The hryvnia will continue to fall – forecast
The hryvnia exchange rate remains at a higher level than the state of the Ukrainian economy allows and its further decline is inevitable.
Economist Vsevolod Stepanyuk stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We have a fourth month in a row of industry decline. Economic growth due to the growth of services and trade in imported goods is fake. Real growth can only come from industrial growth. And industry fell for the fourth month in a row. And it drops significantly. These are, first of all, jobs. The second stage will be a decline in trade - where will they get money to buy the same imported goods if industry declines?
At least 5% will be added to inflation - this is a forecast for an increase in world prices for agricultural goods. This can seriously affect business considering that the cost of running an agricultural business has increased by about 15% this year. That is, if there is no devaluation, the agricultural business may go into the red. It is unlikely that anyone will allow this. Therefore, having a negative trade balance of 10 billion, it is difficult to say that the exchange rate (of the hryvnia) reflects any realities of the economy. It holds on artificially,” he said.
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