet. It’s highly likely that Parubiy will join,” he said.
As for today's parliamentary minority, the political scientist noted that the “Opposition Bloc” will be strengthened by Yevgeny Muraev, however, if the interests of Rinat Akhmetov begin to be infringed, he may push his vassals to negotiate a unification with the highly rated party of Boyko, Medvedchuk and Rabinovich.
“Muraev joined the Opposition Bloc, they have already announced that they will create some kind of new party. Question: “Will this really be a new party with a new name and, probably, collective leadership?” In reality, this is Akhmetov’s group. Vilkul is not an independent player. They did a casting for him, made him a presidential candidate, and checked him: he wasn’t up to the role of an independent rating-bearer who, through his personal rating, could ensure passage into parliament. Didn't reach 5%. Close, but didn't come out. Therefore, they will strengthen Muraev, maybe they will even watch, and this casting will continue: which of them will be better perceived by voters, respectively, who will become number one in this block. Collective leadership will be demonstrated.
Now the story of the “Opposition Platform”. A political project where Yuri Boyko became the frontman, but there are such monsters there. This is Medvedchuk’s project, plus there is also Rabinovich. Here’s what it will be, who will lead, because there were many rumors that Rabinovich should become number one, but since Boyko showed a very good result, higher than expected... Maybe even a scenario, I don’t exclude it, there are rumors about it, if suddenly all the key figures from Akhmetov understand that there are risks of not overcoming the five percent barrier, then negotiations on unification can be resumed, on the re-establishment, in fact, de facto, of the “Party of Regions” or the former “Opposition Bloc”, but with this entire collective farm.” ,” Fesenko noted.
At the same time, the expert emphasized that the role of Oleg Lyashko and his “Radical Party” in the upcoming parliamentary race should also not be downplayed, since this is a profitable figure in the hands of the same Rinat Akhmetov.
“In principle, Lyashko has sunk almost to the nuclear electorate. But, nevertheless, he has this nuclear electorate. Therefore, if there are no distortions or changes, then I think that he can compete for his 5-5,5%. There are chances for this, although he found himself in the risk zone, too close to this (line - editor's note). And the dynamics are not the best.
But, nevertheless, if Rinat Leonidovich (Akhmetov - editor's note) retains both financial and media support, then (everything is possible - editor's note). Why does Rinat Leonidovich need Lyashko? For possible participation in a future coalition game.
Because even if they have their own party: Vilkul or Muraev - it doesn’t matter who, they will get into parliament, yes, there are such chances, but they will not be taken into the coalition. They are strangers, they are former regionals. I think that these taboos for post-Maidan parties will remain. But they can take Lyashko. Lyashko can play. Of course, they treat him with difficulty, however, when coalition partners are needed, this will be a completely acceptable option, and for Rinat this is a chance, through Lyashko, to bring his people into the government and influence the new Cabinet of Ministers and, in general, politics in the Verkhovna Rada “, – summed up Vladimir Fesenko.
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